Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Time’s Ticking On The Doomsday Clock

    The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

    Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the biggest existential risks to humanity includes:

    1. Nuclear War: The threat of nuclear weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

    2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

    3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

    4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not properly regulated and controlled.

    5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

    6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

    Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

    The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.

    Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

    Doomsday-shiftsvia flowingdata

    The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act.  We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges.  With collaboration from the brightest minds across the world and private industry, we have the ability to solve even the world's most significant problems.

    If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

    Onwards!

  • Tracking Tech Layoffs

    We have a picture displayed at our office that illustrates one of my beliefs: "The heartbeat of AI is still human."
     
    The Heartbeat of AI is Still Human_GapingVoid
     
    This isn't true just for AI – it's true for tech in general.
     

    Despite the rapid progress in the power, speed, and use of AI (and other innovations and automation), human involvement remains crucial in its creation and implementation. 

     

    It is a reminder that the development and application of those capabilities still rely heavily on people's creativity, ingenuity, and practicality.

     
    Said a different way, substantially less of the fantastic innovations we see would be possible without the engineers, scientists, and developers … who are now being laid off in droves [link to a post about this]. 
     
    So, as the tech giants let go of talent, it's an excellent opportunity for smaller firms to capitalize.
     
    If you are looking to pick up talent, here's a great resource – https://layoffs.fyi/
     
     

    This website provides an easy-to-use platform for tracking layoffs at tech companies, as well as access to a list of the individuals who were affected. To view the details of employees who were laid off from a specific company, navigate to the "List of Employees Laid Off" tab, select the company, and click the Google Doc link in the "Link" column. This will give you access to information such as the name, title, type of work, and LinkedIn profile of the affected employees.

    Combine that with the list of new AI tools, and your business could radically change in the next six months. 
     
    I recorded a quick video about this. It's my first "YouTube Short"
     

    To summarize, these layoffs are a great opportunity … but don't lose sight of the bigger picture. You have to be long-term greedy, not short-term greedy. Recognize what you want to create and find people (or technology) that can help you get there. 
     
    Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – January 29th, 2022

    The_groundhogs_shadow

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • The Heartbeat Of AI Is Still Human

    I'm proud of our team.  We have a shared sense of Mission, Values, and Purpose.

    Also, we understand that robots aren't coming for our jobs.  We're creating the robots, the AI, and the automation – and it's exciting!

    With that said, as tech becomes more capable, some will focus on the promise … while others will focus on the peril.

    We're seeing lots of hyperbolic promise and peril in the news cycle recently because of ChatGPT. Trends in technology news appear to come in cycles, with different names and topics but similar patterns. This is because, despite the constant evolution of technology and the world, human nature remains relatively unchanged.

    While browsing a library of our old content, I came across an old news story from a local news channel that discussed finding tech talent and featured Capitalogix.  Here's the article.  You can watch the video below. 

    via NBC DFW

    We are always hiring.

    It's not enough to invest in the right ideas or technologies.  You have to invest in the right people as well. 

    "Standing still is moving backward … so you don't only need new technology, you need a new level of data scientists – a new level of professional that can think about what's possible, rather than how to do what we want to do right now."

    Even though we've got an incredible edge now, I recognize that edges decay faster than ever.  The trick is to stay ahead.  

    The future is bright, and the best way to predict the future is to create it.

    Onwards!

  • Capitalogix’s 23rd Anniversary

    Last week I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn … and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 23 years. 

    Twenty-three years … That can’t be right? Can it?

    For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.

      IMG_5265

    My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school. I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk. 

    However, depending on your definition, the 23rd anniversary can be true or false. Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration. Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence.

    It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object. It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time. The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses. It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.

    The name “Capitalogix” did originate in the year 2000 … and a surprising amount of the original North Star “purpose” still exists. Honestly, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing … but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.  

    Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come. 

    If I had known how difficult it was at the beginning, I probably never would have pursued it. However, knowing how difficult it is, and how challenging it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did because I realize that it’s not just a competitive advantage, it’s a sustainable competitive advantage. It’s easy for people to focus on a capability, it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in difficult conditions. They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger, it’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.  

    As we celebrate Chinese New Year, it also feels like a new beginning for Capitalogix as we chase after new possibilities and probabilities. 

    We didn’t come this far — just to come this far! Onwards!

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – January 22nd, 2022

    Hunting_for_classified_documents_

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • Happy Chinese New Year!

    Chinese New Year happened this weekend.

    So, Gong Xi Fa Cai … which translates to "Best wishes for a prosperous New Year!"

    Often, Jennifer and I go to Indonesia to celebrate with Jen's family, but this time we stayed home and celebrated here. 

    29164via Statista

    On New Year's it is a lot easier to celebrate when you have a party to go to … The trick is finding the celebration in the first place.

    It's interesting to think about how many New Year celebrations there are.  In addition to Chinese New Year, Muslims have Hari Raya Idul Fitri; Jews have Rosh Hashanah; of course, there is January 1st (and many others).

    Which is correct?  I think the answer is all of them.  Regardless of your chosen New Year, it provides an opportunity to celebrate, share, reflect, plan, and commit to the right actions.  If you've already fallen off the wagon of your new year's resolutions, this can be your reason to get back on them. 

    As I think about it, the same principle applies to trading.  It's all a matter of perspective.

    At some level, there really isn't a correct answer as to which trading style is best.  The best technique is the one that works.  Trading styles go in and out of phase, and if you get too attached to a particular technique, you can too easily get detached from profit.  As any experienced trader can tell you, edges decay, people catch on, and trends change.

    As businesses increasingly adopt Artificial Intelligence, the way forward is becoming evident.  This involves utilizing AI to selectively activate and deactivate specific capabilities based on their effectiveness.

    In trading or business, while no single method is guaranteed to succeed, there is always a method that can be effective.  You just have to be flexible enough to know what you want and still be willing to accept something better.

  • Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading – January 15th, 2022

    Eggs-in-one-basket

    Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

    Lighter Links:

    Trading Links:

  • The World’s Biggest Hedge Funds

    Hedge Funds have seen a downtick since COVID-19. There are still 15,000 of them (amounting to $4.5 Trillion in assets under management).

    Seventy percent of Hedge Funds are North American. 

    Visualcapitalist put together a guide to the 20 biggest funds. It puts the consolidation of wealth into perspective. 

    HedgeFunds_MAINNov30via visualcapitalist

    Unsurprisingly, Bridgewater tops the list by a wide margin with nearly double the assets of their closest competitor. And, despite poor performance by many funds, the overall state of the market means that many funds still saw growth. 

    The expansion of hedge funds may not always align with general market trends – and is not necessarily a reflection of the overall economic situation. However, studying and evaluating their growth and results can still be beneficial. 

  • AI Tools For Your Business

    Last week, I talked about the time value of time – and the benefit of quality peer groups. 

    On Friday, one of those peer groups spent hours talking about the promise and peril of generative AI. While some people remained skeptical or in fear of what tools like ChatGPT made possible. 

    One of the members shared an AI tool directory that I thought was worth sharing as well. It's called Futurepedia.io 

    Screen Shot 2023-01-13 at 9.39.19 PM

    via futurepedia.io

    My contribution to the discussion was brief, but it amounts to this … Nothing you're hearing about AI should scare you. It should scream opportunity.  You don't have to rush.  AI is at the beginning of a long upwards sloping cycle of impact and capability. However, AI isn't duct tape, and for most, it's not a business … it's a tool to help you create a bigger future that wasn't possible before.  Much like "internet" companies came and went in the late 1990s … yet almost every company uses the internet in ways that were unimaginable at the beginning of the cycle.

    People often get stuck searching for 'something' (often a singular goal or result). But, in their myopia, they miss the possibility of 'or something better.' 

    In my business, I'm rarely happy to settle for less than I'm aiming for … but I am willing to happily take the 'or something better'. Nonetheless, it is hard to see (let alone be open to) other targets or possibilities when you myopically focus on achieving the lesser (but specific) goal or target you initially chose to focus upon.

    So, here is a thought to ponder …

    What is opportunity, and when does it knock? It never knocks. You can wait a whole lifetime, listening, hoping, and you will hear no knocking. None at all. You are opportunity, and you must knock on the door leading to your destiny. You prepare yourself to recognize opportunity, to pursue and seize opportunity as you develop the strength of your personality, and build a self-image with which you are able to live — with your self-respect alive and growing. ~ Maxwell Maltz

    Imagine what you believe this tipping point indicates is possible personally and professionally.

    Hope that helps.