Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Capitalogix Commentary 04/12/09

    The stock market often recovers six months before the economy does; but I
    don't really believe we are six months away from our economy being
    fixed.  So, I still classify this as a bear market rally.

    It is a big one though. The markets have come quite far off their recent bottom. The U.S.
    Markets moved higher for the fifth week in a row. Yet, it was just the
    sixth positive week for those indices in 2009.

    The S&P 500 is currently trading more than 8.5% above its 50-day moving average, which is its most overbought reading since May 2001.

    This rally has been a welcome respite from a seemingly unrelenting downtrend. Historically, I can't find too much precedent for the continuation of a move like this on a global basis. So a correction could soon be expected, or even welcomed.

    Normally a market turning-point is tested within a number of weeks. How the market behaves at that time is important. A light-volume decline to or towards the old lows … and then a heavy-volume start to a new rally would be ideal.

    View From the Trenches.

    I was talking to a friend of mine who is a partner in the bankruptcy section of a law firm. His market outlook is bearish because he's never seen his section's work pipeline this full before. There are a lot of bankruptcies in process, and a lot of companies talking to him to investigate whether it's the right option for them to pursue in the future. From his perspective, we're not done yet.  I'm not putting too much meaning into this.  Just passing on the data point.

    The Pyramid of Misery.

    The chart below shows a funny and current version of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.

    090410 Pyramid of Misery

    That graphic came from Portfolio Magazine, which has had a number of good articles recently.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Is YouTube Doomed? Half a Billion Dollar loss is a tough pill to swallow. (BusinessInsider)
    • Salary Cuts Instead of Lay-Offs: Ugly, But It Could Be Worse. (WSJ)
    • Loss Aversion: Traders take riskier decisions to avoid losing money. (Economist)
    • Teaching Survival Skills to a Technology Start-Up. (NYTimes)
    • New Economy Means New Entrepreneurs. (Street.com)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • You Focus On What You Measure

    090410 One Day at a Time AttackedI have the privilege of knowing many fine entrepreneurs. Some of them are doing surprisingly well. Others are licking their wounds and struggling with the loss of confidence in their business, their business model, or even themselves.

     On some level, recent events could represent the biggest failure that some of these people ever have in their lives.

    There are several ways to take that. Here's one to think about.

    What would you do if you knew your worst failure was behind you and everything from this point forward was a move upwards or at least provides an opportunity to make progress?

    I Sense A Lot of Pain.

    If you look at
    things based on cycles or seasons, then this probably has been winter.  Still, periods like this can teach you a lot about yourself.

    I got a phone call this week from a friend who asked where I've been hiding. I was surprised because I hadn't thought about it like that.  Yet, it didn't take much reflection to see that many people I know, including me, have been hiding in one way or another.

    For example, one of my closest friends hasn't been returning phone calls. That is one of his early warning signs that tells me he is having a tough time. And several unquestionably smart, resourceful, and successful businessmen have broken down into tears recently while talking to me about the circumstances in which they find themselves.  I get it; there is a lot of pain out there right now.

    It affects me too.  A business group that I've participated in for almost 10 years is going on its annual retreat this week. It's designed to be fun and a vehicle to reconnect with ourselves and each other. It's a time for reflection, sharing and hopefully for new insight. Yet, there's a part of me that doesn't want to go.

    If I'm honest with myself, it is probably because I don't want to re-examine what happened during the past year.  In other words, I don't want to reflect on what went wrong, again, because I've done that enough already.

    But going to the retreat doesn't have to be about that at all. In fact, instead of it being an unpleasant exercise focusing on what I don't want … it easily can be when I focus on what I do want, and how I'm going to get there in a way that's best for everyone involved. The only difference in those two retreats is what I make it mean – and of course what happens because of that.

    You Focus on What You Measure.

    So, it occurs to me that I might be measuring the wrong things in several areas. Just because I used to keep score one way, doesn't mean that it's a helpful measure for me now.

    Measurement is supposed to give you a sense of your momentum towards your target. Done right, it helps you feel more confident and in-control. Sure it tells you what to do less of … more importantly, though, it highlights what we can and should do more of.

    Cleansing Or Clogging?

    I remember being in a Tony Robbins seminar about health and hearing a simple rule that made sense to me about eating. He said: before you put something in your mouth think about whether it's cleansing or clogging. That made sense to me, and it was helpful. The same could hold true for deciding which things to focus on in business or life. Will focusing on this create momentum and energy, or not? 

    On some level pain is inevitable.  Yet, for the most part, suffering is optional.

    Choose what makes you strong and more likely to take actions that make progress.

  • You Focus On What You Measure

    090410 One Day at a Time AttackedI have the privilege of knowing many fine entrepreneurs. Some of them are doing surprisingly well. Others are licking their wounds and struggling with the loss of confidence in their business, their business model, or even themselves.

     On some level, recent events could represent the biggest failure that some of these people ever have in their lives.

    There are several ways to take that. Here's one to think about.

    What would you do if you knew your worst failure was behind you and everything from this point forward was a move upwards or at least provides an opportunity to make progress?

    I Sense A Lot of Pain.

    If you look at
    things based on cycles or seasons, then this probably has been winter.  Still, periods like this can teach you a lot about yourself.

    I got a phone call this week from a friend who asked where I've been hiding. I was surprised because I hadn't thought about it like that.  Yet, it didn't take much reflection to see that many people I know, including me, have been hiding in one way or another.

    For example, one of my closest friends hasn't been returning phone calls. That is one of his early warning signs that tells me he is having a tough time. And several unquestionably smart, resourceful, and successful businessmen have broken down into tears recently while talking to me about the circumstances in which they find themselves.  I get it; there is a lot of pain out there right now.

    It affects me too.  A business group that I've participated in for almost 10 years is going on its annual retreat this week. It's designed to be fun and a vehicle to reconnect with ourselves and each other. It's a time for reflection, sharing and hopefully for new insight. Yet, there's a part of me that doesn't want to go.

    If I'm honest with myself, it is probably because I don't want to re-examine what happened during the past year.  In other words, I don't want to reflect on what went wrong, again, because I've done that enough already.

    But going to the retreat doesn't have to be about that at all. In fact, instead of it being an unpleasant exercise focusing on what I don't want … it easily can be when I focus on what I do want, and how I'm going to get there in a way that's best for everyone involved. The only difference in those two retreats is what I make it mean – and of course what happens because of that.

    You Focus on What You Measure.

    So, it occurs to me that I might be measuring the wrong things in several areas. Just because I used to keep score one way, doesn't mean that it's a helpful measure for me now.

    Measurement is supposed to give you a sense of your momentum towards your target. Done right, it helps you feel more confident and in-control. Sure it tells you what to do less of … more importantly, though, it highlights what we can and should do more of.

    Cleansing Or Clogging?

    I remember being in a Tony Robbins seminar about health and hearing a simple rule that made sense to me about eating. He said: before you put something in your mouth think about whether it's cleansing or clogging. That made sense to me, and it was helpful. The same could hold true for deciding which things to focus on in business or life. Will focusing on this create momentum and energy, or not? 

    On some level pain is inevitable.  Yet, for the most part, suffering is optional.

    Choose what makes you strong and more likely to take actions that make progress.

  • It Is Only A Problem Until You Know The Solution

    090410 Rubik's Cube

    Some challenges seem tough to solve … until you know the solution.

    When I was younger, I spent hours twisting and turning a Rubik's Cube.  It seemed random or even impossible until I found the solution. 

    Then it got a lot more fun.

    Want to solve it yourself?

    Here is the direct link to the video.

  • It Is Only A Problem Until You Know The Solution

    090410 Rubik's Cube

    Some challenges seem tough to solve … until you know the solution.

    When I was younger, I spent hours twisting and turning a Rubik's Cube.  It seemed random or even impossible until I found the solution. 

    Then it got a lot more fun.

    Want to solve it yourself?

    Here is the direct link to the video.

  • Capitalogix Commentary 04/05/09

    The U.S. Markets moved higher for the fourth week in a row. This is just the fifth positive week for these indices in 2009.

    The public notices!  I had a guy approach me at the gym to ask if I thought he should start buying again.  He said he knew it could go back down, some, but isn't that "dollar-cost-averaging"?  And I got an e-mail from a friend asking me to recommend a trading course for his wife to take because she is starting to day-trade.  Those things whisper that sentiment is changing.  Hope the market does too.

    Rally Symmetry.

    While we are still in a downtrend on the longer timeframes, the size of the short-term rally is impressive.  This chart shows that the S&P 500 Index has rallied 27% off its March lows.

    090403 Rally Symmetry

    This is surprisingly similar to the size of the bear rally swings we saw in October and November.

    Is Rising On Bad News a Good Sign?

    The latest report on job losses showed that the American economy shed another 663,000 jobs in March and that unemployment rose to 8.5 percent. 

    While the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell on the news, it quickly shrugged-off the data, and closed back above 8,000 for the first time since early February.

    Bad news everywhere, and the Markets continued higher.  I thought it was an April Fool's joke.  It still may turn out that way?  In my book, though, that is a bullish sign.

    Another Bullish Sign, Markets Are Above Their 50-Day Moving Averages.

    For me, most notable is that our major indices are now above their 50-day moving averages for the first time in a very long time.  Even better, tech is leading the way. So until the 50-day is broken back to the downside, this market deserves some respect.

    Yes, shorter term, markets are overbought … but they have been overbought for more than a week. I can't believe I'm saying this … remember that overbought can also be a sign of strength.

    Recession Length.

    While the stock market has rallied nicely since bottoming on March 9th, the economy continues to struggle. For some perspective on the current economic recession, the chart below illustrates the duration of all US recessions since 1900.

    The five longest recessions all began prior to 1930. The length of the current recession (now entering its 16th month) is above average, and equal to the longest recessions (1973 & 1981) since the Great Depression.

    090403 Recession Length

    Since it is unlikely that the Recession is over, the question is how much longer till it ends?

    In addition, something I'm paying more attention to is the amount of talk I'm hearing about the inevitable devaluation of the dollar.  Let me know what you think about it.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • How Can Small Investors Get In on the Bailout? (NYTimes)
    • A Few Drops Don't Make the Glass Half Full. (Barrons)
    • Have We Nationalized Banks in response to the current economic crisis? (Duke)
    • Credit bubble looms as investors rush to credit, distressed debt and CTA's. (Reuters)
    • G-20 Expands IMF Lending Powers to $1 Trillion to reignite world growth. (WSJ)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Capitalogix Commentary 04/05/09

    The U.S. Markets moved higher for the fourth week in a row. This is just the fifth positive week for these indices in 2009.

    The public notices!  I had a guy approach me at the gym to ask if I thought he should start buying again.  He said he knew it could go back down, some, but isn't that "dollar-cost-averaging"?  And I got an e-mail from a friend asking me to recommend a trading course for his wife to take because she is starting to day-trade.  Those things whisper that sentiment is changing.  Hope the market does too.

    Rally Symmetry.

    While we are still in a downtrend on the longer timeframes, the size of the short-term rally is impressive.  This chart shows that the S&P 500 Index has rallied 27% off its March lows.

    090403 Rally Symmetry

    This is surprisingly similar to the size of the bear rally swings we saw in October and November.

    Is Rising On Bad News a Good Sign?

    The latest report on job losses showed that the American economy shed another 663,000 jobs in March and that unemployment rose to 8.5 percent. 

    While the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell on the news, it quickly shrugged-off the data, and closed back above 8,000 for the first time since early February.

    Bad news everywhere, and the Markets continued higher.  I thought it was an April Fool's joke.  It still may turn out that way?  In my book, though, that is a bullish sign.

    Another Bullish Sign, Markets Are Above Their 50-Day Moving Averages.

    For me, most notable is that our major indices are now above their 50-day moving averages for the first time in a very long time.  Even better, tech is leading the way. So until the 50-day is broken back to the downside, this market deserves some respect.

    Yes, shorter term, markets are overbought … but they have been overbought for more than a week. I can't believe I'm saying this … remember that overbought can also be a sign of strength.

    Recession Length.

    While the stock market has rallied nicely since bottoming on March 9th, the economy continues to struggle. For some perspective on the current economic recession, the chart below illustrates the duration of all US recessions since 1900.

    The five longest recessions all began prior to 1930. The length of the current recession (now entering its 16th month) is above average, and equal to the longest recessions (1973 & 1981) since the Great Depression.

    090403 Recession Length

    Since it is unlikely that the Recession is over, the question is how much longer till it ends?

    In addition, something I'm paying more attention to is the amount of talk I'm hearing about the inevitable devaluation of the dollar.  Let me know what you think about it.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • How Can Small Investors Get In on the Bailout? (NYTimes)
    • A Few Drops Don't Make the Glass Half Full. (Barrons)
    • Have We Nationalized Banks in response to the current economic crisis? (Duke)
    • Credit bubble looms as investors rush to credit, distressed debt and CTA's. (Reuters)
    • G-20 Expands IMF Lending Powers to $1 Trillion to reignite world growth. (WSJ)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • A Breath of Fresh Air

    Do gadgets that help you focus on conscious breathing work?  I found three that worked for me: Resperate, Helicor's StressEraser, and Heart Math's emWave.

    My biggest complaint is that once I learned the relaxation techniques each of these devices teach,  I didn't need the device to get the results.  That also is a positive, isn't it?

    I think, feel, and communicate better when I'm calm.  Learning to access that state at will is an important skill … in business and personal life. 

    So, with that in mind, here are my impressions and experience with each.

    090403 Resperate
    Resperate    .

    The Resperate unit is a little bigger than a portable CD-ROM player, with a built-in elastic strap that goes around your ribcage to monitor your breathing.  The concept behind this tool is very simple.  It relaxes you by helping you slow your breathing down. 

    Resperate starts by pacing your in-and-out breaths with higher and lower pitched sound cues.  Over time it moves these tones farther apart, leading you to breathe slower and more deeply.

    How did it work?  It helped me move easily from 6 to 10 breaths-per-minute, down to two or three breaths-per-minute.  This promotes much deeper breathing and relaxes the body and mind.  I find that I enjoy using this tool for about 10-minutes at a time; and I definitely feel relaxed after using it.  

    While Resperate provided the most relaxation, it is the one I use least.  Perhaps because it is a little bigger and requires the belt.  Not big hurdles; but apparently big enough.

    090403 StressEraser
    Helicor's StressEraser    . 

    The StressEraser is a portable biofeedback device, smaller than a deck of cards.  On the top, there is a hinged slot to put your finger.  The finger reader measures your pulse and galvanic skin response. There is also an LED screen on this device that helps you pace your breathing, and shows your level of stress or relaxation.

    Without focusing, the line is erratic and jagged.

    However, with only a little bit of training, it's easy to create a very smooth sign wave that indicates a steady breathing and a healthy heart rate pattern.

    With this tool, I get the best (most relaxing) results with an
    in-breath of about five seconds and an out-breath of about the same length. I like doing this for five minutes or so; it is a nice break in the middle of the day, before an important phone call, or a decision-making session. 

    I
    find that it
    helps me focus. Of the three tools, this is the one I find myself using most often.  This might be because I like the graph and how it gives me instantaneous feedback about my breathing and focus.

    090403 emWave
    HeartMath's emWave    .

    This is the smallest of the tools.  The emWave relies on either a thumb sensor or, my preference, a clip that attaches to your earlobe. The technique is very similar to what you learn with the StressEraser. It involves steady breathing and a focus on reducing heart beat variability.  It has four levels of challenge.

    It sounds strange, and I don't claim to understand the science behind it, however focusing your attention on your heart while doing the breathing exercise seems to make a difference.  Somehow, when you focus your attention on your heart, that is when the machine changes color to indicate that there is "coherence". And, in my experience, this is the most relaxing part of the exercise. More coherence equals less stress.

    I tend to use this tool less than five minutes at a time to feel calm and refreshed.  It was also the easiest for me to have success with (in this case, to get the "green light" to come on).  So, the emWave is the smallest, easiest and quickest of the three … and it works.  I'm going to use this more often.

    So why did I use one that is more challenging?  Habit, or perhaps that defines part of the reason I need to relax?

  • A Breath of Fresh Air

    Do gadgets that help you focus on conscious breathing work?  I found three that worked for me: Resperate, Helicor's StressEraser, and Heart Math's emWave.

    My biggest complaint is that once I learned the relaxation techniques each of these devices teach,  I didn't need the device to get the results.  That also is a positive, isn't it?

    I think, feel, and communicate better when I'm calm.  Learning to access that state at will is an important skill … in business and personal life. 

    So, with that in mind, here are my impressions and experience with each.

    090403 Resperate
    Resperate    .

    The Resperate unit is a little bigger than a portable CD-ROM player, with a built-in elastic strap that goes around your ribcage to monitor your breathing.  The concept behind this tool is very simple.  It relaxes you by helping you slow your breathing down. 

    Resperate starts by pacing your in-and-out breaths with higher and lower pitched sound cues.  Over time it moves these tones farther apart, leading you to breathe slower and more deeply.

    How did it work?  It helped me move easily from 6 to 10 breaths-per-minute, down to two or three breaths-per-minute.  This promotes much deeper breathing and relaxes the body and mind.  I find that I enjoy using this tool for about 10-minutes at a time; and I definitely feel relaxed after using it.  

    While Resperate provided the most relaxation, it is the one I use least.  Perhaps because it is a little bigger and requires the belt.  Not big hurdles; but apparently big enough.

    090403 StressEraser
    Helicor's StressEraser    . 

    The StressEraser is a portable biofeedback device, smaller than a deck of cards.  On the top, there is a hinged slot to put your finger.  The finger reader measures your pulse and galvanic skin response. There is also an LED screen on this device that helps you pace your breathing, and shows your level of stress or relaxation.

    Without focusing, the line is erratic and jagged.

    However, with only a little bit of training, it's easy to create a very smooth sign wave that indicates a steady breathing and a healthy heart rate pattern.

    With this tool, I get the best (most relaxing) results with an
    in-breath of about five seconds and an out-breath of about the same length. I like doing this for five minutes or so; it is a nice break in the middle of the day, before an important phone call, or a decision-making session. 

    I
    find that it
    helps me focus. Of the three tools, this is the one I find myself using most often.  This might be because I like the graph and how it gives me instantaneous feedback about my breathing and focus.

    090403 emWave
    HeartMath's emWave    .

    This is the smallest of the tools.  The emWave relies on either a thumb sensor or, my preference, a clip that attaches to your earlobe. The technique is very similar to what you learn with the StressEraser. It involves steady breathing and a focus on reducing heart beat variability.  It has four levels of challenge.

    It sounds strange, and I don't claim to understand the science behind it, however focusing your attention on your heart while doing the breathing exercise seems to make a difference.  Somehow, when you focus your attention on your heart, that is when the machine changes color to indicate that there is "coherence". And, in my experience, this is the most relaxing part of the exercise. More coherence equals less stress.

    I tend to use this tool less than five minutes at a time to feel calm and refreshed.  It was also the easiest for me to have success with (in this case, to get the "green light" to come on).  So, the emWave is the smallest, easiest and quickest of the three … and it works.  I'm going to use this more often.

    So why did I use one that is more challenging?  Habit, or perhaps that defines part of the reason I need to relax?

  • How To Type More Accurately and Much Faster With Asutype

    090327 Asutype
    I'm surprised by how much of my typing is now done outside of
    traditional e-mail or business software (like Microsoft Word). Instead,
    my typing is done in web-based applications like my blog, Facebook, or
    Twitter. That's where a program like Asutype really shines.

    I have been using a very effective spell-checking and text expansion program for several years now. It works so well that I forget it's there, even though it automatically fixes most of my typing errors and makes it easy for me to enter repetitive phrases or pieces of information.  The bottom-line is that it helps me type more accurately and much faster.

    There are three basic ways to use the software.

    1. Correct Mistakes Interactively. The first is an interactive spell checker that works as you type (hence the name "Asutype"). When you type something that isn't in its dictionaries, it pops up a correction box with several of the most likely replacement candidates. This provides a quick and easy way to fix your spelling without having to retype anything.
      090327 Asutype Correction
    2. Correct Repetitive Mistakes Automatically. The software also keeps track of the mistakes you make as well as the corrections that you apply and allows you to create a list of automatic entries. From time-to-time I'll review the list of corrections and choose to add them to my permanent list. When I do that, then next time I mistype that word or phrase, the software automatically fixes it (without even asking). This means I type much quicker because most of my typing mistakes are repetitive and that means I make them consistently). I'm actually surprised by how many different ways I could misspell certain words. It's not so much that I don't know how to spell them, it's that my fingers don't do the right thing when I'm trying to type quickly or get distracted.
      090327 Asutype Correction List

    3. Automate Repetitive Typing.  The software also has some very powerful text expansion capabilities. I think of them almost as abbreviations or shortcuts. There are certain words or phrases that I type often (examples include: Capitalogix, our web address, or phrase like "please contact me if you have questions or comments".). Another example might be to use the abbreviation "VTY", which could expand to "very truly yours" …  and then your signature block.

    You never have a second chance to make a first impression, so I'm glad that Asutype helps me seem like a good speller. Here are the links for you to find out more information or to download a trial copy yourself. I don't have anything to do with the company other than I'm a happy user. I've had my license for years, and I can vouch for their service, support, and the good experience that I've had with their tool. I hope you like it too.