Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Resilience

    080815 Phelps 250
    Watching the Olympics
    has been an uplifting reminder for me.  The sport of it is fun to
    watch.  Yet, the deeper story is even better.

    For example,
    Michael Phelps was expected to break Mark Spitz's record in Athens
    four-years ago.  While he was dominating, it just didn't happen, then. 

    Can you imagine setting world records, winning gold medals, and still feeling like you came up short?

    Can you imagine how many times he replayed the missing hundredths of a second that separated him from his dream?
    So how did he do it this time?

    Somehow
    the great ones are resilient and durable in distressing situations. 
    They adapt and cope; and ultimately gain strength from adversity —
    often converting it into a gift.  They find a way to transform what
    seemed like setbacks into the fuel they need to get to the next level.

    Nietzsche
    said "that which does not kill me, makes me stronger."  And that
    statement applies to trading and funds management as well.   Trading
    often seems like it is not fair – and that can be very good for us. 

  • Resilience

    080815 Phelps 250
    Watching the Olympics
    has been an uplifting reminder for me.  The sport of it is fun to
    watch.  Yet, the deeper story is even better.

    For example,
    Michael Phelps was expected to break Mark Spitz's record in Athens
    four-years ago.  While he was dominating, it just didn't happen, then. 

    Can you imagine setting world records, winning gold medals, and still feeling like you came up short?

    Can you imagine how many times he replayed the missing hundredths of a second that separated him from his dream?
    So how did he do it this time?

    Somehow
    the great ones are resilient and durable in distressing situations. 
    They adapt and cope; and ultimately gain strength from adversity —
    often converting it into a gift.  They find a way to transform what
    seemed like setbacks into the fuel they need to get to the next level.

    Nietzsche
    said "that which does not kill me, makes me stronger."  And that
    statement applies to trading and funds management as well.   Trading
    often seems like it is not fair – and that can be very good for us. 

  • Pilobolus: Things Aren’t Always What They Seem

    In trading, recognizing that things aren't always what they seem is a big part of the game. 

    Here is a clever video that plays on that concept. It is from Pilobolus, a talented dance and performance art troupe.

    Here is the direct link.

    And this one has an unexpected ending.



    Here is the direct link

    Also, here is a link to their performance at the TED conference. (TED)

    And here is an article about the "magic" of Pilobolus worth looking at. (CBS)

  • Pilobolus: Things Aren’t Always What They Seem

    In trading, recognizing that things aren't always what they seem is a big part of the game. 

    Here is a clever video that plays on that concept. It is from Pilobolus, a talented dance and performance art troupe.

    Here is the direct link.

    And this one has an unexpected ending.



    Here is the direct link

    Also, here is a link to their performance at the TED conference. (TED)

    And here is an article about the "magic" of Pilobolus worth looking at. (CBS)

  • Weekly Commentary through August 8th 2008

    The Markets are up, but relatively trendless.  Yes the recent lows have held, and I'm seeing higher lows (and that is a bullish sign).  However, recently, the thing to note has been the markets' volatility.  For the Dow, there have been seven 200-point up or down days and two 300-point up days … but in that time, the Dow is only up 36 points. It is tough to hold trades overnight in this type of trading environment.  Going home bullish or bearish hasn't led to peaceful sleep lately.

    Here are some other stats to ponder.  First, 300-point rallies are pretty normal during bear markets (and in the beginning of new bull markets).  Also, It is quite normal to have intermediate term rallies in bear markets that last 2-3 months. The last one lasted 2 months; but only had narrow leadership in the Commodities.  This time the leadership is much broader (most everything, except Commodities).

    Also this week, the Fed held rates steady, and the US Dollar Index now trades above its 50-day and 200-day
    moving averages, signaling a breakout from its five-month trading range.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • IPOs at 5-Year Low, Worldwide (WSJ)
    • Wharton Finance Professor, Jeremy Siegel Calls a Market Bottom (Morningstar)
    • Rackspace IPO loses 20% on first day of trading (WSJ)
    • President Bush: "Wall Street got drunk"…"and now it's got a hangover" (Wall $t. Folly)
    • Does the 4-Year Presidential Cycle have predictive power in the markets? (CXO Advisory)
    • Too many ETFs, too little volume; the weakest are closing (Bespoke)
    • Crisis Averted: Improvisation is one thing, Policy is another (NYTimes)
    • Foreign money buying US properties at deep discounts (NYPost)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Big Brother is watching: Apple shuts down "I Am Rich" Application for iPhones (Download Squad)
    • Innovations show how water-starved countries could solve their food crises (NYTimes)
    • At $6BB spent, Olympic Security is No Game; but they do ride Segways (BusinessWeek)
    • Twitter's micro-blogging success suggests I'm old, because I still don't get it (Fortune)
    • Caffeine Myths De-Bunked; go get a cup of coffee (NYTimes)

  • Weekly Commentary through August 8th 2008

    The Markets are up, but relatively trendless.  Yes the recent lows have held, and I'm seeing higher lows (and that is a bullish sign).  However, recently, the thing to note has been the markets' volatility.  For the Dow, there have been seven 200-point up or down days and two 300-point up days … but in that time, the Dow is only up 36 points. It is tough to hold trades overnight in this type of trading environment.  Going home bullish or bearish hasn't led to peaceful sleep lately.

    Here are some other stats to ponder.  First, 300-point rallies are pretty normal during bear markets (and in the beginning of new bull markets).  Also, It is quite normal to have intermediate term rallies in bear markets that last 2-3 months. The last one lasted 2 months; but only had narrow leadership in the Commodities.  This time the leadership is much broader (most everything, except Commodities).

    Also this week, the Fed held rates steady, and the US Dollar Index now trades above its 50-day and 200-day
    moving averages, signaling a breakout from its five-month trading range.

    Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

    • IPOs at 5-Year Low, Worldwide (WSJ)
    • Wharton Finance Professor, Jeremy Siegel Calls a Market Bottom (Morningstar)
    • Rackspace IPO loses 20% on first day of trading (WSJ)
    • President Bush: "Wall Street got drunk"…"and now it's got a hangover" (Wall $t. Folly)
    • Does the 4-Year Presidential Cycle have predictive power in the markets? (CXO Advisory)
    • Too many ETFs, too little volume; the weakest are closing (Bespoke)
    • Crisis Averted: Improvisation is one thing, Policy is another (NYTimes)
    • Foreign money buying US properties at deep discounts (NYPost)

    And, a little bit extra:

    • Big Brother is watching: Apple shuts down "I Am Rich" Application for iPhones (Download Squad)
    • Innovations show how water-starved countries could solve their food crises (NYTimes)
    • At $6BB spent, Olympic Security is No Game; but they do ride Segways (BusinessWeek)
    • Twitter's micro-blogging success suggests I'm old, because I still don't get it (Fortune)
    • Caffeine Myths De-Bunked; go get a cup of coffee (NYTimes)

  • Cool Chart Showing Olympic Medals Won

    Technical traders use a lot of data visualization tools.  So it isn't surprising that this tendency spills over into other areas of my life.  Consequently, I enjoy chart porn like this map showing which countries won Olympic medals.  It is interactive, and fun to play with for a minute or two.

    080804 Map of Olympic Medals(NYTimes)

  • Olympic Extra

    Beijing2008
    In China, "8" is believed to be a most powerful, and lucky, number.

    So it is not surprising that Chinese began the Olympics on 08-08-08 at 8:08 PM.

    Here is a link to Wikipedia's info page  and NBC's covering these Olympic games.

    And here is a link to Wired's coverage of the tech behind the games.

  • Olympic Extra

    Beijing2008
    In China, "8" is believed to be a most powerful, and lucky, number.

    So it is not surprising that Chinese began the Olympics on 08-08-08 at 8:08 PM.

    Here is a link to Wikipedia's info page  and NBC's covering these Olympic games.

    And here is a link to Wired's coverage of the tech behind the games.

  • An Olympic Attempt At Humor

    As the Olympics begin, I saw this and thought it was worth sharing.

    Indexed2Janet
    The artist/author has a blog called "Indexed" here, and a book here.

    By the way, the Court threw out fine against CBS for airing the wardrobe malfunction. (DMN)

    Let's just say she captured a few eyeballs; in most replayed moment in Tivo history. (CNet)