Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Phi on Fibonacci and Markets

    FIBONACCI SPIRAL drawing
    As noted, 6/18 is "Phi Day" for Fibonacci aficionados. 

    So, here is a link to a description of the sequence on Prechter's Elliott Wave website.

    And here is a follow-up article.

  • Online Meeting Schedulers

    6-12-2008 Meeting Wizard Example 600p
    Have you ever tried to schedule a meeting with one or more people, only to play "dueling calendars"? 

    Even one-on-one lunches can be tough without shared calendars.  Getting groups together is considerably more challenging.

    Most people understand the hassles of playing telephone tag, and email can be the same. To organize a meeting or event, it might seem that it's easy to simply send an email message. But more often than not, you need to know when people are available. For example, if you're inviting six people, you need to wait for six separate responses, manually collate them, and hope you've got a match, then confirm with all the details. If you don't get a match, you have to start all over again. Moreover, there's just too much room for confusion and error in this process. 

    Well, I just found a few tools that help solve these problems.

    MeetingWizard sends the invitations and collates all information and all responses in one place. Another advantage is that it organizes and standardizes the event information so that important details aren't missed, and users become familiar with a standard request-response interface. This makes scheduling go much more smoothly.

    Another tool I found is called "Presdo" and excels at understanding natural language phrases,like: next Wednesday or two weeks from today.

    6-12-2008 Presdo Example 600p
    I also liked Presdo's user interface, which includes the ability to search for locations and include map links in the invitation.  Here is an example.

    6-12-2008 Presdo Example 2 600p

    Two others worth checking-out include Tungle and TimeBridge.

    So, let me know what you think.

  • Online Meeting Schedulers

    6-12-2008 Meeting Wizard Example 600p
    Have you ever tried to schedule a meeting with one or more people, only to play "dueling calendars"? 

    Even one-on-one lunches can be tough without shared calendars.  Getting groups together is considerably more challenging.

    Most people understand the hassles of playing telephone tag, and email can be the same. To organize a meeting or event, it might seem that it's easy to simply send an email message. But more often than not, you need to know when people are available. For example, if you're inviting six people, you need to wait for six separate responses, manually collate them, and hope you've got a match, then confirm with all the details. If you don't get a match, you have to start all over again. Moreover, there's just too much room for confusion and error in this process. 

    Well, I just found a few tools that help solve these problems.

    MeetingWizard sends the invitations and collates all information and all responses in one place. Another advantage is that it organizes and standardizes the event information so that important details aren't missed, and users become familiar with a standard request-response interface. This makes scheduling go much more smoothly.

    Another tool I found is called "Presdo" and excels at understanding natural language phrases,like: next Wednesday or two weeks from today.

    6-12-2008 Presdo Example 600p
    I also liked Presdo's user interface, which includes the ability to search for locations and include map links in the invitation.  Here is an example.

    6-12-2008 Presdo Example 2 600p

    Two others worth checking-out include Tungle and TimeBridge.

    So, let me know what you think.

  • Cell Phone Popcorn Popper

    Up till now, I've kept my cell phone in my front pants pocket.  After watching these videos I'm worried about fried eggs.  Pretty cool … or hot … depending on the perspective.

    Here is the direct link.

    Just in case one wasn't enough.

    Here is the direct link.

    So, what does Snopes say?

  • Cell Phone Popcorn Popper

    Up till now, I've kept my cell phone in my front pants pocket.  After watching these videos I'm worried about fried eggs.  Pretty cool … or hot … depending on the perspective.

    Here is the direct link.

    Just in case one wasn't enough.

    Here is the direct link.

    So, what does Snopes say?

  • “It’s About Time” — Or, Isn’t it?

    There is a difference between working on a problem and focusing on a solution.  Thus, trying to improve performance is different than focusing on limiting losses. 

    Einstein said: "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them."

    It got me thinking. Most trading charts are time-based (meaning that price change is measured against time).  But maybe looking at price change in other ways would provide a different perspective.

     
    There are several interesting techniques gaining favor among technical traders.  These include measuring price change based on a certain volume traded or a constant range of directional movement.  Here is a link to a brief article about this in StockCharts.com.
     
    In some respects, these are "smoothing" techniques.  Nonetheless, they present a different picture of the market, and are something worth investigating.
     
    Here is how the S&P 500 Index looks like in one of these charts.
     
    080613 SPX Renko Chart

  • “It’s About Time” — Or, Isn’t it?

    There is a difference between working on a problem and focusing on a solution.  Thus, trying to improve performance is different than focusing on limiting losses. 

    Einstein said: "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them."

    It got me thinking. Most trading charts are time-based (meaning that price change is measured against time).  But maybe looking at price change in other ways would provide a different perspective.

     
    There are several interesting techniques gaining favor among technical traders.  These include measuring price change based on a certain volume traded or a constant range of directional movement.  Here is a link to a brief article about this in StockCharts.com.
     
    In some respects, these are "smoothing" techniques.  Nonetheless, they present a different picture of the market, and are something worth investigating.
     
    Here is how the S&P 500 Index looks like in one of these charts.
     
    080613 SPX Renko Chart

  • Market Commentary from June 13th, 2008

    Wall Street is expecting another volatile week.  In addition to our regular complement of oil price spikes, Dollar worries, inflation fears and economic reports on home building and wholesales prices … this week, the biggest news might be the quarterly earnings reports from Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Lehman Brothers (LEH).

    Currently, just 33% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving averages.  Much of this weakness has come from the Financial sector.  Only 17% of Financials are above their 50-day moving averages.  To see how ugly that sector has been, take a look at the charts of the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) and the Banking Index ($BKX).  Both are back at, or near, their lows. 

    But, next week also has Phi Day.  What?  Your friendly Fibonacci traders may note that June 18 is 6-18 (and everyone knows how important .618 is in trading).  If not, then you haven't spent time at Prechter's site.  Even if you don't believe it, enough traders watch the 61.8% retracement level, it is worth monitoring.  For example, check out the current chart on the Dow.

    080613 INDU Fib Level 600p
    Of course, not all US Equity Indices have fallen that far.  In contrast, note the relative strength of the S&P MidCap Index.

    080613 MID Relative Strength 600p

    Here are some of the things that caught my eye this week:

  • Market Commentary from June 13th, 2008

    Wall Street is expecting another volatile week.  In addition to our regular complement of oil price spikes, Dollar worries, inflation fears and economic reports on home building and wholesales prices … this week, the biggest news might be the quarterly earnings reports from Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Lehman Brothers (LEH).

    Currently, just 33% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving averages.  Much of this weakness has come from the Financial sector.  Only 17% of Financials are above their 50-day moving averages.  To see how ugly that sector has been, take a look at the charts of the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) and the Banking Index ($BKX).  Both are back at, or near, their lows. 

    But, next week also has Phi Day.  What?  Your friendly Fibonacci traders may note that June 18 is 6-18 (and everyone knows how important .618 is in trading).  If not, then you haven't spent time at Prechter's site.  Even if you don't believe it, enough traders watch the 61.8% retracement level, it is worth monitoring.  For example, check out the current chart on the Dow.

    080613 INDU Fib Level 600p
    Of course, not all US Equity Indices have fallen that far.  In contrast, note the relative strength of the S&P MidCap Index.

    080613 MID Relative Strength 600p

    Here are some of the things that caught my eye this week:

  • A New Chart Pattern

    I loved Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness".  And everyone is talking about his recent book "The Black Swan".

    With tongue-in-cheek, the next chart shows a very rare Black Swan formation – note both feet and neck are
    complete and the rare vampire tooth variation is in place.  This is very
    bad. Very, very bad.

    Blackswanchart joke

    from Elite Trader.