Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Generations of Fathers

    Happy Father's Day!

    Both of my children are adults now. It's strange to consider them fully-functioning autonomous adults – because I remember their childhood like it was yesterday (like worrying whether the soft spot on their heads would ever fill in and harden up, or if they'd ever stop sleeping with a nightlight). 

    Today, they're men doing great things,  and I get to be proud of them.  I also get to be proud of my role in their growth and proud of passing down the wisdom of my dad, and his father, and the rest who came before me. 

    It has been 20 years since my father died … Crazy how time flies! He was my best friend and an amazing mentor. His vision for what I could become helped shape and inform my goals, my accomplishments, and yes, me.

    For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, my dad came down from the stands onto the field.  He hugged me and told me that he knew I could do it. Then, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was a little disappointed?  "Disappointed?" I asked. "But, Dad, I won."  He looked at me and said, "Winning is great … but you didn't throw a personal best."   He was proud, and he loved me.   He recognized that winning was important … but he wanted to remind me that the other throwers weren't my real competition.  

    In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

    My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He taught me that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted and complacent.

    One of his favorite sayings was, "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things. For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them. 

    As time goes on, I recognize how much of my Dad is in me. And, likewise, how much his father was a part of him … and how parts of all of us have somehow become a part of my children. 

     

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    Me, my dad, and grandfather

    My Impact on My Children

    I hope I've imparted many important lessons to my children – but one of the most impactful lessons was teaching them to enjoy reading. 

    Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games. I tried something different.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books. And, they also received more books in the process. 

    Here's how it worked. 

    When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished ten books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store or game store for them to choose any game they wanted.

    When they finished a hundred books, they earned a game system. 

    There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortably reading a particular genre (teen fiction) and didn't want to read the kind of books that I thought he was ready to read (and might enjoy more).  So, I created a bonus system that counted a specific book (it might have been a Tom Clancy novel) as three books.  I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

    As they started to get into their teenage years, I needed to up the ante a little. So, 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice. Both boys cashed in and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad.

    So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

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    Three generations of Getsons

    Fortunately, in child-rearing, everyone can win. My sons love reading to this day – and have learned that they can accomplish anything they set their minds to… one step at a time. 

    My sons weren't ever forced to stop watching TV, or read a certain type of book, and always had endless things to keep them entertained. 

    Win-win. 

    I like to think each generation becomes better (as people and parents) due to the cumulative experience of the generations that came before them. 

    We stand on the shoulders of giants. 

    I look forward to seeing how my (eventual) grandchildren turn out, and how little pieces of me and their great-grandfather show up. 

    Hope you had a great weekend.

  • Carol’s Keeping Me In Shape

    As I get older, I become more conscious of my mental and physical health. It's easy as an entrepreneur or business person to lose track of your health – but investing in your personal health can be the best thing you do for your business.

    Many of my friends now believe that with technology and a sustained focus on health & longevity, they can live past 100. They're paying attention to genetic, physiologic & biochemical makeup, cognitive function, body composition, cardiovascular performance, hormonal status, and much more. Whether they're going to live past 100 or not, I can see the daily results in the quality of their life and the way they look. 

    It's the reason I started working with APEX, Dr. Jeffrey Gladden's concierge medical wellness practice.

    They've got me eating salads, taking supplements, and thinking about what it takes to be healthy, fit, and vital. 

    The goal is to enjoy life though … Not to deprive yourself as this image portrays …

    Getting healthy

     

    Exercise is also an important part of the "healthy, fit, and vital" equation.

    With gyms being closed during the recent Quarantine, I found another tool that I fell in love with.

    Her name is Carol; an AI fitness bike that personalizes a HIIT workout for you,  based on your fitness and your preferred workout length. It makes it way easier for me to fit workouts into my schedule (and way harder to justify skipping a session). 

    Carol 

    The promise is an "hour's worth" of exercise compressed into an 8-minute workout that really only has two 20-second periods of intense effort.

    The science is sound. My experience is that it works for me.  I've done it for about two months now.  The results are undeniable (in terms of muscle tone, endurance, 20% improvement on many of the metrics tracked by the bike, etc.).

    The more you use it the smarter it gets. It automatically adjusts to give you exactly the resistance you need to keep you motivated and to continue making progress.

    I've been impressed. Working-out at home has always been a struggle for me. I've bought other tools for lifting or cardio, but they tend to end up as coat racks or space fillers. 

    Exercise has a "social" component for some people ( comes to mind). Some people need the "social" component of exercise to get through hard workouts (think Peloton or OrangeTheory.) The Carol bike doesn't fully satisfy that part of exercise … but they do a great job of keeping the session short, fun, and gamified (so that you know where you are, how you are progressing, and where you stand in the rankings).  The combination of the efficiency of the workouts – and being able to see that you are getting fitter, objectively, has been just what I needed. 

    Besides Carol's website, here is a link to check out their YouTube channel. 

    Onwards. 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 21st, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Sometimes, Less Is More

    The idea of “less is more” was popularized in 1947 as an argument for minimalism. But today, more than ever, minimalism is important in all aspects of life. You can see it in the resurgence of simplistic design, or Marie Kondo, or in the re-popularization of stoicism. 

    There’s too much competition for our attention. We can’t buy everything we see on TV, deep-dive into every interesting topic we learn about on the internet, or track everything that’s happening in the world.

    Instead, we tend to focus on what is relevant or interesting to us.

    In business, there are Specialists and Generalists.  It isn’t hard to imagine that their reading lists, habits, and sources of happiness or fulfillment are probably quite different.

    The same is true for  Simplifiers and Multipliers (which is a concept that Dan Sullivan at Strategic Coach has written a book about).

    In your business career, to get to where you are, you’ve been successful at two things. You’ve simplified things, which gave you an advantage. And you multiplied things, which gave you an advantage.  Said a different way, as a simplifier, you took something that was complex for everybody else, and you made it simple. And as a multiplier, you took something that was a new solution, and you had successes multiplying it out in the world so that a lot of people could get the advantage of your simplifications.

    But the truth is most people are either primarily simplifiers or multipliers.  The best partnerships happen when you pair the two.  Amazing conversations happen when a simplifier says to a multiplier, “I’ve got this really neat solution … What would you do with it?” Each has something the other doesn’t; and the combination is often exponential.

    I am primarily a simplifier.  So, I tend to look for people or technologies to multiply what I produce.

    I shot a video on the topic. Click here to watch.

     

    The internet and global digital economy enable you to find an audience for almost anything. 

    No matter how far you niche down to find your true calling, there are likely people who are just as excited about what you do as you. 

    So, sometimes less is more.

    Are you a simplifier or a multiplier?

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 14th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Lessons From 2020’s Markets

    The idea that the market is not the economy has been made very clear over these past months. While businesses continue to shutter or (if they're lucky) slowly re-open, the stock market has rallied immensely since the initial crash – in large part due to governmental efforts. The markets are so confusing right now that CNBC has given up and created a new type of market – the kangaroo market … I assume implying "jumpy" volatility. 

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    The rally has only served to increase the uncertainty as people hold their breath waiting for the drop… For all that waiting, "dumb money" has been beating a lot of "intelligent" investors.

    I found an interesting visualization that shows the performance of the S&P through the performance of its underlying stocks. 

     

    via Chartfleau

    As you watch the video you can see that most of these underlying stocks are struggling – but they're being propped up by a relatively small number of stocks, including the likes of tech giants, the gold mining company Newmont Corporation and the HVAC company Carrier Global. 

    While many funds still struggle, novice investors and day traders listening to the advice of "buy low, sell high" have made staggering gains. 

    I'm not encouraging a back-to-basics approach to trading, but I think it is a good reminder that sometimes, as Da Vinci said, "simplicity is the ultimate sophistication." 

    Being in Fintech, I'm always paying attention to the newest "sophisticated" technologies, looking for a new edge – and that's valuable – but you can't throw out the baby with the bathwater. 

    So, I find myself looking for what's timeless (instead of timely) in what others are doing. 

    At a Genius Network meeting recently, Brian Tracy mentioned two key questions he asks himself (before writing a book) that I think are very insightful. 

    Would this work 20 years from now? Would this have worked 20 years ago?

    Tools and techniques change… why often doesn't matter.

    The truth is, if you don't know what your edge is … then you don't have one.  

    On a related note, if nothing is working … doing nothing is an option!

    Hope that helped. 

  • Talking AI, Analytics, and Trading With IBM

    I'll be speaking at an IBM Webinar on June 18th. The focus is on using AI, analytics, and advanced computing to improve trading research. Click here to sign-up. 

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  • Solid Advice from MMA fighter Chael Sonnen

    Chael Sonnen is a famous retired mixed martial artist. He was also a coach on the show The Ultimate Fighter. 

    The advice in the video is fantastic – whether you're fighting in the ring or your own personal battles. 

     

    via UFC

    Silencing the voice in your head that says "you can't" is impossible, but ignoring the voice, and learning to compete with it is entirely possible. 

    Failure is an option, but it's the only option available if you don't try. Motion begets motion. And, with persistence, failure can be a stone on the path to eventual success. 

    Onwards! 

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – June 7th, 2020

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Are You A Maverick Or A Heretic?

    I have a tents problem. I keep buying tents, but I never go camping. Just kidding – I don’t own a tent. I have a tense problem – because I’m so excited about the future and what’s possible that I sometimes lose track of what’s been actualized "in real life" already.

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    Once I’ve thought it, it becomes real for me. Once I’ve figured it out and told it to someone … on some level, it's already done. And, I’m probably moving on to the next idea or challenge in my head (like: And what would that make possible?).

    I think this is common among (to use a Kolbe term) Quick Starts. I love being around entrepreneurs because a lot of them are Quick Starts, and they share this future-focused perspective. The problem, however, is that when you say something’s possible that hasn’t been proven yet, the average person responds with “no it’s not.”

    I’ve seen the pattern over and over, both in my own company and in my friend’s companies. At my company, we have a lot of data scientists – and they’re almost all naturally pessimistic. Which makes sense; if you were going to hire a personality type to be a scientist, you’d want someone who didn’t believe their hypothesis until they’ve proven it. It’s the right personality for the job, but it doesn’t mean they’re right, and it certainly doesn’t mean that approach is right for the visionaries.

    I’m not telling everyone to be visionaries. What I am saying is, if you’re naturally a visionary, feel free to embrace it, but surround yourself with people who keep you grounded in reality. We’d never have innovation if it wasn’t for you, and innovators wouldn’t ever get anything done if it wasn’t for other personality types.

    Information Is Beautiful put together an interactive list of famous ideas rejected that were later proven correct. You can filter by industry – Astronomy, Biology, Engineering, Mathematics, Medicine, Physical Sciences – and by other factors like how long the originator was a pariah, how they were treated due to their idea, and when the idea was formally adopted. Click to see the interactive version. 

    Screen Shot 2020-04-12 at 10.25.14 AMvia Information Is Beautiful

    In 895, Al-Razi believing a fever was a natural defense mechanism got him beaten.

    In 1592, Giordano Bruno believing the Sun was one of many stars got him killed. Shortly after, Galileo Galilei was imprisoned for believing the earth wasn’t the center of the solar system.

    Losing some of the stakes, in 1884 and 1903 respectively, Nikola Tesla and the Wright Brothers were ignored and rejected for their technological innovations.

    Even today you can see the initial response to visionaries like Peter Diamandis or Elon Musk.

    The status quo is comfortable, but if you’re standing still you’re moving backward.

    Are you a maverick or a heretic? You won’t know until you see it to the end. You may experience failures, but that’s the experience for your next endeavor.

    "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." – Thomas Edison

    Onwards!