Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Insights From CogX – On AI and Emerging Technologies

    Cogxlogo-600x400While I was at Camp Kotok, my son found CogX, an AI and emerging technologies conference held in London. They had speakers from academia, governments, and industry to give a more holistic view of AI and emerging technologies. 

    They put all their keynotes online, for free.

    He watched a few and sent me his feedback. Here are a couple of his key takeaways, but I encourage you to watch yourself and make your own.

    Experts and neophytes alike are making a lot of common mistakes

    We recently shared a video on this topic. Myopia is a big issue even with experts. People get distracted by the sea of opportunities and forget to focus on one. 

    As well, culturally, we get caught up in exciting long-term applications, like self-driving cars, instead of capitalizing on low-hanging fruit. 

    "Don't confuse a clear vision for a short time horizon"

    The key to moving AI to the next level is putting power in the hands of the many 

    The Googles and the Facebooks of the world are accomplishing a lot – and tackling real problems, but their efficiency is next to nil. 

    There are also a lot of niche or esoteric problems that they'll likely never attempt. Small businesses have the ability to be much more creative, agile, and risky. 

    Small business powers economies, and it also powers AI.  That being said, smaller companies can learn a lot from the current digital leaders. For example, learning to apply basic AI, instead of complex applications half-finished sitting on a shelf, or, by using AI on supporting aspects of their business instead of jumping straight to overhauling their core business. 

    We're still very early on in AI's lifecycle

    The secret to better AI is in better analysis of better data. The applications are secondary. 

    Many people are focused to heavily on the vision, without taking into account the steps to get there. Infrastructure and other foundational aspects need to be in place. 

    We need to scale investment in projects and the information available in industries. 

    Today's big force functions are Data and Talent. We still haven't ironed out the interaction between humans and AI. As we make that easier, you'll see average people being able to create wonderful things with AI – instead of creation being limited to PhDs. 

    Eric Daimler, during a roundtable on AI Capital, referenced Jevon's Paradox – the idea that increasing fuel efficiency doesn't decrease fuel consumption, it increases it. He equates this to the current bottlenecks in AI, and where AI will end up. People didn't predict the car, they didn't predict the app store, and they can't predict what the future of AI will look like. 

    What Does The Future of AI Look Like? 

    Charles-Edouard Bouée, of Roland Berger, sees a mass evolution of AI coming – with AI being anywhere and everywhere. 

    China currently has an advantage due to their size, policies, and willingness to leapfrog technologies. As competition increases, future leaders will leverage 6 points:

    • Data Availability and Usage – how much data is your country/company tracking?
    • Mathematical capabilities – AI is the new name for mathematics
    • Investment Power – are companies putting their money where their mouth is?
    • Applied Mathematics & Physics – the emphasis is on applied
    • Non-Conventional Thinking – are your applications/approaches novel?
    • Company Adoption – For countries, are you seeing adoption by the public as well?

    The top-tier companies were created in technological waves. During the industrial revolution, leaders were in commodities – Steel, Oil, Railroad. Intel, Cisco, and more were built on the personal computer, the internet, and mobile phones. Apple, Google, and Amazon were built on digital and smartphones. 

    The next wave is going to be built on AI. It's going to be built on AI becoming ubiquitous and commoditized. AI is at its most powerful when it becomes human-centric, not just problem centric.  The transition is in human/AI connection and on building platforms that enable mass-interaction with AI. Once we've accomplished that, we'll see another explosion in AI.

    Think about our infatuation with the Internet-Of-Things. As a people, we've become much more experience-centric than product-centric.  You've also seen it in VR/AR – and especially with millennials.

    What are your thoughts?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 23rd, 2019

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Camp Kotok: Economists In Nature

    I was just in Maine at Camp Kotok, a private gathering of economists, fund managers, and other financial industry professionals. 

     

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    There was no cell phone service … so people had to talk with each other.  Everyone went outside.  And, people continued to fish, even when it rained.  Craziness.

    At last year's Camp Kotok, I did this interview with Bob Eisenbeis,  Cumberland Advisors' Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist.  Check it out. 

     

    Cumberland Advisors via YouTube

    AI is removing the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes from financial decision making. We’re at the beginning of a cycle of progress that is hard to imagine … and easy to underestimate.

    Ultimately, I think AI will transform the planet much like electricity did.  What about you?

    Lots of cool discussions up there. Call me if you want to talk about it. 

  • Committing To A Bigger Future

    I'm a big fan of picking a Big Hairy Audacious Goal (sometimes called a "BHAG") and taking actions that move you in that direction. 

    I'm also a big fan of Strategic Coach's Bigger Future exercise.  It is a 20-year planning exercise where you plan out your commitments and goals to yourself, your family, your career, and your legacy. 

    While doing this, I realized that my ideal next 20 years involves taking Capitalogix to the next level (and beyond). 

    As a result, I recently held a two-hour town hall session with everybody in Capitalogix.  You'll find a 5-minute compilation of highlights at the end of this article. 

    Before I share with you, I want to take time to bring you up to speed on Capitalogix's history. Some may know the story, but many of you are new.  It's important context for the video and for Capitalogix's future. 

    A Brief History of Capitalogix

    Times and conditions change so rapidly that we must keep our aim constantly focused on the future. – Walt Disney

    In the 90's, I left a corporate securities law practice to start a company that was an early pioneer in automation, intelligent agents, and rule-based processing.(it is almost embarrassing to compare that to AI today).  Nonetheless, we ended up on the Inc. 500 list, won lots of awards and had a great time.  Little did I know how important that would be to what we are doing now.

    Life intervened … and 1999 was a rough year for me.  My dad died of cancer, I got divorced, and I sold my company. That year inspired my TED Talk on the Time Value of A Life Worth Living, and has inspired the past 20 years of my life. 

    I threw myself into trading. At first, I was a fundamental trader.  But I quickly threw myself into Elliott Wave theory, technical analysis, quantitative analysis, and everything else I could get my hands on. I spent hours on end marking up charts and creating early algorithmic trading systems – predecessors to how we trade today. 

    I also hired my first two employees – Gabriel and Sean. My dining room became their office. I started to view trading as a business, rather than a hobby. The thought forms that would become our framework for understanding markets were starting to gel. 

     

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    By 2015, we had 20+ employees working out of my house, and I realized we'd outgrown my home. Here is a picture from the dining room before the move.

     

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    After a brief time with employees in three different offices (including one of our partner's offices) we found our current office. 

    Moving in to our new office represented a positive shift in culture and focus – and another step toward our goals. 

     

    Where We Are Today

    The power for creating a better future is contained in the present moment: You create a good future by creating a good present. – Eckhart Tolle

    We are committed to revolutionizing decision science (making better decisions faster). We're creating the future we've envisioned.

    Yet, for all we've accomplished, we're driven every day to be better than we were yesterday. That drive comes from that big hairy audacious goal and that 20-year vision.

    It comes from knowing who we want to be tomorrow. 

     

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    Committing To The Future

     

    It means that we're going to have to have new people and new ways of doing things because the recipe for getting here isn't the recipe for getting there. As much as I respect and love you for "here." I respect and love you enough to hold you accountable for "there." – Howard Getson

     

    It hasn't always been easy – but building Capitalogix has been an intensely rewarding passion.

    Over the next 20 years, there are a ton of people I want to impact and a lot of goals I want to accomplish. Capitalogix is the way I intend to do that.

    I look forward to you all being a part of it as well. 

    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 16th, 2019

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Remembering My Father

    This year, I spent some extra time thinking about my father – and his influence on me and countless others. It's been 20 years since my last Father's Day with him. 

     

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    My Dad was incredibly loving and demanding.  I recognize how much his vision of what I could become helped shape me. 

    For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, my dad came down from the stands onto the field.  He hugged me and told me that he knew I could do it. Then, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was a little disappointed?  "Disappointed?" I asked. "But, Dad, I won."  He looked at me and said, "Yeah, winning is great … but you didn't throw a personal best."   He was proud and he loved me.   He recognized that winning was important … but he wanted to remind me that the other throwers weren't my real competition. 

    In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

    My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He taught me that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted and complacent.

    One of his favorite sayings was "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things. For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.  The point is that setting higher standards is one of the best ways to ensure a better life.

    As time goes on, I recognize how much of him is inside me. 

     

    Nick Offerman via My Tales of Whisky

    Many of the lessons he taught me became the lessons I taught my children – and my company. It's easy to focus on the big stories and the big lessons – but as I look back and consider what had the biggest impact, it was what happened in between … It was his incredibly consistent and unconditional love and his focus on what was possible.

    The standards I hold people to are high, and it can be tough for them to meet those standards.  Hopefully, they understand that it's because I love them (as my dad loved me) and that I see the greatness in them and available to them. 

    Happy Father's Day weekend!

  • Visualizing The AI Revolution

    I'm surprised how often I see people who are bearish on Artificial Intelligence. Many are stuck in science fiction's depictions – sentience, personification, etc.. Modern AI is very different from science fiction predictions, but is still exciting. (Here's an infographic debunking 8 common AI myths)

    Modern AI does many things and has many applications, but ultimately it's relatively faceless. It works in the background, impacts everything it touches, and silently collects vast lakes of data. AI may not be Star Trek's "Data," but it is transforming our economy at warp speed. 

    TechJury has put together an infographic on the history of AI until today. It highlights a number of key inflection points, AI's impact on today's economy, and which countries and companies are leading the pack. 

    Screen Shot 2019-06-04 at 2.08.56 PMvia TechJury (Click To See Full Infographic)

    AI By The Numbers (Taken From TechJury)

    • By 2025, the global AI market is expected to be almost $60 billion; in 2016 it was $1.4 billion
    • The number of AI startups has grown 14x since 2000
    • Investment in AI startups has grown 6x since 2000
    • 77% of the devices we use feature one form of AI or another
    • 84% of global businesses see AI as a competitive advantage
    • Google analysts believe that next year robots will be smart enough to mimic complex human behavior like jokes and flirting

     

    To me, it's clear that AI is the major driving force of tomorrow. AI continues to perform increasingly impressive tasks. Last week, I saw an AI that can make realistic video renderings from one picture, and Google's DeepMind beat humans in a multiplayer shooting game, operating on a single metric. 

    If you're as excited about the potential for AI as I am, here are some articles I wrote that you may have missed:

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 9th, 2019

    Tuesday was the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Protests. Here's a video of Chinese college students being asked about the event. It is a pretty interesting look at censorship and fear of government consequences for lack of free speech. 

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

     

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

     

  • 75th Anniversary of D-Day

    June 6th, 1944 … the day we stormed the beaches of Normandy.  It was the largest seaborne invasion in history. The invasion created a foothold that allowed Allied forces to expand through France. 

    The memorial in France this year was a particularly touching event with the many surviving World War 2 soldiers being well into their 90s. 

    "A generation whose unconquerable spirit shaped the post-war world. They didn't boast. They didn't fuss. They served" – Theresa May

    A 97-year old veteran paratrooper, Tom Rice, commemorated the day by once again dropping into the field he landed in on that fateful night. 

    Check out the video. It's an inspiration. 

     

    via TIME

    Seems like a friendlier welcome than a sea of German soldiers. As an extra fun fact, Teddy Roosevelt stormed the beaches of Normandy at 56 with a heart condition,  arthritis, and a cane. He was the oldest man to take part in the invasion. 

    Our society is built on the backs of many strong men! I'm thankful for their sacrifices. 

  • The Rise of the Megacity

    Population growth is an interesting measure. Historically, growth has been slow.  But something changed that.  And the implications are stunning.

    Scientists estimate that humans have existed for over 130,000 years. It took until 1804 for us to reach 1 Billion. We doubled that population by 1927 (123 years later), and then doubled it again in only 47 years later (which was 1974). 

    Early population growth was driven by the agricultural revolution. Since 1804, the industrial revolution, health and safety advances, and technology have radically improved quality of life – spurring comparatively rapid growth. 

    Screen Shot 2019-05-24 at 1.44.29 PMvia Axios (Click for an Interactive Graph)

    World population growth rates peaked in the late 1960s and have declined sharply in the past four decades, but we're still on a positive trend. We're expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, but a lot of that growth comes from developing countries – they also almost exclusively come from urban areas. 

    Urbanization: Megacities

    Since 2014, over 50% of the world's population has lived in urban areas – today it's approximately 55%. That number is growing.

    Ironically, as we grow more digitally connected, our world is shrinking and our populations are concentrating. 

    An interesting consequence of this rapid urbanization and population growth in developing countries has been the increased development of Megacities – defined as cities with populations greater than 10 million. Today, there are 33 megacities – more than triple the number in the 1990s. 

    This creates a set of interesting opportunities and challenges. 

    For example, how will these cities deal with infrastructure – sanitation, transportation, etc.

     

    Screen Shot 2019-05-24 at 2.07.03 PMvia Blackrock (Click to view full infographic)