Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Want to See a Downtrend? Check-Out the Dow Priced in Gold.

    I use a service called “Chart of the Day” – and as you might guess – they post one chart each day. I love preparing my own charts. But, I think the way I think. Sometimes, I get a new insight or perspective from how others see the market.

    What follows is an example of a chart I wouldn’t have thought of myself. The second chart provides a little context and contrast.

    The Dow Priced in Gold:
    The Dow currently trades about 15% below its all-time record high. For some further perspective into how the stock market is actually performing, the chart below shows the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold.

    This results in what is referred to as the Dow / Gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes 12.9 ounces of gold to “buy the Dow.” This is considerably less that the 44.8 ounces back in the year 1999. When priced in that other world currency (gold), the Dow is in the midst of a massive eight year bear market!


    Gold versus the Dollar: Thanks in part to a large US trade deficit and a weak US economy, the US dollar continues to trend lower. For some perspective, the next chart illustrates the current trend in the US dollar (blue line) as well as that other world currency, gold (gray line). As this chart illustrates, the performance of the US dollar has varied inversely to that of gold since October 2005. It is worth noting that the US dollar is currently testing support.


    from <http://www.chartoftheday.com>

    March 8, 2008

  • Custom Index Built with Worden Blocks

    Worden Blocks is a fun and useful tool.  It is very easy to build and customize charts, indicators, and scans.  Here is an example of something built with Blocks.  It is a composite index of the five major US equity indices (Dow, S&P, Naz, Russell 2K, and MidCap).  On the version I use, I also have a tool that shows the percent change from any date to any other date.  I marked two of them on the chart below.
    080229_clgx_markets_index_from_0710

  • Custom Index Built with Worden Blocks

    Worden Blocks is a fun and useful tool.  It is very easy to build and customize charts, indicators, and scans.  Here is an example of something built with Blocks.  It is a composite index of the five major US equity indices (Dow, S&P, Naz, Russell 2K, and MidCap).  On the version I use, I also have a tool that shows the percent change from any date to any other date.  I marked two of them on the chart below.
    080229_clgx_markets_index_from_0710

  • Market Commentary from February 29th

    Up_down_stock Who asked for the extra day in February anyway?   Certainly not me. The week started great.  Then investor confidence took another blow Friday as the S&P 500 declined by 2.7%; its worst day in a long time.

    If you were watching, I don’t have to tell you how bad it was late last week.  Bottom Line: oversold market conditions and a fair amount of manipulation from the sidelines has not been sufficient to move the market out of the consolidation range of the last several weeks.

    The whipsaw volatility seen the last few weeks worsened Thursday and Friday. After attempts early in the week to take the market up and beyond the contracting Triangle patterns found on most of the US equity indices, the selling on Friday brought us down to levels where the lower-range boundaries of the Triangles are now clearly threatened.

    On the other hand, DecisionPoint had an interesting chart that may indicate we’ll see a major low soon.  It shows the percent of NYSE Stocks trading above their 200-day moving average.080229_percent_nyse_above_200_ema

  • Market Commentary from February 29th

    Up_down_stock Who asked for the extra day in February anyway?   Certainly not me. The week started great.  Then investor confidence took another blow Friday as the S&P 500 declined by 2.7%; its worst day in a long time.

    If you were watching, I don’t have to tell you how bad it was late last week.  Bottom Line: oversold market conditions and a fair amount of manipulation from the sidelines has not been sufficient to move the market out of the consolidation range of the last several weeks.

    The whipsaw volatility seen the last few weeks worsened Thursday and Friday. After attempts early in the week to take the market up and beyond the contracting Triangle patterns found on most of the US equity indices, the selling on Friday brought us down to levels where the lower-range boundaries of the Triangles are now clearly threatened.

    On the other hand, DecisionPoint had an interesting chart that may indicate we’ll see a major low soon.  It shows the percent of NYSE Stocks trading above their 200-day moving average.080229_percent_nyse_above_200_ema

  • Market Commentary as of February 22nd, 2008

    Market Commentary Most major US equity indices are in a "triangle" consolidation pattern (like the one shown in the chart below). I view this as constructive, even if it results in lower prices short-term. The bear-swing down, from late December through January, had a lot of momentum. The consolidation worked-off a lot of that. Consequently, another move down would result in many positive divergences – and would likely be strong support for the next rally.

    080222_spx_triangle_for_blog_5

    Choppiness increased as we moved further to the point of the "triangle" shown above. It makes sense, doesn’t it? The upper and lower boundaries for market swing is getting smaller (both in size and in time). The result is choppiness – or volatility that we’ve seen recently.

    Think of this as a well-contested battle between the bulls and the bears. Neither side has given-up much ground, yet. Soon, though, one side will have had enough and the market will surge again.

    Every once in awhile I feel the need to remind people that regardless of my personal opinion, we rely on the mechanical trading models to determine our market posture. And that my comments are intended for information and context.

  • Market Commentary as of February 22nd, 2008

    Market Commentary Most major US equity indices are in a "triangle" consolidation pattern (like the one shown in the chart below). I view this as constructive, even if it results in lower prices short-term. The bear-swing down, from late December through January, had a lot of momentum. The consolidation worked-off a lot of that. Consequently, another move down would result in many positive divergences – and would likely be strong support for the next rally.

    080222_spx_triangle_for_blog_5

    Choppiness increased as we moved further to the point of the "triangle" shown above. It makes sense, doesn’t it? The upper and lower boundaries for market swing is getting smaller (both in size and in time). The result is choppiness – or volatility that we’ve seen recently.

    Think of this as a well-contested battle between the bulls and the bears. Neither side has given-up much ground, yet. Soon, though, one side will have had enough and the market will surge again.

    Every once in awhile I feel the need to remind people that regardless of my personal opinion, we rely on the mechanical trading models to determine our market posture. And that my comments are intended for information and context.

  • Finding Your Center

    Managing stress and controlling mental states are important components of being successful personally and in business. I know that I operate and respond better when I am in flow, or "in-the-zone." So, I value tools and techniques that help me get there.

    One of these tools is called Holosync. It is still incredibly useful to me, even though I've been using it for over five years.

    It induces relaxation and meditative states without any effort or technical know-how. Simply put on the headphones and listen to seemingly normal music. The sounds are specially encoded to do all the work.

    The basic premise is that sound waves can affect brain waves.

    Centerpointe Logo
    Bill Harris has built a business around figuring out the brain wave patterns for meditation, creativity, compassion, etc. – and finding a way to send tones through headphones to help guide your brain waves into the chosen pattern.

    It is a very pleasant experience. Bill was a musician and has made sure that the scientific stuff is well-hidden beneath, nicely arranged musical scores and relaxation sounds.

    My heart rate calms down, my head clears, and In a few minutes I'm in a measurably better state. How do I know? Because I have a biofeedback device that measures my pulse, heart rate, galvanic skin response, and other readings to help me learn to relax better.

    I have tried various breathing and focus techniques, with varying degrees of success. However, without fail, I simply put on the headphones, and I relax.

    Not just me, though, either. I've demonstrated this to skeptical children, friends, and even my wife. All of them experience the same thing. We hook them up to the biofeedback machine, we put the headphones on them, and they relax.

    I use it several times a week, and almost every time I travel. I find myself using Holosync mostly at night. However, our portfolio manager uses it at the beginning of the day. He claims that it helps him concentrate and it puts him a better state to do his job.

    You be the judge, though. Bill has a free trial at his website. Here is the link. All in all, this is certainly a technology worth investigating.

    What follows is from a promotional piece for Holosync. Normally I wouldn't include this type of information. However, I use the product and agree with the message.

    -HMG

    _________________________________

    OK, I admit it… I'm amazed!

    I know from personal experience how beneficial and effective the Centerpointe Holosync® program has been in my life. And I know how valuable it's been to many of my closest friends and associates…

    As you know, our passion here is to make available to people just like you–the best and most effective ways to…

    • Dramatically improve your mental, emotional, and spiritual health…
    • Help you create real and constant happiness in your life, regardless of your past or present circumstances…
    • Improve your creativity, intelligence, and mental functioning…
    • Significantly improve your overall sense of well-being and inner peace…
    • Help you create your own success in the world, along with the personal satisfaction and sense of fulfillment that comes with being successful.

    Well, judging from the mail I've received about Centerpointe's, The Holosync Solution™, we've obviously hit the nail on the head.

    I've actually recommended this program many times over the past several years, and I've always been impressed by the positive comments I've received from so many people who have used it.

    The common thread running through most of these comments is that Centerpointe's Holosync audio technology really does create the benefits mentioned above.

    I'll tell you a few brief points about the program in a moment, but you really need to go to Centerpointe's website.

    Now, here's just a "taste" of what The Holosync Solution can do for you…

    1. It can allow you to effortlessly reach states of deep meditation–even the very first time you use it…
    2. It can dramatically accelerate your mental, emotional, and spiritual growth, giving you the results you always THOUGHT you were supposed to get from meditation (but, if you're like most people, never really got)…
    3. It can dramatically raise your threshold for stress and cause stress-induced dysfunctional feelings and behaviors (including anger, depression, fear, anxiety, substance abuse, and many others) to fall away … and
    4. It can increase your self-awareness, inner peace, and happiness, as well as your ability to connect with other people and create successful relationships.

    If you've tried meditation, or some of those other personal growth approaches that just didn't deliver, or just want to go MUCH deeper, with faster results… or if you just want to grow and improve your life at an accelerated pace, I know you'll love The Holosync Solution.

    Look. I don't recommend things to my friends and clients lightly. But I'd be doing you a disservice if I didn't share this with you. There's no risk to check it out, and I know you'll be glad you did.

  • Finding Your Center

    Managing stress and controlling mental states are important components of being successful personally and in business. I know that I operate and respond better when I am in flow, or "in-the-zone." So, I value tools and techniques that help me get there.

    One of these tools is called Holosync. It is still incredibly useful to me, even though I've been using it for over five years.

    It induces relaxation and meditative states without any effort or technical know-how. Simply put on the headphones and listen to seemingly normal music. The sounds are specially encoded to do all the work.

    The basic premise is that sound waves can affect brain waves.

    Centerpointe Logo
    Bill Harris has built a business around figuring out the brain wave patterns for meditation, creativity, compassion, etc. – and finding a way to send tones through headphones to help guide your brain waves into the chosen pattern.

    It is a very pleasant experience. Bill was a musician and has made sure that the scientific stuff is well-hidden beneath, nicely arranged musical scores and relaxation sounds.

    My heart rate calms down, my head clears, and In a few minutes I'm in a measurably better state. How do I know? Because I have a biofeedback device that measures my pulse, heart rate, galvanic skin response, and other readings to help me learn to relax better.

    I have tried various breathing and focus techniques, with varying degrees of success. However, without fail, I simply put on the headphones, and I relax.

    Not just me, though, either. I've demonstrated this to skeptical children, friends, and even my wife. All of them experience the same thing. We hook them up to the biofeedback machine, we put the headphones on them, and they relax.

    I use it several times a week, and almost every time I travel. I find myself using Holosync mostly at night. However, our portfolio manager uses it at the beginning of the day. He claims that it helps him concentrate and it puts him a better state to do his job.

    You be the judge, though. Bill has a free trial at his website. Here is the link. All in all, this is certainly a technology worth investigating.

    What follows is from a promotional piece for Holosync. Normally I wouldn't include this type of information. However, I use the product and agree with the message.

    -HMG

    _________________________________

    OK, I admit it… I'm amazed!

    I know from personal experience how beneficial and effective the Centerpointe Holosync® program has been in my life. And I know how valuable it's been to many of my closest friends and associates…

    As you know, our passion here is to make available to people just like you–the best and most effective ways to…

    • Dramatically improve your mental, emotional, and spiritual health…
    • Help you create real and constant happiness in your life, regardless of your past or present circumstances…
    • Improve your creativity, intelligence, and mental functioning…
    • Significantly improve your overall sense of well-being and inner peace…
    • Help you create your own success in the world, along with the personal satisfaction and sense of fulfillment that comes with being successful.

    Well, judging from the mail I've received about Centerpointe's, The Holosync Solution™, we've obviously hit the nail on the head.

    I've actually recommended this program many times over the past several years, and I've always been impressed by the positive comments I've received from so many people who have used it.

    The common thread running through most of these comments is that Centerpointe's Holosync audio technology really does create the benefits mentioned above.

    I'll tell you a few brief points about the program in a moment, but you really need to go to Centerpointe's website.

    Now, here's just a "taste" of what The Holosync Solution can do for you…

    1. It can allow you to effortlessly reach states of deep meditation–even the very first time you use it…
    2. It can dramatically accelerate your mental, emotional, and spiritual growth, giving you the results you always THOUGHT you were supposed to get from meditation (but, if you're like most people, never really got)…
    3. It can dramatically raise your threshold for stress and cause stress-induced dysfunctional feelings and behaviors (including anger, depression, fear, anxiety, substance abuse, and many others) to fall away … and
    4. It can increase your self-awareness, inner peace, and happiness, as well as your ability to connect with other people and create successful relationships.

    If you've tried meditation, or some of those other personal growth approaches that just didn't deliver, or just want to go MUCH deeper, with faster results… or if you just want to grow and improve your life at an accelerated pace, I know you'll love The Holosync Solution.

    Look. I don't recommend things to my friends and clients lightly. But I'd be doing you a disservice if I didn't share this with you. There's no risk to check it out, and I know you'll be glad you did.

  • Are You a Dictator?

    Inertia is tough.  There is often no barrier too small to halt progress. 

    • After a meeting, do your notes get into your computer?
    • Do you send the follow-up correspondence you thought about and know you should? 
    • When you think of something that you need to do – do you capture the idea and add it to your list?
    • Do you regularly store your thoughts, plans and insights (even when they occur at odd times)?

    For me, sitting down to write or type has been the biggest barrier to action.  Now, rather than type, I use two great transcription services: Jott and CopyTalk.

    Jott is free; and currently offers unlimited 30 second transcriptions.  This is perfect for To-Do list items or one-thought notes to yourself or others.

    It turns out that I often want a longer talk time.  CopyTalk offers unlimited 4-minute transcriptions.  Perfect for letters, memos, journaling, etc.  Obviously it is a great business productivity tool; yet, I also use it as an always available electronic journal.

    CopyTalk is now a speed dial on my phone – and using caller ID – it knows it is me … so I just start dictating.  I get the text in my e-mail typically within the hour. 

    Here is a picture of CopyTalk’s web interface for their phone dictation transcription service. 

    Very convenient, and I like it a lot!

    I use Microsoft’s OneNote as my content management tool.  So when I get back a dictation from the service, I choose to categorize it either as something to go in my weekly commentary, an item for this blog, a personal journal item, or correspondence.

    I found that I do best when I dictate right after a meeting.  However, I also found it very helpful to schedule time to dictate every day.  Sometimes I get a great nugget, right in the middle of a whole bunch of (pardon the French) crap.  Nonetheless, for me, dictating has been a good habit and a good muscle to develop.

    Of course I see myself as a benevolent dictator.

    If you have questions about CopyTalk call Chris Clayton at (866) 267-9825 ext 406.  Please let Chris know that I referred you.