Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Travel IQ

    Trip Advisor has an interesting game called Traveler IQ Challenge.

    brought to you by TravelPod, the Web’s Original Travel Blog ( A TripAdvisor Media Network member )

    I thought it was fun. 

    080516_farecast_when_and_where_3On a related note, here are some of my favorite Travel sites.

    Farecast:  This site has lots of nice features.  This link shows cheap fares from a city.  The graphic to the right shows other features to look for on that page.  For example:

    • when to travel (which days have the lowest fares), and
    • where to travel (which cities have the best deals).

    Kayak: Search 140+ travel sites at once to find and compare the cheapest fares from all sites together – great grids and filters to find what you are looking for fast.

    Airfare Watchdog:  Up-to-date list of low fares from major airlines (including Southwest).  You can subscribe to alerts too.

  • Travel IQ

    Trip Advisor has an interesting game called Traveler IQ Challenge.

    brought to you by TravelPod, the Web’s Original Travel Blog ( A TripAdvisor Media Network member )

    I thought it was fun. 

    080516_farecast_when_and_where_3On a related note, here are some of my favorite Travel sites.

    Farecast:  This site has lots of nice features.  This link shows cheap fares from a city.  The graphic to the right shows other features to look for on that page.  For example:

    • when to travel (which days have the lowest fares), and
    • where to travel (which cities have the best deals).

    Kayak: Search 140+ travel sites at once to find and compare the cheapest fares from all sites together – great grids and filters to find what you are looking for fast.

    Airfare Watchdog:  Up-to-date list of low fares from major airlines (including Southwest).  You can subscribe to alerts too.

  • Coupon to Buy Gas

    If it wasn’t so close to the truth, this would be funny.

    Gas_coupon

  • Market Wizard Sings the Truth

    This is a video done by Ed Seykota. He is a well-known trader and was featured in Jack Schwager’s great series on "Market Wizards."  His website is here. http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

    Here is the page link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM

    interesting …

  • Market Wizard Sings the Truth

    This is a video done by Ed Seykota. He is a well-known trader and was featured in Jack Schwager’s great series on "Market Wizards."  His website is here. http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

    Here is the page link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM

    interesting …

  • Weekly Market Commentary from 5/09/08

    While the market did pull back, as expected, it was orderly and relatively mild.

    The chart below shows daily view of a composite of the 5 markets we currently trade. 

    080509_composite_index_above_suppor
    The Markets are above the red support line and the yellow down-trend;
    both of those are bullish indicators.  Though not on the chart by itself, last week the S&P 500 index could not hold above the 1400 level that we’ve been following.  That is
    worth watching this week.

    Also note that this chart shows that
    the rally from March 10 through last week retraced just over 50% of the
    loss from the October highs. 

    The graphic below is a market heat map from FinViz that shows that last week was good for the Oil & Gas sector (because it shows up as mostly green) and bad for the Financials (shown mostly in bright red).

    080509_finviz_heatmapThis free site has a simple yet powerful stock screener, maps that allow you to see sector and stock rotation, and insider trading info.  It is worth checking-out.

  • Weekly Market Commentary from 5/09/08

    While the market did pull back, as expected, it was orderly and relatively mild.

    The chart below shows daily view of a composite of the 5 markets we currently trade. 

    080509_composite_index_above_suppor
    The Markets are above the red support line and the yellow down-trend;
    both of those are bullish indicators.  Though not on the chart by itself, last week the S&P 500 index could not hold above the 1400 level that we’ve been following.  That is
    worth watching this week.

    Also note that this chart shows that
    the rally from March 10 through last week retraced just over 50% of the
    loss from the October highs. 

    The graphic below is a market heat map from FinViz that shows that last week was good for the Oil & Gas sector (because it shows up as mostly green) and bad for the Financials (shown mostly in bright red).

    080509_finviz_heatmapThis free site has a simple yet powerful stock screener, maps that allow you to see sector and stock rotation, and insider trading info.  It is worth checking-out.

  • At least Someone Wants US Dollars

    0805_somali_riots
    At least someone wants US Dollars
    .

    In a cautionary tale about what happens when
    inflation gets out of control, there were riots in Somalia recently over rising
    costs, counterfeit money and local traders refusing to accept local notes (demanding
    US dollars instead). 

    While the scale is different, human responses to fear and greed
    are universal.

    Whack! What Happened to Real Estate?

    Fear hits a little closer to home.  Recently, the US housing market has taken a pretty big hit.  Apparently, California has been hit harder than most other parts of the country.  Here is an LA Times article making that abundantly clear.

    It made me check the value of my house.  Here is a site that makes that easy; it is called  Zillow.  Certainly worth the click.

    080509_crash_car_sale_250p_3

    All this led me to an interesting photo essay about crashes, stagflation and bear markets from US News World Report. 

    This photo shows a bankrupt investor attempting to sell his luxury roadster for $100 cash on the streets of New York, October 30, 1929.

    Hopefully, by listening to the whispers of history, we won’t have to repeat it.

  • Focusing on the Right Things

    A few years ago I had lunch with Larry Connors (who is a well-known trader and runs the website TradingMarkets.com).  We were talking about what makes great traders great, and what causes some of them to get in trouble.

    Larry said he believes that many people with a real "edge" fail to exploit it because they get bored.  The personality trait that helped them develop their system often leads them astray; they focus on finding new things rather than on making money with what they know works.

    As I think about this, I have a slightly different explanation.  Most systems with an "edge" only have a small edge.  That means that successful traders suffer frequent set-backs, drawdowns and situations where they did everything right, but still lost money.  It is natural for them to use their natural talents to avoid unnecessary pain, right?

    Most successful businesses balance operational excellence and making money now with research and development (which helps ensure that they will make money in the future).  So, it makes sense that the best traders continue to grow, learn, and make new and better distinctions.

    One of the Siren songs of trading, though, is that the fear of losing has so much gravity that it often pulls focus from more productive endeavors.  In other words, there is a difference between "working on a problem" and "working towards a solution."

    Focusing on what you are trying to avoid is distracting and painful.  In my experience, the best results come when the focus is on what you want.

  • Focusing on the Right Things

    A few years ago I had lunch with Larry Connors (who is a well-known trader and runs the website TradingMarkets.com).  We were talking about what makes great traders great, and what causes some of them to get in trouble.

    Larry said he believes that many people with a real "edge" fail to exploit it because they get bored.  The personality trait that helped them develop their system often leads them astray; they focus on finding new things rather than on making money with what they know works.

    As I think about this, I have a slightly different explanation.  Most systems with an "edge" only have a small edge.  That means that successful traders suffer frequent set-backs, drawdowns and situations where they did everything right, but still lost money.  It is natural for them to use their natural talents to avoid unnecessary pain, right?

    Most successful businesses balance operational excellence and making money now with research and development (which helps ensure that they will make money in the future).  So, it makes sense that the best traders continue to grow, learn, and make new and better distinctions.

    One of the Siren songs of trading, though, is that the fear of losing has so much gravity that it often pulls focus from more productive endeavors.  In other words, there is a difference between "working on a problem" and "working towards a solution."

    Focusing on what you are trying to avoid is distracting and painful.  In my experience, the best results come when the focus is on what you want.