Each year I look forward to Camp Kotok, or as I like to call it Economists in Nature. It's basically 5 days of canoeing, fishing, and dining with economists, wealth managers, traders, investors and more.
One of few chances for people from these backgrounds to come together and talk about the world, big trends, investing, economics, politics, and more … in an open and safe forum. The event goes by the Chatham House Rule – which basically means you can share the information you receive, but not who said it.
This year we talked about everything from China, digital currencies, the pandemic, and the state of markets.
Interestingly, for all the takeaways I could focus on, the main takeaway was uncertainty.
For all the intelligent and "in-the-know" people in the room, very few people had clear opinions of what was going to happen. There were too many variables at play, and while they posited a lot of potential paths, it feels like the general census was we're at a crossroads with many potential futures in front of us.
Despite the general uncertainty in the room, it wasn't fear-laden. The general mood was optimistic, and for the most part, everyone sees paths toward economic success post-COVID.
With that said, when and what "post-COVID" means is another issue.
One of the other key discussions that came up often was the new generation of workers and their changing relationship with work. It's plain to see the rate of quitting is higher, that wages are rising, and it's getting hard to fill minimum wage jobs. It's hard to get employees back in an office space, and many are willing to take pay cuts or switch to other companies to stay at home.
The long-term impact on our economy (and our culture) is yet to be seen.
As the world gets faster, automation is even more important. How else can you keep up with all the data you need, the tests you need to run, etc..
But, like with all things, moderation is key. Knowing what to automate and when is vital to your success. Especially in data science, sometimes less is more.
I shot a short video with some of my main ideas on the subject. Check it out.
Automation is one of the last steps you should attempt in any business process. It comes once you're confident in an ability and are able to move to bigger problems. And, the secret to knowing when to utilize automation is data; specifically, the metadata created by your processes. That metadata can help you assess whether you can automate it, and if so, for how long can it be automated before you must re-evaluate and update.
Often, as you're getting started, less is really more, because while artificial intelligence is cool, artificial stupidity (or automated inefficiencies) is scary.
At a mastermind meeting last week, Landon Downs from 1Qbit spoke on the state of technology. Landon and I agree on a lot of things – and one of those things he emphasized heavily. AI is in a period of massive innovation. It's a renaissance, or springtime, or whatever euphemism you want to use. But it's only springtime for AI if you can take advantage of it.
Adding to that, he explained that a current constraint might become a big short-term limitation to how widespread AI can grow. The constraint is that there is a global chip shortage (and it could be an issue until 2023).
The chip shortage is probably a bigger problem than you imagine because microchips are in everything from refrigerators to toothbrushes – not just high-tech computers. This has the potential to be a massive disruptor, especially in the tech industry.
Building and running smart AI systems takes a lot of computing power, and as more competitors enter the scene, not only will the cost to play increase, but so will the potential you get turned away at the door.
To a certain extent, the AI arms race becomes a chip arms race.
As I thought about the chip shortage, and its impact on the next few years, it also made me brainstorm what else I thought would be the most influential shifts that would influence me and my business (and potentially the world).
Here's my top 5, and I'd love to hear yours.
Compute Power is going to increase, and the ability to brute force problems will create new possibilities. Quantum computing will become more important and likely available for commercial use.
New and better AI platforms will transition AI from a tool for specialists to a commodity for everyday people – it won't just be Artificial Intelligence, it will be Amplified Intelligence (helping people make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually measure and improve performance).
Blockchain and authenticated provenance are going to become more important as the world becomes increasingly digital. Trust and transparency will be important as indelible logs are needed for finance, medical, armies, etc.
IoT will become more pervasive, enabling near digital omniscience as everything becomes a sensor that transmits data up the chain.
Mass customization will become the norm instead of simple mass production as hardware, data, and AI continues to improve products, medicine, custom supplements, and just about everything else.
While self-driving cars seem like a relatively new invention, the reality is that the earliest autonomous self-driving cars existed in the early 1980s (non-autonomous versions and semi-workable experiments have existed since the 1920s).
Luckily, the standards and approach have gotten much better since then, and we continue to make massive strides. Recently, Elon Musk stated that he was confident that level 5 self-driving cars would exist by the end of this year. That would mean the need for a steering wheel or a driver's seat would be next to 0 – a luxury even.
According to many AI experts, this is exciting because level 5 autonomy is not just difficult – it's near impossible.
Think of it from a human perspective. When we're driving, many minute decisions happen instantaneously and without much trouble. But some of those decisions are "subjective" and seemingly novel. We know the answer because we intuit the answer – not because it's following any specific rule.
For a car to reach level 5 autonomy, it would have to be pre-trained for essentially every possible situation they could encounter – no matter how rare.
Elon Musk is famous for his potentially antagonizing beliefs and predilection for extreme statements … but will Tesla somehow solve these problems?
Is AI about to pass another hurdle already?
It's exciting stuff! As someone that hates long drives, I'm certainly ready for it. I can also envision a future where the norm is autonomous driving, and individuals that want the right to drive their cars themselves will have to pass extra tests, pay extra fees, and warn the autonomous cars that it's a human at the wheel.
Too often, people view Innovation through the lens of today (meaning, they evaluate where things are in relation to their hype cycle or adoption model. While helpful, these methods focus on shorter-term trends. Sometimes, a longer view helps too.
Let's look at the pace of innovation, and how the long waves of innovation are truncating faster.
The theory behind these long waves of innovation is based on creative destruction. To summarize a complex theory, as markets are disrupted, a few key clusters of industries have a major effect on the economy and the future structure of society.
An easy-to-understand example is that as railways proliferated, urban growth happened around stations. To a lesser extent, it happened with aviation as well.
The most recent example would be the transition of businesses online. I think it's likely that the COVID pandemic moved forward the timeline for the 6th wave considerably, as individuals get used to a new normal.
Despite the pain and challenges of new technologies, each of these waves brought economic growth and improved living standards.
ESG and green tech are becoming more important (and, perhaps, a driver of the 6th wave). Nonetheless, I think the major movers will be AI and the decreasing divide between digital and physical.
In many respects, I believe AI will terraform the world similarly to how electricity (or the Internet) did – but in much less time.
The mood was pretty optimistic and bullish. As you might expect, there was a growing interest in crypto and blockchain … and a growing sense of “us versus them” directed at China and Russia. We live in interesting times!
If you want to download my presentation slides, you can do that here.
via New Yorker
via 
