Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • What The Perseverance Rover Reminded Me About

    Last week, the Perseverance rover landed on Mars. It's not the first time we've landed a rover on Mars, but it's still incredible to see. 

    via NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory 

    It's a feat of engineering and human will. It's also a good reminder. 

    History is littered with tales of once-rare resources made plentiful by innovation. The reason is pretty straightforward … scarcity is often contextual.

    Imagine a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If you pluck all the oranges from the lower branches, you are effectively out of accessible fruit. From that limited perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of technology called a ladder, the problem is solved.

    When we first went to the moon, calculators referred to people charged with doing the complex math needed for the Rocket to make it into Space (rather than the device that could do the math instantly with no errors) and the computing power it took to get to the moon took up many rooms at NASA. 

    In comparison, you now have dramatically more computing power in your pocket than NASA used to get to the moon. 

    Likewise, we now have people living in space, posting videos from the ISS, and the ability to stream high-resolution images (and even movies) of space and galaxies near and far. 

    What was once scarce and unobtainable has become abundant and accessible.   It is a story repeated countless times.

    Still, as humans, we're wired to think locally and linearly. We evolved to live our lives in small groups, to fear outsiders, and to stay in a general region until we die. We're not wired to think about the billions and billions of individuals on our planet, or the rate of technological growth – or the minuteness of all that in contrast to the expanse of space. 

    Nonetheless, we have created better and faster ways to travel, we've created instantaneous communication networks across vast distances, and we've created megacities. Our tribes have gotten much bigger – and with that, our ability to envision and enact massive change has grown as well. 

    Our quest to conquer Space became the poster child for a type of innovation we now call "moon shots".  While 'moon shot' originally meant "long shot," it's increasingly being used to describe a monumental effort towards a lofty goal — in other words, a "giant leap."

    Today, with technology as a catalyst, we see those leaps happen in many areas (like A.I., medicine, longevity, space exploration, etc.). 

    It's hard to comprehend the scale of the universe or the scale of our potential … but that's what makes it worth exploring.

    Pretty cool!

    Onwards!!

     
     

  • Who Can You Trust?

    Information is Power.

    Consequently, your choice of information source heavily contributes to your perceptions, ideas, and worldview.

    Coincidently, news sources are a lightning rod for vitriol and polemic.

    I am still a little surprised by the abject hatred I hear expressed towards a particular news source by those who hold an opposing bias.  This often leads to claims of fake news, delusion, and partisan press. Likewise, it is common to hear derision toward anyone who consumes that news source.

    Perhaps the reality is that that most sources are flawed – and the goal should simply be to find information that sucks less?

    It's to the point where if you watch the news, you're misinformed; and if you don't watch the news, you're uninformed. News sources aren't just reporting the news, they're creating opinions and arguments that become the news.  And many don't care enough to think for themselves – or to extract the facts from the opinion.

    Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank on various scales. You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details.

     Adfontes

    via Ad Fontes Media

    I once spent fifteen minutes in an argument about how you know whether the information in this chart is true.  If you're curious about their methods, click here. 

    Distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach is the "new normal." 

    Perhaps even more dangerous is the amount of fake news and haphazard research shared on social media. Willful misrepresentations of complex issues are now a too common communication tactic now on both sides … and the fair and unbiased consideration of issues suffers.  

    Social media spreads like wildfire, and by the time it has been debunked (or proven to be an oversimplification) the damage is done. People are convinced … and some will never go beyond that. 

    The reality isn't as bleak.  People agree on a lot more than they say they do.  It is often easier to focus on "us" versus "them" rather than what we agree upon jointly.  This is true on a global scale.  We agree on a lot.  Most Democrats aren't socialists, and most Republicans aren't fascists … and the fact that our conversation has drifted there is intellectually lazy.

    This idea that either side is trying to destroy the country is clearly untrue (OK, mostly untrue). There are loonies on the fringes of any group, but the average Democrat is not that unlike the average Republican. You don't have to agree with their opinions, but you should be able to trust that they want our country to succeed. 

    I don't know that we have a solution. But there is one common "fake news" fallacy I want to explain at least a little. 

    It's called the Motte and Bailey fallacy. It's named after a style of medieval castle prioritizing military defense.

    Launceston_Castle_-_geograph.org.uk_-_22242

    Launceston Castle via Chris Shaw, CC BY-SA 2.0

    On the left is a Motte, an artificial mound often topped with a stone structure, and on the right is a Bailey, the enclosed courtyard. The Motte serves to protect not only itself but also the Bailey. 

    As a form of argument, an arguer conflates two positions that share similarities. One of the positions is easy to defend (the motte) and the other is controversial (the bailey).  The arguer advances the controversial position, but when challenged insists they're only advancing the moderate position. Upon retreating the arguer can claim that the bailey hasn't been refuted, or that the critic is unreasonable by equating an attack on the bailey with an attack on the motte. 

    It's a common method used by newscasters, politicians, and social media posters alike. And it's easy to get caught in it if you don't do your research. 

    Conclusion

    As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

    We believe what we want to believe … so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

    But, hopefully, in learning about these fallacies, and being aware, we do better. 

    I will caution that blind distrust is dangerous – because it feels like critical thought without forcing you to critically think.

    Distrust is good … but too much of a good thing is a bad thing. 

    Not everything is a conspiracy theory or a false flag.

    Do research, give more credence to experts in a field – but don't blindly trust them either.  How well do you think you're really thinking for yourself?

    It's a complicated world, and it's only getting more complicated.  But, hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble and learn more about those you disagree with. 

     

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 21st, 2021

    Click here to see some cool photos and videos from the Perseverance rover. 

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

     

  • When Texas Freezes Over

    As I write this, Texas has already cleared up and is warm again … but the effects of a week spent below freezing (with temperatures reaching below zero) will be felt for a long time. 

     

    210221 Texas Freeze_1via Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    Even though it had not snowed here in for several days, the Rolling Blackouts continued through the end of the week.  It is hard to believe Texas does not know how to handle six inches of snow.  Having grown up near Boston, I recognize that with no plows, no sanding, and no salt … you stand little chance of keeping the roads clear. At some level, it is just idiots slipping, sliding, and waiting for the sun to come out.  But who would have thought that would describe top leaders of the State and its ability to provide basic human needs like power, water, and heating (let alone WiFi and battery power)?

     

    210221 WiFi and Battery Power on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

    The ice storm and cold snap weren’t so bad for me (compared to some of the stories I’m hearing from other people in our office). Yes, we lost power, water, and the Internet … but only for a few isolated hours.  I was lucky (and so was our data center), but millions (including several Capitalogix employees) suffered due to lack of water, electricity, or heat, and to add insult to injury – burst pipes. 

    Despite the fact that the temperature is back in the high 50s, here is a photo I took at our local supermarket this weekend.  Let's say things aren't quite back to normal yet.

     

    210221 Empty Store Shelves

    I've seen a lot of political mudslinging from both sides trying to avoid blame.  The reality is that this mess is a disaster that doesn't need to be politicized (and should be used as the raw material to make sure that something like this doesn't happen again). While Texas rarely sees weather like this, this wasn't the first time we have, and it won't be the last. 

    Two major factors came into play.

    First, Texas chose to stay off the national grid to avoid federal regulation. The Texas grid is called ERCOT, and it is run by an agency of the same name — the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. We joke about Texas seceding from the Union, but the reality is that many Texans are fiercely independent and crave less federal regulation (which is a discussion for another day) so the choice resonated with constituents.  Especially since Texas is a very energy-rich state.  Unfortunately, not being on the national grid means that when our grid is overtaxed, we're mostly on our own. In the winter of 2011, when our power sources couldn't keep up with needs we imported energy from Mexico to keep up, but this year much of Northern Mexico was struggling as well. 

    Second, Texas chose not to winterize its power sources. After 2011, a proposal was floated to winterize energy plants by adding insulation, heating pipes, etc. but it was very costly and wasn't adopted.   Many Texans (including politicians) were quick to blame it on the underperformance of renewables, but in this case, according to ERCOT,  natural gas, coal, and nuclear were affected. 

    All of these energy sources can be winterized, and renewables work fine even in Antarctica. This isn't an argument for renewables or for joining the national grid. Just an acknowledgment of the current situation. 

    ERCOT claimed that they were ready for the storm, and warned their plants to "winterize" how they could, but clearly, it wasn't enough. With more preparation locally and on the state level, Texans should be fine to handle these types of episodes in the future. With that said, it shouldn't take episodes like this to enact change. 

    Regardless, crises like this are opportunities to come together, and I've been very happy to see how many people have offered food, water, and their homes to people in need.

    Thank you to all who reached out to check in on us. 

     

  • The Return of The SPACs

    I've shared several links about SPACs, in the past few months, as they have gotten increasingly popular and relevant.

    SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company. A SPAC is a company with no commercial operations, formed to raise capital through an IPO to acquire existing companies, technologies.

    A typical IPO creates new public shares of a formerly private company while a SPAC merges a private shell company with an already existing public company. 

    It's basically a backdoor way to turn a private company public overnight. Click here to see popular SPACs from 2020. 

    They've been around for decades – but SPACs have been increasingly popular recently. Making that point, according to Bloomberg, SPAC dollars raised in 2020 beat the total from the previous 10 years combined.

    10_6_2020_COID_chart_subvia RSM

    SPACs are becoming popular to businesses because they're seen as a safer way to go public in a volatile environment. They're also becoming popular to investors because the stock value often jumps pre-acquisition.  Nevertheless, the reality is that the average SPAC underperforms the S&P 500 on any given timeframe.

    Screen Shot 2021-02-14 at 4.27.36 PMvia Bloomberg

    The reality is that most "buzz" products underperform the S&P – and most things that become too popular ultimately end up losing their edge. 

    Barry Ritholtz put it well in his opinion piece:

    The successful products we encounter every day are the result of initial failure. While positive outcomes are all around us, hidden from view is the iterative process of repeated failed attempts that lead to improvement. The world is filled with fantastic products from wildly successful companies, making it easy to overlook the many small gains and occasional big breakthroughs that helped them achieve this success.

    For businesses looking for access to capital, SPACs are a legitimate option worth considering.  However, for investors looking for the next new alternative asset class to invest in, SPACs may not be what you are looking for in the longer term. 

    What do you think?

     
     

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 14th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • Gong Xi Fa Cai & Happy Valentine’s Day

    Friday was the Lunar New Year. Normally, Jen and I would travel to Indonesia to spend it with her family, but it didn't happen this year. 

    Regardless, Gong Xi Fa Cai … which translates to "Best wishes for a prosperous New Year!"

    It's interesting to think about how many New Year celebrations there are.  In addition to Chinese New Year, Muslims have Hari Raya Idul Fitri; Jews have Rosh Hashanah; Persians have Nowruz; and of course, there is January 1st (and there are many others).

    Regardless of your chosen New Year, it provides an opportunity to celebrate, share, reflect, plan, and commit to the right actions.

    And how fitting for it to be Valentine's as well, so I can celebrate, share, etc. about Jen as well. 

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    I met Jennifer in April of 2004, and we got married in January of 2008. So, last month we celebrated our 13th anniversary. 

    On one hand, I can remember the day I met her like it was yesterday.  On the other hand, time feels like it's moving faster every day.

    Throughout these years, and especially in 2020, I remain thankful for her care, insight, presence, and patience. 

    As an entrepreneur, I have a "tense" problem.  For me, the future and present are often blended.  The present is my tool to create the future I imagine and desire.  Meaning, I imagine the future I want – and then I find the path to create (or manifest) that destiny. 

    Not surprisingly, some of the things that were easy to imagine were hard to bring into reality (in a reproducible, efficient, and effective manner or process) … And these things seem to take forever.  Yet, as long as you continue to make progress, the result is inevitable.

    I am consciously trying to be more mindful and grateful for the progress (and even the minor moments, wins, or curiosities) before me.  The truth is that if you fail to notice them, you don't experience them (even though they happened).

    Here is to experiencing all that you need or want.  And, as for the rest, I hope it serves as the raw material, learning, or fuel to get you there faster.

    Onwards!

  • Why Is Tom Brady So Good?

    In 2017, I wrote an article "asking" why the Patriots were so good. 

    It's now 2021 … Tom Brady and the Patriots have parted ways. The Patriots had a middling season – while Tom Brady, who is now the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, made it to his 10th Super Bowl appearance. 

    There is a difference between 'luck' and 'skill'.

    Both exist … yet, luck favors the prepared.

    In life, as in sports, hard work often beats talent (especially if talent fails to work hard).

    Don't get me wrong – all the commentary about the Patriots in 2017 is true. Bill Belichick is an amazing coach with a storied career (even without Brady). 

    But, when you see this picture from the 2000 NFL Combine, it's hard to believe that Tom Brady would be a 6-time Superbowl MVP taking the Buccaneers to the Super Bowl in his first year with them. All at the geriatric (for an NFL player) age of 43. 

    6a00e5502e47b2883301b7c8d1ec61970b-600wi

    via CBS Sports

    When I talked about the Patriots, I focused on the fact that they were a well-oiled machine with a powerful framework of success that allowed individual greatness to shine. 

    I think Brady's continued success is emblematic of that. 

    Tom Brady is a paragon of culture, process, and hard work. Much of his approach was molded by his time with Belichick, but of course, he gets enormous personal credit as well. 

    He expects the best of himself and brings out the best in his teammates. That's enabled him to stay a top-level competitor despite not being the strongest, fastest, or most mobile QB (and that was when he was young). 

    The System is the 'system'; but, within it, you can measure what works, who contributes, and use it to identify the best things to try next.

    Win, lose, or draw … some things speak for themselves.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – February 7th, 2021

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    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

     

    Trading Links:

  • 7 Levels of Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star

    Sometimes insight and inspiration come from strange places. 

    I stumbled upon a video of a Japanese man playing the lullaby "Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star" on the piano at 7 different levels of intensity. It has almost 5 million views. Check it out. 

     

    hat-tip to David Kotok for the video via Cateen かてぃん

    On top of being an impressive feat of skill, I couldn't help but relate it back to our tendency towards pattern recognition and heuristics. 
     
    Even at level 7, it's not hard to hear the iconic lullaby. Whether you hear the simple version or a complicated version, somehow you know that the base is the same.  The human brain is great at recognizing patterns (sometimes too great, finding patterns that aren't there).
     
    As an aside, I have three distinct sets of clothes in my closet.  I think of them as fat boy clothes, skinny boy clothes, and clothes.  If I look at Facebook, it's easy for me to see (simply by looking at my face) when I'm picking clothes from each of those sections in my closet. But how does a facial recognition software know that I'm still me (at weights ranging from 200 to 250 pounds)? Or that I'm still me in a profile picture taken eight years ago.  Somehow you have to recognize the match despite the mismatch.
     
    Similarly, how does pattern recognition software recognize a pattern that might happen over a period of minutes versus that same pattern when it occurs over a period of seconds or days?
    A simple video – but a great reminder. Hope you enjoyed it.