Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • What is Your Intention?

    Mellensmartblow_rough_sea
    Fear, greed and hope comprise the Bermuda Triangle of trading. Many dreams were battered or lost because of them.

    In trading, my goal is to make and keep money, consistently. It isn’t to be right, or clever, or even creative. Reducing human bias and error are benefits of using automated trading systems; and ultimately that helps us intelligently respond to the markets.

    How does that apply to life?

    Oh, a small question …

    A friend of mine called me this week to share a thought. He said that he was trying to stop simply responding automatically to situations. Instead, he was going to consciously focus on his "intention" before responding.

    Imagine how different the world would occur to you if you brought "intention" into focus instead of mindlessly surrendering to your first feelings and actions.

    Triumphant_man_on_water_200p_2
    My first reaction often is to ask "what is the best next step?" Perhaps you do something similar? On many levels that is a resourceful question. Yet, what would happen if, instead, you brought your intention into focus and asked what role you could play to best support that intention?

    Your role directly affects the options you perceive.

    Let me know how that works for you.

  • What is Your Intention?

    Mellensmartblow_rough_sea
    Fear, greed and hope comprise the Bermuda Triangle of trading. Many dreams were battered or lost because of them.

    In trading, my goal is to make and keep money, consistently. It isn’t to be right, or clever, or even creative. Reducing human bias and error are benefits of using automated trading systems; and ultimately that helps us intelligently respond to the markets.

    How does that apply to life?

    Oh, a small question …

    A friend of mine called me this week to share a thought. He said that he was trying to stop simply responding automatically to situations. Instead, he was going to consciously focus on his "intention" before responding.

    Imagine how different the world would occur to you if you brought "intention" into focus instead of mindlessly surrendering to your first feelings and actions.

    Triumphant_man_on_water_200p_2
    My first reaction often is to ask "what is the best next step?" Perhaps you do something similar? On many levels that is a resourceful question. Yet, what would happen if, instead, you brought your intention into focus and asked what role you could play to best support that intention?

    Your role directly affects the options you perceive.

    Let me know how that works for you.

  • Travel IQ

    Trip Advisor has an interesting game called Traveler IQ Challenge.

    brought to you by TravelPod, the Web’s Original Travel Blog ( A TripAdvisor Media Network member )

    I thought it was fun. 

    080516_farecast_when_and_where_3On a related note, here are some of my favorite Travel sites.

    Farecast:  This site has lots of nice features.  This link shows cheap fares from a city.  The graphic to the right shows other features to look for on that page.  For example:

    • when to travel (which days have the lowest fares), and
    • where to travel (which cities have the best deals).

    Kayak: Search 140+ travel sites at once to find and compare the cheapest fares from all sites together – great grids and filters to find what you are looking for fast.

    Airfare Watchdog:  Up-to-date list of low fares from major airlines (including Southwest).  You can subscribe to alerts too.

  • Travel IQ

    Trip Advisor has an interesting game called Traveler IQ Challenge.

    brought to you by TravelPod, the Web’s Original Travel Blog ( A TripAdvisor Media Network member )

    I thought it was fun. 

    080516_farecast_when_and_where_3On a related note, here are some of my favorite Travel sites.

    Farecast:  This site has lots of nice features.  This link shows cheap fares from a city.  The graphic to the right shows other features to look for on that page.  For example:

    • when to travel (which days have the lowest fares), and
    • where to travel (which cities have the best deals).

    Kayak: Search 140+ travel sites at once to find and compare the cheapest fares from all sites together – great grids and filters to find what you are looking for fast.

    Airfare Watchdog:  Up-to-date list of low fares from major airlines (including Southwest).  You can subscribe to alerts too.

  • Coupon to Buy Gas

    If it wasn’t so close to the truth, this would be funny.

    Gas_coupon

  • Market Wizard Sings the Truth

    This is a video done by Ed Seykota. He is a well-known trader and was featured in Jack Schwager’s great series on "Market Wizards."  His website is here. http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

    Here is the page link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM

    interesting …

  • Market Wizard Sings the Truth

    This is a video done by Ed Seykota. He is a well-known trader and was featured in Jack Schwager’s great series on "Market Wizards."  His website is here. http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

    Here is the page link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM

    interesting …

  • Weekly Market Commentary from 5/09/08

    While the market did pull back, as expected, it was orderly and relatively mild.

    The chart below shows daily view of a composite of the 5 markets we currently trade. 

    080509_composite_index_above_suppor
    The Markets are above the red support line and the yellow down-trend;
    both of those are bullish indicators.  Though not on the chart by itself, last week the S&P 500 index could not hold above the 1400 level that we’ve been following.  That is
    worth watching this week.

    Also note that this chart shows that
    the rally from March 10 through last week retraced just over 50% of the
    loss from the October highs. 

    The graphic below is a market heat map from FinViz that shows that last week was good for the Oil & Gas sector (because it shows up as mostly green) and bad for the Financials (shown mostly in bright red).

    080509_finviz_heatmapThis free site has a simple yet powerful stock screener, maps that allow you to see sector and stock rotation, and insider trading info.  It is worth checking-out.

  • Weekly Market Commentary from 5/09/08

    While the market did pull back, as expected, it was orderly and relatively mild.

    The chart below shows daily view of a composite of the 5 markets we currently trade. 

    080509_composite_index_above_suppor
    The Markets are above the red support line and the yellow down-trend;
    both of those are bullish indicators.  Though not on the chart by itself, last week the S&P 500 index could not hold above the 1400 level that we’ve been following.  That is
    worth watching this week.

    Also note that this chart shows that
    the rally from March 10 through last week retraced just over 50% of the
    loss from the October highs. 

    The graphic below is a market heat map from FinViz that shows that last week was good for the Oil & Gas sector (because it shows up as mostly green) and bad for the Financials (shown mostly in bright red).

    080509_finviz_heatmapThis free site has a simple yet powerful stock screener, maps that allow you to see sector and stock rotation, and insider trading info.  It is worth checking-out.

  • At least Someone Wants US Dollars

    0805_somali_riots
    At least someone wants US Dollars
    .

    In a cautionary tale about what happens when
    inflation gets out of control, there were riots in Somalia recently over rising
    costs, counterfeit money and local traders refusing to accept local notes (demanding
    US dollars instead). 

    While the scale is different, human responses to fear and greed
    are universal.

    Whack! What Happened to Real Estate?

    Fear hits a little closer to home.  Recently, the US housing market has taken a pretty big hit.  Apparently, California has been hit harder than most other parts of the country.  Here is an LA Times article making that abundantly clear.

    It made me check the value of my house.  Here is a site that makes that easy; it is called  Zillow.  Certainly worth the click.

    080509_crash_car_sale_250p_3

    All this led me to an interesting photo essay about crashes, stagflation and bear markets from US News World Report. 

    This photo shows a bankrupt investor attempting to sell his luxury roadster for $100 cash on the streets of New York, October 30, 1929.

    Hopefully, by listening to the whispers of history, we won’t have to repeat it.