It's very easy to see what sector won in 2022 … Energy. While the Fed raised interest rates seven times, Russia invaded Ukraine, and the supply chain continued to struggle, Energy still saw a massive boon.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, several healthcare companies did well – specifically larger pharma companies.
On the other side of the balance, tech stocks languished in 2022. Across the board, the largest tech companies lost 20% and more. Real estate also suffered heavily with high-interest rates, uncertainty in the marketplace, and a generation of workers who are unsure if they'll ever own a home.
Do you think these trends will continue or reverse in 2023? History says "no" … but time will tell!
I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future based on the quality of the people you spend the present with.
That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical.
Over the years, I joined several business-leader peer groups like Strategic Coach, Abundance 360, and Genius Network. These groups are a great way to meet people and learn things … and they also provide you with access to the benefits of feedback from a group of trusted advisors, perspectives you might otherwise get from a counselor, and a flow of ideas and opportunities that wouldn't have crossed your mind or your desk. They allow participants to see, hear, and discuss things they don't usually think about, talk about, or even notice.
Peer groups are also great at bringing blind spots to your attention and connecting you to trends transforming industries and the world.
In these meetings, you often find a "nugget" in the discussion. Sometimes it stems from what is happening in the world. Sometimes it alerts you to potentially valuable relationships, opportunities, or gadgets. And sometimes, the nugget comes from discussing a common problem or constraint (like the pandemic) with your peers.
This week, several of these groups prompted me to think about time (e.g., not wanting to sell time for money, wanting to live past 100, the "strangeness" of time during the past year, etc.).
Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by … other times, it seems to stand still. Dan Sullivan uses the example of 10 minutes with a dying loved one compared to holding your hand on a stove for 10 minutes. One seems excruciatingly short, and the other seems excruciatingly long.
The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.
How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?
What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens" – but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person … doesn't it become more special?
For contrast:
Would you rather spend that time dwelling on a mistake?
What about being angry at something out of your control?
What about doing work that drains you mentally and emotionally?
In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life.
That is just an example, but clearly, it is worth taking the concept further.
To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self.
Hitting Flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say – "Wow!"
Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
Experiencing peace and relaxation;
Feeling pure joy.
It's easy to get lost and take these moments for granted when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left … they take a whole new meaning.
How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.
To start, think about different time frames:
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?
Make those lists … it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.
Seriously, try it.
Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose!
What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022? - How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?
While the whole board isn't correct, there's a surprising amount of prediction accuracy. On some level, predictions benefit from being generally vague. Also, many of the predictions that may not seem as accurate "today" seemed more accurate at some point this year. For example, we heard a lot about NFTs in the first half of the year, and while Big Tech is currently laying off employees, there was massive growth this year.
What are you surprised they got right? In what areas were the predictions most off-base? Why?
And, of course, what are your mega-trend predictions for 2023?
It is officially 2023 … new year – and a new set of opportunities.
But that's only based on the Gregorian calendar. Those of you that have followed me for a while know I often go to Asia for Chinese New Year (Gong Xi Fa Cai!) … but that's also only one of many New Years.
While the following chart is a day late (and thus, a year out-of-date from a Gregorian perspective), it is a handy little guide for knowing what year it is. Check it out.
Like most things, time is relative. It can seem to go fast, it can seem to go slow … sometimes it seems like it stands still. It's a matter of perspective. As we just saw, so is the calculation of what year it is. But, so too is the perspective of what you pay attention to, what you make it mean, and what you choose to do. There's no absolute "right" – only a seemingly endless stream of choices and opportunities.
I hope you had a productive and happy 2022 – and an even better 2023.
I don't know about you … but that's a ton of birds. Probably too many. Forty gold rings doesn't sound too bad (and less likely to become worthless than the NFTs they thought about substituting here).
All together pretty noisy.
Hopefully, you bought presents that your partner would actually enjoy.
Today is Christmas … and it is also the last night of Chanukah. So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah! And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either.
For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights. This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.
That's a long time, right?! Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family.
To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live. It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)
Here is the video. And, if you're feeling left out – here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.
The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.
Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer. Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.
I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.
One of my go to claims about AI is that it can do almost anything … but it can't do everything. Specific AI systems are becoming incredibly robust. Last year, I wrote an article emphasizing how big of a jump GPT-3 was from past language processors. I also shared a Seinfeld sketch created by GPT-3 that was so good it was almost unimpressive … it just felt like a Seinfeld sketch.
It feels like every week, there's a new breakthrough in pop AI. OpenAI just released ChatGPT (for free) to the public. The promise of ChatGPT is to give a cogent reply to conversational discussions. It can help you code, it can write a poem, can answer your questions, and more. The code it produces is stellar, and it can even create a convincing romantic comedy using characters from various famous shows. It does a lot very well, but it does have some failings.
GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. This was impressive enough, but ChatGPT is actually not based on GPT-3 but GPT3.5 an even more robust model that improved on the ability to answer in a way that feels natural.
ChatGPT can talk about almost any topic you can think of, and even create prose that feels human; however, it's not perfect yet.
Unfortunately, this chatbot fails in many of the same ways as its predecessors. To start, it can present false information as true because it's essentially a "stochastic parrot" basing its answers on statistical regularities in its data sources, not on an actual understanding of the world. As well, a lot of its answers can include meaningless fluff that sounds good but doesn't actually answer the question meaningfully … almost like a high schooler that forgot to read the book before writing an essay. It also can't produce ASCII art despite the advancements in AI art we've recently discussed.
Regardless of ChatGPTs faults, it's a very impressive piece of software. It can answer trivia like Google, write poetry and dialogue, it can pretend to engage in philosophic discussion, and it can help you correct your code or improve your writing.
Here's a sonnet I had it write about Artificial Intelligence:
AI, the future's shining light, A force that shapes our world anew, A source of endless possibility, A tool that cuts our burdens in two.
From language translation to deep learning, AI's capabilities are vast and grand, It helps us solve problems, find solutions, And gives us new ways to understand.
But with great power comes great responsibility, As AI transforms our world and lives, We must ensure that it's used ethically, That it helps, rather than subverts or deprives.
So let us embrace this technological marvel, And use it wisely, for the common good, For AI has the power to unravel Our deepest mysteries, as well as hurdles.
It does what it is supposed to do very well. It is much more conversational and robust than previous chatbots. Obviously, it doesn't do everything well, and I doubt a chatbot will any time soon. Nonetheless, it is a step forward … and it will create ripples of progress.
How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.
Like most things, time is relative. It can seem to go fast, it can seem to go slow … sometimes it seems like it stands still. It's a matter of perspective. As we just saw, so is the calculation of what year it is. But, so too is the perspective of what you pay attention to, what you make it mean, and what you choose to do. There's no absolute "right" – only a seemingly endless stream of choices and opportunities.
