Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Growth of the US In 2019 (and into 2020)

    The US economy and its financial markets have proven resilient – if you look at the timeline of our history, there's almost unbridled growth. 

    For all the hiccups, issues, downturns, etc. our economy is enormous and still growing. 

    US-GDP-by-Year-Compared-to-Recessions-and-Events-v7-1600-e87avia howmuch

    In fact, our largest growth came on the backs of the Great Depression and WW2 … it makes sense, but it's a reminder of resiliency.

    Looking at 2019, we've seen volatility, fear, uncertainty – but we've also seen a banner year for the S&P 500, and continued GDP growth. 

    According to visual capitalist, the key sectors for growth this year were semiconductors, credit services, aerospace/defense, electornic equipment, and diversified machinery. Oil, wireless communications, foreign banks, apparel, and foreign telecoms took a hit. 

    Stock-market-winners-losers-2019via Visual Capitalist

    I share these images, not to say we're invincible, or that growth will continue forever, but to say that as we start the new year it's important to be optimistic and keep an eye on what's possible, not what obstacles we may face along the way. 

    Onwards!

  • Starting Your New Year The Right Way

    This is the first year that my team's plan for 2020 almost 100% matches my vision for it, without my input. I think that's a good sign that we're taking the right steps.

    We talk a lot about the vision for the next 5, 10, 20 years … but it's easy to have the same target and want to walk different paths. 

    I'm also doing a better job in my personal goals – as mentioned in October

    As we reach the last week of 2019 – and enter a new decade – I want to revisit how I think about personal New Year's resolutions. 

    Happy-new-decade

    Hopefully, you can use some of these concepts.

    • Focus on What You Want.
    • Focus on Why You Want It.
    • Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
    • Focus on the Progress.

    Below, I'll take you through an example each of the four steps.

    Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering with the Problem.

    Before I got back into my health, my first instinct was to think "I need to lose weight".  Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head, quickly translates that to something a tad more positive, yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital, and to live a healthy lifestyle".

    Blah, blah … They are just words.  What I needed was something specific, measurable and actionable.  How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner."  OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do. I can do better than that.

    Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.

    This post isn't about health and fitness, it is about the mind-set and techniques you can use to set empowering goals and plans in any situation.

    So, while I could list a lot of ways to lose weight; and I might even remember to do some of them, when you create a driving force, the momentum takes care of itself.  The first step in doing that is knowing WHY you want something.

    I really do want to be healthy and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully.  The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends.  In order to do those things, I must find better ways for me to live a healthy lifestyle.

    The WHYs are just as important for business goals too.

    Focus on Potential Solutions, Rather than Problems or Challenges.

    Obstacles Exist. The bad news: I don't eat fish and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables).  My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports. I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and who'd have thunk it, but being a CEO of a fast-growing startup is stressful.  The good news: is none of those things matter; and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.

    It is natural to focus on obstacles. But most obstacles are surmountable – with a big enough WHY, even I'll start to eat vegetables. Instead of dwelling on the limitations,  use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions instead. They are beacons, pointing the way.

    How do you do it?  To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do … and another is of things Not To-Do.

    Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:

    • I will drink more water than coffee.
    • I will stretch, or do basic calisthenics, on days that I do not go to the gym.
    • I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a meal supplement.
    • I will focus on relaxation and meditation, as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.

    Here is the actionable list of Not To-Do Items.

    • I will not buy new pants or wear stretchy pants.
    • I will not eat snacks out their container, and will portion-out what I want first.
    • I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do. Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.

    Create Healthier Habits.

    It is easy to follow your routine.  So, make your routine better.  Here are some examples of things you could do to make being healthier happen with less effort.

    • Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
    • Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts or organic energy bars (instead of chips).
    • Make exercise time, the time you enjoy listening to music or listen to a book/podcast. Dedicating time to something, doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
    • Park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
    • Meet with friends at the gym or at a hiking spot, rather than a bar or restaurant.

    You get the idea.  Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits.  What habits could you alter slightly, to make a big difference?  Which things can you automate or outsource?

    Focus on Your Progress.

    In this case, it really is about the journey.  Instead of keeping track of how far you have to go … notice how far you've come. Utilize an internal locus of control. It is about creating energy, momentum and a sense of possibility.  You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind.  That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.

    • Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
    • Pick a gym, or a personal trainer.
    • Run more than two laps without stopping.

    It doesn't matter what they are are … they all count, as long as you know that you are moving in the right direction.

    Summary

    The point of this exercise as was not really to focus on fitness. These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation. The principles are:

    1. First, figure out what you want, and why it is important to you. 
    2. Second, find something you can do, right now, which moves you in the right direction.
    3. Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy. Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
    4. Fourth,  plan forwards, but measure backwards. Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.

    In business, this translates to Capitalogix having a mission and vision – it's what we want, and why it's important to us. I then create a yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision. My team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) so they know where to spend there time, and what milestones tell them they're on the right track.

    Hope this helped.  

  • Beware The Siren Song

    Imagine that aliens have landed on earth, and of everyone on the planet – they end up in front of you. It's now your responsibility to explain the rules of life to these hypothetical aliens.

    Like you, they are facing a new year and an opportunity for a new journey. 

    Would you tell them to let the media, politicians, and the economists determine what kind of a year they would have?

    Or would you explain that they have a lot of freedoms, one of the most important being the freedom of thought; that they can think and make whatever plans they choose.

    Admittedly, this is rather ridiculous question, as we both know you are not going to be instructing any aliens (or are you?!). But, it is a thought experiment to get you focused on the positive polarity.

    We are facing a new year and we do have freedom of thought. You and I can plan to enjoy tremendous results this year. However, with all the negative energy swirling around the us, it's important to be deliberate. Without such plans it's easy to be swept into the "I can't because …" rut, and it's way easier to maintain a habit than to dig yourself out of a bad one.

    Positive framing won't substitute for hard work and intelligence – but it will act as a force function. 

    Beware of Stories!

    On a related note, here's an interesting TedTalk.

    Economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives — and our messy, irrational world — in terms of simple narrative.

     

    Tyler Cowen via TEDx

    The moral: pay attention to what's really happening and respond intelligently. 

    It's not what humans are best at – it's why I love robots – but, it's an important task nonetheless. 

    We're headed into a new decade … honestly ask yourself how the last year, and the last 10 were, and then ask yourself what you need to do to make the next ten better than the last ten. 

     

  • The Market Doesn’t Care About Trump’s Impeachment

    On Wednesday, Trump became the  third U.S. president in history to be impeached. The Democratic-led House of Representatives passed charges against him for "abuse of power" and "obstruction of Congress." 

    Wednesday was also the day that I learned many of my friends don't understand the impeachment process. Trump has not been removed from office, and with the vote to remove him coming from the Senate (assuming that the parties will vote along lines) it seems unlikely he will be removed. 

    While impeachment still matters – it's essentially a demerit. He's been called to the principal's office – but he hasn't been expelled, and he's still allowed to finish the year and apply for next year. He'll likely finish his first term, and has a chance for a second term. 

    So why go through with the process?

    Democrats hope to convince "moderate" Republicans to vote against party lines, and Republicans believe this is a farce/smear campaign that will only solidify support for Trump and embolden their base.

    Currently, it feels like Nancy Pelosi is going through the motions just to say she went through them. 

    It's a seemingly futile exercise in partisan politics … but it will take until the results of the upcoming Presidential election to truly decide. 

    Regardless, the market currently doesn't care … at all. 

    The Bulls Live On 

    Before impeachment, Trump warned that the stock market would plummet if he was impeached. 

    By the end of Wednesday's regular session, equities had weakened slightly, but all major indexes were trading near all-time highs.

    It makes sense. Republicans and Democrats voted along party lines, and they'll do the same in the Senate. So, there's little reason for the market to worry. 

    M6wsypotwj541via cub3dworld

    Even if some Republicans voted against party lines, the vote needs a 2/3 majority to pass. 

    Markets respond to fear and excitement – and while there's political grandstanding on both sides, nothing really has happened. Even if Trump were removed, Pence would remain a supporter of Trump's policies. 

    In the long-term, this raises questions about who will govern us in the future, what policies will be passed, etc… All things that will influence the market. 

    Time will tell what the results will be, but it feels like we're safe from major political news until Super Tuesday in March. 

  • Happy Hanukkah! (and Happy Holidays!)

    It's that time of year again.  Wow, how time flies. End of the year and the first night of Chanukah - the Jewish festival of lights. 

    We light the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eat latkas (potato pancakes), exchange gifts, spin the Dreidel (a gambling toy), and enjoy a sense of family togetherness for 8 days and nights.

    That's a long time right?! Sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

    As a gift to all of you, here is "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

    Here is the video. And, if you're feeling left out – here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

     

    via SNL

    It's not too different from Christmas. 

    The cynic in me believes the gift part of the holiday was invented by merchants.

    Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been in a festive mood and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.

    Capitalogix Christmas 2019 2
     From my family to yours, Happy Holidays!

  • Playing Small To Play Big

    In my office, there's a series of artwork I had commissioned from GapingVoid. One important piece states that "wisdom comes from finer distinctions". 

     

    Wisdom Comes From Making Finer Distinctions_GapingVoid

     

    The more nuance you can capture, from less, the better – think Sherlock Holmes's perceptiveness compared to a normal police officer or detective. He noticed things others didn't and came to conclusions that others couldn't.

    The best detective isn't necessarily the one who looked at the most stuff.  It might be the one that was clever enough to ignore the wrong stuff (which led to being able to discern the right answer in less time). 

    The same concept applies to AI and data. More isn't always better.

    The evolution of mastery requires gaining more from a dataset. 

     

    Vishal Chatrath via Codex

    Don't get me wrong – data is a precious commodity, and more (and different) data is often better – but it means much less when you're not using it right. 

     

    More Data = Less Visibility

    We're living in the best era (so far) but people are increasingly frustrated and unhappy. They're less happy in their relationships, they're less happy in their jobs, and they're more depressed than recent generations.

    Comparison is the Thief of Joy 

    It's too easy to say it's because they're "snowflakes", but it makes sense. They're surrounded by people yet have less meaningful connections due to so much of it being "online".  They see everyone's highlight reels and feel like they can't live up. They're inundated with media from all directions and they have infinite options in our hyperconnected society. 

    Data is exhausting. Choice is exhausting. It's the reason willpower doesn't work, and it creates anxiety and lack of movement. 

    It's the same with data – the more data an AI has to sift through the harder is to separate the signal from the noise. It's why daily optimization is harder than monthly optimization. 

    That doesn't mean that there's not value in more data (or in daily optimization) – but it means you need to be calculated about it. 

    It needs to be built on solving the right problem.

     

    We Don't Have More Problems Than Ever, We Have More Complex Problems

    As a society, we've solved so many of the low hanging fruit that we're having to solve more complicated problems. From a theory of constraints viewpoint, we've fixed a lot of life's bottlenecks and we're now dealing with the real underlying issues. 

    Solving for the "local optima" is fixing a symptom – we have to look for the global optima and solve for the disease. 

    Today, I'd rather have a 10-layer algorithm than an algorithm that looks at 10 datasets … creating finer distinctions. 

     

    Sparse Data + Agile Decision Engine = Better Outcomes 

    You'll get a better outcome by focusing on answering the right question with the right datasets than by throwing a mountain of data at a random neural net. 

    Scale matters, but is secondary. It's built on the back of finer distinctions. 

    The more noise you can remove before feeding information to an algorithm the better.

    It seems simple – but that's the game, and it's the one most aren't playing.