Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Carol’s Keeping Me In Shape

    As I get older, I become more conscious of my mental and physical health. It's easy as an entrepreneur or business person to lose track of your health – but investing in your personal health can be the best thing you do for your business.

    Many of my friends now believe that with technology and a sustained focus on health & longevity, they can live past 100. They're paying attention to genetic, physiologic & biochemical makeup, cognitive function, body composition, cardiovascular performance, hormonal status, and much more. Whether they're going to live past 100 or not, I can see the daily results in the quality of their life and the way they look. 

    It's the reason I started working with APEX, Dr. Jeffrey Gladden's concierge medical wellness practice.

    They've got me eating salads, taking supplements, and thinking about what it takes to be healthy, fit, and vital. 

    The goal is to enjoy life though … Not to deprive yourself as this image portrays …

    Getting healthy

     

    Exercise is also an important part of the "healthy, fit, and vital" equation.

    With gyms being closed during the recent Quarantine, I found another tool that I fell in love with.

    Her name is Carol; an AI fitness bike that personalizes a HIIT workout for you,  based on your fitness and your preferred workout length. It makes it way easier for me to fit workouts into my schedule (and way harder to justify skipping a session). 

    Carol 

    The promise is an "hour's worth" of exercise compressed into an 8-minute workout that really only has two 20-second periods of intense effort.

    The science is sound. My experience is that it works for me.  I've done it for about two months now.  The results are undeniable (in terms of muscle tone, endurance, 20% improvement on many of the metrics tracked by the bike, etc.).

    The more you use it the smarter it gets. It automatically adjusts to give you exactly the resistance you need to keep you motivated and to continue making progress.

    I've been impressed. Working-out at home has always been a struggle for me. I've bought other tools for lifting or cardio, but they tend to end up as coat racks or space fillers. 

    Exercise has a "social" component for some people ( comes to mind). Some people need the "social" component of exercise to get through hard workouts (think Peloton or OrangeTheory.) The Carol bike doesn't fully satisfy that part of exercise … but they do a great job of keeping the session short, fun, and gamified (so that you know where you are, how you are progressing, and where you stand in the rankings).  The combination of the efficiency of the workouts – and being able to see that you are getting fitter, objectively, has been just what I needed. 

    Besides Carol's website, here is a link to check out their YouTube channel. 

    Onwards. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 21st, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Sometimes, Less Is More

    The idea of “less is more” was popularized in 1947 as an argument for minimalism. But today, more than ever, minimalism is important in all aspects of life. You can see it in the resurgence of simplistic design, or Marie Kondo, or in the re-popularization of stoicism. 

    There’s too much competition for our attention. We can’t buy everything we see on TV, deep-dive into every interesting topic we learn about on the internet, or track everything that’s happening in the world.

    Instead, we tend to focus on what is relevant or interesting to us.

    In business, there are Specialists and Generalists.  It isn’t hard to imagine that their reading lists, habits, and sources of happiness or fulfillment are probably quite different.

    The same is true for  Simplifiers and Multipliers (which is a concept that Dan Sullivan at Strategic Coach has written a book about).

    In your business career, to get to where you are, you’ve been successful at two things. You’ve simplified things, which gave you an advantage. And you multiplied things, which gave you an advantage.  Said a different way, as a simplifier, you took something that was complex for everybody else, and you made it simple. And as a multiplier, you took something that was a new solution, and you had successes multiplying it out in the world so that a lot of people could get the advantage of your simplifications.

    But the truth is most people are either primarily simplifiers or multipliers.  The best partnerships happen when you pair the two.  Amazing conversations happen when a simplifier says to a multiplier, “I’ve got this really neat solution … What would you do with it?” Each has something the other doesn’t; and the combination is often exponential.

    I am primarily a simplifier.  So, I tend to look for people or technologies to multiply what I produce.

    I shot a video on the topic. Click here to watch.

     

    The internet and global digital economy enable you to find an audience for almost anything. 

    No matter how far you niche down to find your true calling, there are likely people who are just as excited about what you do as you. 

    So, sometimes less is more.

    Are you a simplifier or a multiplier?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 14th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Lessons From 2020’s Markets

    The idea that the market is not the economy has been made very clear over these past months. While businesses continue to shutter or (if they're lucky) slowly re-open, the stock market has rallied immensely since the initial crash – in large part due to governmental efforts. The markets are so confusing right now that CNBC has given up and created a new type of market – the kangaroo market … I assume implying "jumpy" volatility. 

    IMG_3657

    The rally has only served to increase the uncertainty as people hold their breath waiting for the drop… For all that waiting, "dumb money" has been beating a lot of "intelligent" investors.

    I found an interesting visualization that shows the performance of the S&P through the performance of its underlying stocks. 

     

    via Chartfleau

    As you watch the video you can see that most of these underlying stocks are struggling – but they're being propped up by a relatively small number of stocks, including the likes of tech giants, the gold mining company Newmont Corporation and the HVAC company Carrier Global. 

    While many funds still struggle, novice investors and day traders listening to the advice of "buy low, sell high" have made staggering gains. 

    I'm not encouraging a back-to-basics approach to trading, but I think it is a good reminder that sometimes, as Da Vinci said, "simplicity is the ultimate sophistication." 

    Being in Fintech, I'm always paying attention to the newest "sophisticated" technologies, looking for a new edge – and that's valuable – but you can't throw out the baby with the bathwater. 

    So, I find myself looking for what's timeless (instead of timely) in what others are doing. 

    At a Genius Network meeting recently, Brian Tracy mentioned two key questions he asks himself (before writing a book) that I think are very insightful. 

    Would this work 20 years from now? Would this have worked 20 years ago?

    Tools and techniques change… why often doesn't matter.

    The truth is, if you don't know what your edge is … then you don't have one.  

    On a related note, if nothing is working … doing nothing is an option!

    Hope that helped. 

  • Talking AI, Analytics, and Trading With IBM

    I'll be speaking at an IBM Webinar on June 18th. The focus is on using AI, analytics, and advanced computing to improve trading research. Click here to sign-up. 

    IBM_BSFS_Webinar_SpeakerSocialTiles_LinkedIn_1200x628_Howard Getson

  • Solid Advice from MMA fighter Chael Sonnen

    Chael Sonnen is a famous retired mixed martial artist. He was also a coach on the show The Ultimate Fighter. 

    The advice in the video is fantastic – whether you're fighting in the ring or your own personal battles. 

     

    via UFC

    Silencing the voice in your head that says "you can't" is impossible, but ignoring the voice, and learning to compete with it is entirely possible. 

    Failure is an option, but it's the only option available if you don't try. Motion begets motion. And, with persistence, failure can be a stone on the path to eventual success. 

    Onwards! 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 7th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Are You A Maverick Or A Heretic?

    I have a tents problem. I keep buying tents, but I never go camping. Just kidding – I don’t own a tent. I have a tense problem – because I’m so excited about the future and what’s possible that I sometimes lose track of what’s been actualized "in real life" already.

    FutureFocus2

    Once I’ve thought it, it becomes real for me. Once I’ve figured it out and told it to someone … on some level, it's already done. And, I’m probably moving on to the next idea or challenge in my head (like: And what would that make possible?).

    I think this is common among (to use a Kolbe term) Quick Starts. I love being around entrepreneurs because a lot of them are Quick Starts, and they share this future-focused perspective. The problem, however, is that when you say something’s possible that hasn’t been proven yet, the average person responds with “no it’s not.”

    I’ve seen the pattern over and over, both in my own company and in my friend’s companies. At my company, we have a lot of data scientists – and they’re almost all naturally pessimistic. Which makes sense; if you were going to hire a personality type to be a scientist, you’d want someone who didn’t believe their hypothesis until they’ve proven it. It’s the right personality for the job, but it doesn’t mean they’re right, and it certainly doesn’t mean that approach is right for the visionaries.

    I’m not telling everyone to be visionaries. What I am saying is, if you’re naturally a visionary, feel free to embrace it, but surround yourself with people who keep you grounded in reality. We’d never have innovation if it wasn’t for you, and innovators wouldn’t ever get anything done if it wasn’t for other personality types.

    Information Is Beautiful put together an interactive list of famous ideas rejected that were later proven correct. You can filter by industry – Astronomy, Biology, Engineering, Mathematics, Medicine, Physical Sciences – and by other factors like how long the originator was a pariah, how they were treated due to their idea, and when the idea was formally adopted. Click to see the interactive version. 

    Screen Shot 2020-04-12 at 10.25.14 AMvia Information Is Beautiful

    In 895, Al-Razi believing a fever was a natural defense mechanism got him beaten.

    In 1592, Giordano Bruno believing the Sun was one of many stars got him killed. Shortly after, Galileo Galilei was imprisoned for believing the earth wasn’t the center of the solar system.

    Losing some of the stakes, in 1884 and 1903 respectively, Nikola Tesla and the Wright Brothers were ignored and rejected for their technological innovations.

    Even today you can see the initial response to visionaries like Peter Diamandis or Elon Musk.

    The status quo is comfortable, but if you’re standing still you’re moving backward.

    Are you a maverick or a heretic? You won’t know until you see it to the end. You may experience failures, but that’s the experience for your next endeavor.

    "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." – Thomas Edison

    Onwards!

  • A New Era In Spaceflight

    “Today a new era in human spaceflight begins as we once again launched American astronauts on American rockets from American soil on their way to the International Space Station, our national lab orbiting Earth…The launch of this commercial space system designed for humans is a phenomenal demonstration of American excellence and is an important step on our path to expand human exploration to the Moon and Mars.” – NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine

    Yesterday, SpaceX teamed up with NASA to launch a historic space flight … sending astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley on the "Crew Dragon"  to the Internal Space Station. Today, they officially docked on the ISS.  

    It's the final test flight before the Crew Dragon is certified for operational, long-duration missions to the ISS.

    Crew-Dragon-Spacecraft-Launchvia NASA

    This is the first time a private vehicle has carried astronauts into orbit – and is undoubtedly an important step in the future of spaceflight … and space-travel. 

    As an added bonus, for them, they're escaping our current tumultuous times here on earth.

    When I was growing up, the space race caught the public's hearts and minds.  I was a kid, but I still remember watching the lunar landing and thinking how cool that was (and it still is)!

    Think about what this makes possible!  Lots of it in our lifetimes.  Even more, if you allow yourself to dream a little.

    In the past decade, rockets, space stations, satellites, etc. were often just an afterthought or a small filler news item.  Meanwhile, A.I., Cloning, Voice Recognition, 3D Printing, Drones, and other technological advances were sexy attention-getting topics. 

    Recently, that has changed.  The space race is getting hot again.  Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX's launch is proof that we are making progress (and probably altering life's history). 

    You can watch the astronauts dock on the ISS below. Warning, docking is a slow process, and the video is 4 hours long. If you skip 3 hours and 33 minutes in, you can watch the astronauts board the ISS. Take a look.  

     

    via NASA

    With all the struggle and strife, it feels good to experience something on a scale like this. 

    Spaceflight is captivating again. Teachers can use this to excite students and create the next generation of engineers and astronauts.

    Passion in the sciences is important, and successes like this ignite passion in more than just space exploration.

    We live in exciting times …Onwards!