Capitalogix

RoboForm: the Best Password Manager and Form-Filler

Here's something that I use many times, every day, and still think is a terrific piece of software.

Besides completely automating password entry and form-filling, RoboForm it allows you to: 

• Manage your passwords and log-in automatically. 
• Fill long registration and checkout forms with one click. 
• Encrypt your passwords to achieve complete security. 
• Generate random passwords to maximize password strength. 
• Back-up and synchronize passwords between computers. 
• Fight Phishing and defeat Keyloggers.

This tool will save you time and help keep you safe on an increasingly dangerous web. Here is a screenshot of the toolbar it installs in your browser.

 

There is no need to remember passwords anymore ... and even better, it keeps track of web addresses too (like bank and credit-card sites or any site you need to enter your member credentials). Type a few letters into the RoboForm search bar, click the website it suggests, then it takes you to the appropriate address and fills in the log-in credentials, automatically. It's fast, safe, and easy.

Lots of Ways to Use It.

RoboForm has a version that runs from a USB stick (so you can take it with you anywhere and use it without installing anything on someone else's computer). There are also versions for various smart-phones, including the iPhone. In addition, it links to their tremendous file synchronization tool, which is also worth taking a look at.

RoboForm was named PC Magazine Editor's Choice, and CNET Download.com's Software of the Year.

I've used this software for many years, and watched it get better and smarter. The author never tried to charge an upgrade fee, and continues to add new features and more intelligent algorithms to fill-out web forms as they continue to evolve.

All-in-all, this is a high-quality utility worth having on your computer. Hope that helps.

Capitalogix Commentary 10/25/09

Traders are starting to sell into strength.  That is something to watch.

This Heat Map, from FinViz, shows that last Friday was a tough day in the markets.  Most everything was red.  However, Amazon was up almost 27%.  And Microsoft had a pretty good day too.  Realize that the averages would have been even weaker without those outlier performances.

 

But big up-moves on big down days are another sign of volatility, confusion and disagreement.  These are simply things I've learned to notice. 

Price is still the primary indicator.  So keep an eye on the trend-line of your choice.

Items In the Rear-View Mirror May Only Be Half as Big as They Seemed.

Why isn't the world beating a path to our markets, driving-up prices and volume?  Perhaps because they don't see our market the same way we do. 

This next chart caught my eye because it shows our 20% rally (since May) is less than a 10% rally, when it is measured in Euros instead of Dollars.

 

A similar phenomena is playing-out with Gold too.

Venture Capital Charts are Eye-Opening ... But Not Wallet-Opening.

The third quarter was rough for VCs, with 17 firms raising just $1.6 billion. That's the fewest number of firms to raise money in 15 years; and it's the smallest amount of money raised since Q1 2003, says the National Venture Capital Association.

How tough was it?  Venture Capital funding fell 42% through the third quarter compared with last year, and had an 81% drop quarter-to-quarter from a year ago.

 

The more I think about this, the less it worries me.  There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, and I believe that we just aren't in the stage of the cycle where late-majority money flows to speculative investments.  There is a similar situation going on in the M&A cycle too.

When the longer-term economic recovery gets moving, so will the money.

The Jobs Flu.

The real virus affecting the economy is unemployment. 

For example, Sun says it is about to cut 3,000 jobs.  Frankly, I hear chatter from a number of companies planning to reduce headcount in meaningful and painful ways.  Bottom Line: Without a clear path to more sales, the pressure to make numbers is driving further reductions.

It seems several things are thinning the workforce.

President Obama declared swine flu a national emergency.  Officials described the move as similar to a declaration ahead of a hurricane making landfall; though perhaps it was more a "call to action," like how they hand out Nobel Peace Prizes.

 

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• What Happens When the Fed's Buying Binge Ends? (WSJ)
• McKinsey Says Global Capital Markets Entering a New Era (McKinsey)
• Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs & Growth Outlook. (WSJ)
• Bank of America Lost $1 Billion in Q3, & It's Now Testing Support. (NYTimes)
• Great Chart of Google's Long Road Back To $500 (BusinessInsider)
• Nokia Slaps Apple with Lawsuit about Wireless Patents. (Forbes)
• Some Reasons Not to Care about Dow 10K. (CuriousCapitalist)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• A $1 Million Research Bargain for Netflix, & Maybe a Model for Others. (NYTimes)
• Forbes Lists the 50 Most Influential Management Gurus. (Forbes)
• Does Social Media Mark the End of the Email Era? (WSJ)
• 54% of CIOs Forbid Use of Social Networks at Their Companies. (WallSt&Tech)
• Gout: The Missing Chapter from Good Calories, Bad Calories. (Ferriss)
• Study - Touch Money And You Feel Less Pain. (CreditCards)
• Disney Offers Refunds on Baby Einstein. (TDB)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

New Version 4 of Shift Happens Video

Last week I wrote that my son (and his generation) won't communicate the way we do.

For example, he used 9,827 text messages and 564 MB of data on his phone this month.

I'm not going to pretend that I understand how I would use that many messages ... But I'm beginning to understand that he does.

A decade ago, I couldn't have conceived the way we use trading technology today.  The scope and scale of what's possible would have seemed like an improbable science fiction plot.

And that is the point.  Some things seem like nonsense (or magic), until they become science and way things are done.

New Version 4 of Shift Happens Video

Fascinating presentation of facts, stats, and insights about how technology (like the internet) has been changing the world. Some of the tech that we take for granted is now at an inflection point because of the sheer mass of late-adopters.

It is worth watching and thinking about ... as someone living in these changing times ... and in terms of how these changing times shift the game and create a whole new set of opportunities.

While similar to the post on how Social Media is changing everything ... this presentation focuses on the bigger picture and has a more general business tone. 

I like the new design and the added content; yet, found the music a bit distracting.

We are moving forward more quickly than ever.  What you thought you knew about the economy, technology, innovation, and the world are probably out-of-date. I can't wait to see what comes next.

• Here is a link to a transcription of the presentation.
• Here is a link to the author's blog.
• Here is a link to the Shift Happens Project.

Capitalogix Commentary 10/18/09

Dow 10,000 - Version 2.0.

SNL made a joke that hitting Dow 10K was different this time.  The difference was that 15 million unemployed Americans cheered while they watched CNBC on their couch in their pajamas.

 

The U.S. Equity Indices continue to perform well.  The economy, however, is sending mixed signals.  At this point, some would argue that any positive economic signal is a welcome signal.

Mixed Signals: Two Charts Giving Us Different Views Into a Potential Economic Recovery.

The first chart shows that unemployment is still growing faster than new job growth.  Recent readings show six unemployed people for each potential job opening.  A glance at the chart shows that ratio is usually 2:1 (rather than 6:1).  I'll be watching this indicator, and will take even a small improvement as a positive sign for the economy.

 

Speaking of positive signs of economic recovery, the next chart does show a hopeful turn of events (based on increasing Capacity Utilization).

 

Utilization has increased for three straight months, and is up from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967). Capacity Utilization had decreased in 17 of the previous 18 months.  An increase in capacity utilization is usually an indicator that a recession is over.  Let's hope it keeps up.

When In An Up-Trend, Like This, Don't Fight the Fed.

I was reading "A Dash of Insight" and saw this investment hypothesis: "The government is on a mission.  You may not like the policies, but as an investor, you fight it at your peril."  In other words, don't fight the Fed.

Recently, that has been a painful lesson to Bears trying to short the rally.  The result, a dramatically declining short interest.  Here is a chart from Bespoke, illustrating that point.

 

At a certain point, the lack of sellers becomes the contrarian indicator that we are near a top.  Again, in trending markets, too much thinking is dangerous.  Just consider this another indicator to watch when the up-trend finally breaks.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Impacts of High-Frequency Trading - Manipulation, Distortion or Improvement? (Wharton)
• Blue Chips Top 10,000 for the First Time in a Year. (WSJ)
• Loose Monetary Policy: When Will Wall Street's Biggest Gravy Train Slow? (WSJ)
• Goldman Sachs Sees a "Perfect Storm" for M&A. (StreetInsider)
• Venture Capital Exits Dallas and Other Places Outside of Silicon Valley. (WSJ)
• Pessimistic Commentators Remain Anything But Convinced by the Rally. (Economist)
• Bloomberg Buys BusinessWeek From McGraw-Hill. (StreetInsider)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Mossberg Gives Windows 7 a Good Review. (WSJ)
• White House Tells Fox Network News to Take a Hike. (Newser)
• Patent Auctions Offer Protections to Inventors. (NYTimes)
• Facebook Has a Happiness Index Drawn From Posts. (NYTimes)
• Anthropologist: Modern Male Is 'Worst' Man Ever. (Newser)
• Un-Tapped Potential: Autistic Savant Draws Cities from Memory. (Wiltshire)
• Cool Chart of Apple's Path To 2 Billion iPhone App Downloads. (BusinessInsider)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Social Media is Changing Everything

My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

 Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

• My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
• I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
• My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
• My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why ... some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

Welcome to the World of Socialnomics.  This video has a bunch of interesting statistics ... and is fun to watch. 

Other Resources:

• Here is a link to a short-version of this video.
• This reminds me of the "Shift Happens!" video.
• Worth Looking At ... Here are the Stats.

Sparks of Innovation

Here is a video reminder that a small insight can make possible radically different results.

Was this just a proof of concept ... or will it be the catalyst to more.  To some it might be little more than science fiction ... to others it may have been the open door to something completely new and different.

Thoughts Do Become Things. 

Here is an example where a simple text-book idea really transformed lives.  And it is a good story.

William Kamkwamba, from Malawi, is a born inventor. When he was 14, he built an electricity-producing windmill from spare parts and scrap, working from rough plans he found in a library book called "Using Energy" and modifying them to fit his needs. The windmill he built powers four lights and two radios in his family home. Now it is changing his homeland.

Here is a link to more about William Kamkwamba and his TedTalk Videos.

Here is a link to the book: The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind: Creating Currents of Electricity and Hope.

The Game Is Changing

Mergers and Acquisitions are likely to increase before the next big bull run.  This chart shows that we aren't there yet.

 

We're at the point in the economic recovery cycle where a lot of companies have folded, or will soon fold. On the other hand, the survivors are starting to see the clearing ... or at least the light at the end of the tunnel. Consequently, I expect to see more merger and acquisition activity at the next pull-back.

This will help the strong get stronger ... But it will also serve as a catalyst to new growth and new leaders.

M&A Isn't the Only Way.

This is a great environment to incubate what comes next. During downturns, some people lose their money, business, or hope. During that same period, other people recognize and seize the opportunity to create something great.

There so much talent on the street right now looking for work ... yet there is even more looking for something that inspires them.

At the same time, technology continues to get better. And that just means it continues to get cheaper and easier to implement great ideas and scalable businesses.

Consequently, I think a lot of talent is going to switch from the confines of corporate America to more entrepreneurial ventures. Bright minds will shed cost-cutting cultures and management-by-committee for virtual teams of talented individuals looking to innovate and operate more nimbly.

Something Old is New Again.

Sometimes new things come from familiar faces.  There are many successful entrepreneurs who have been to the brink, and back. What's interesting is that they tend to succeed faster, later in their careers. It makes sense if you think about it; losing money or facing a setback doesn't take away the other skills that they had ... so their next venture is easier for them simply because they are more experienced and better seasoned.

Nonetheless, I'm confident that we will soon see a new wave of the business leaders emerge. I'm curious who you think the likely winners will be?

Capitalogix Commentary 10/11/09

This was a good week for bullish traders.  Sure volume was light for the rally.  But selling was even lighter.  In a trending market, thinking too much can be detrimental to your wallet.  And from March until now, the trend points up.

What Does the Bigger Picture Show?

A weekly chart of the SPY, which is the ETF for the S&P 500, shows price coming into a cluster of resistance.  There are three things that jump out at me.  First, we are at the 50% Retracement of the October 2007 to March 2009 downswing.  Second, price is also are trying to break through the long-term downtrend line from that bear swing.  And third, there is a significant Gap (which often acts as resistance) at that same level from last October.

The good news is a move above this level would be quite bullish.

Can We Move Higher?

The market does not directly reflect the economy.  So price can go higher, even without a real economic recovery.  For traders, the question is how long the rally will be sustainable?  The answer is simple; it is sustainable until price breaks the trendline. 

It is a little tricky, here, because we have the battle of two trendlines. 

What About the Economy?

As for the economy, consumer spending has been weak, so expect that corporate revenues will continue to drag. And companies straining to realize their inflated expectations for 2010-11 earnings will continue to focus on cutting costs, which translates into cutting jobs.  Unfortunately this likely results in even less consumer spending ...

Where Are Consumers Spending?

This chart from the New York Times tells an important story.  It shows where consumers are spending ... and where they aren't.  Last year, consumers pulled back on spending and the retail sector suffered. But not all retailers are faring worse than they did a few years ago. 

Against a baseline of spending levels in 2003, sales in computer stores have continued to rise. Restaurant and liquor-store sales are at much higher levels, and purchases at warehouse stores are up nearly 50 percent.

Still, in major retail divisions like home furnishings and clothing, sales faltered in 2007 and are now below their levels of 2003.

Does a Weak Dollar Matter?

This chart series from Bespoke highlights one reason that a weak dollar matters.  While gold is at record highs in dollar terms, the commodity is still down 10% from its highs when priced in Euros or Yen.  This indicates that the strength is a function of a weaker dollar rather than a real increase from demand.

The same logic applies to the recent market rally.  If the dollar gets stronger, expect the market to move down.  Consequently, many traders are watching the dollar as it tries to bottom.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• What's Luck Got to Do With It? The Math of Gambling. (NewScientist)
• Women, Testosterone & Finance - Risky Business? (Economist)
• Private Equity's Return Dilemma - Hope Dwindling for a New Buyout Boom.(WSJ)
• Please Do Feed the Bears - The Financial World Needs Its Pessimists. (Economist)
• Return of Day Traders Drives Volume; But Who Is Sitting-Out? (WSJ)
• Uncommonly Clever Economic Indicators. (Forbes)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Microsoft Offers Free Security Essentials Anti-malware Package. (InformationWeek)
• More Cases of Autism in U.S. Kids Than Previously Realized. (CNN)
• A Credible Kindle Killer? Competitors Team-up to Take on Amazon. (Forbes)
• Tracing the Origins of Human Empathy. (WSJ)
• Allocate Hours for Maximum Productivity in Your Perfect Day. (ETR)
• Samurai Mind Training for Modern American Warriors. (Time)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Brazil's Campaign Video

If you're still trying to figure out why Chicago lost the Olympic bid, this RIO 2016 commercial might explain it. 

Nicely done; short and compelling.  It certainly makes me want to visit.

Capitalogix Commentary 10/04/09

The Trend Is Up; So Discipline Says Buy the Dip.

Most of the U.S. Equity Indices (Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the MidCap Index) have pulled-back to their 50-Day moving averages and short-term support.  So have many sectors, including: Financials, Metals, Energy, Drugs, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary.  This would be a likely place for bulls, looking for a continued rally, to put some extra cash to work in the markets by buying the dip.

 

Tech is still leading the rally.  So I'm watching that area closely for continued strength.  A lack of buying here is a warning sign.

The Market Is Getting Jiggy.

One thing tempering my confidence in the "buy the dip" strategy is that I noticed a lot more "mischief-bars" recently.  These head-fake moves show-up on charts as jaggy spikes, and often shake-out weak holders ... only to reverse sharply.  Here is a chart of the S&P 500 from Tim Knight's Slope of Hope site.  The yellow sections highlight areas where it is easy to see the spikes in volatility. 

 

This type of behavior often happens near major trend changes, and reflects the disagreement between bulls and bears.

Does the Recent Weekly Buying Climax Signal Exhaustion?

For those looking for further evidence of a turning point, Investors Intelligence recently released a chart showing major buy and sell climaxes in the S&P 500.  As you can see, they often come at major turning points for the markets.  The Blue Bars show Weekly Buying Climaxes, which occur when a stock makes a 52-week high and then closes lower for the week. This represents distribution from strong hands to weak ones and most often occur around market highs.  And the Red Bars mark Weekly Selling Climaxes, which occur when a stock makes a 52-week low and then closes higher for the week. This represents distribution from weak hands to strong ones and most often occur around market lows. 

 

This chart shows that there were 380 total Weekly Buying Climaxes as of the end of last week (see the blue bar at the bottom right of the chart). This was the highest buying total since June 2007 (which is the blue bar circled in red, towards the bottom left of the chart) and eclipses the extreme reached at the October 2007 top. Investors Intelligence notes, that after four months, climax signals for those who sell into buying climaxes and buy into selling climaxes are correct about 80 percent of the time. So another indicator has flashed a “warning” that suggests we be especially attentive to a trend change.

Employment Numbers.

Of course the other thing weighing down the hopes of economic recovery is unemployment.  The numbers haven't been improving.  Moreover, I expect to start hearing about the next wave of big cuts (that cut muscle, and not just corporate fat). Recent quarterly results showing corporate profits were often based on cost-cutting, which may not be sustainable. Revenue is a more telling indicator.

 

This is something that bears watching.  The next topic bears watching too.

All You Need to Know About High Frequency Trading.

Here is a short video from the Jon Stewart Show.  It portrays High-Frequency Trading in a less than flattering light. It was funny; yet made some non-trivial points.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Cash Cow - High-Frequency Trading
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Ron Paul Interview

Ultimately I believe that innovation and intelligence can lead to competitive advantage. And, generally, that is a good thing. However, even a good thing can be taken too far. This is an area that needs some common-sense legislation and oversight. High Frequency Trading makes it too easy to manipulate price and markets.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• S&P Says Stock Buybacks At Lowest Level On Record. (StreetInsider)
• Is Wall Street Taking a Chance on Risk, Again. (DealBook)
• Fretful Investors Sidelined by Rally. (WSJ)
• Kass - Pokes Some Fun at the "Dumb Money" Behind the Rally. (TheStreet)
• More Than Half of Residential Mortgages Made by Just 3 Large Banks. (WSJ)
• If Lehman Hadn't Failed, Would the Crisis Have Happened Anyway? (Economist)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Did Kindle edition of Dan Brown's 'Lost Symbol' Out-Sell Hardcover Editions? (WSJ)
• The "Lost Symbol" Shines Spotlight on Freemasons in Washington. (USNews)
• Leading Research Universities Launch Futurity Online Research Portal. (Duke)
• Simplifying Supplements: Modern Diet is Energy Rich, Yet Nutrient Poor. (Ode)
• Four Things that May Sabotage Your Weight-Loss (USNews)
• Business Intelligence Gives Way to Operational Intelligence. (Forbes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.