Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff
Here is a brief video that reminds me that the difference between men and boys is often just the price of their toys.
It's fun to watch these kids and the temptation of one marshmallow in the hand vs two marshmallows in the bush. To eat, or not to eat? … That is the question.
Oh, The Temptation from Steve V on Vimeo.
This week I'm listing the iPhone business and productivity apps that I find worth using.
Click here to explore last week's list of the fun stuff.
At first I wanted to create a list of the coolest iPhone apps. However, cool doesn't necessarily mean useful. Instead, this is a list of the applications that I use most. I limited myself to the top two applications per category.
For more information about these applications, click the links to go to the developer's site. Even if you don't have an iPhone, check-out the links to see what is
available. I am amazed at how much of my computing and basic research
are now done on my phone (as opposed to laptop or desktop computers).
Stock Market Info
Business News
General News
Reference
To-Do Lists
Calculators
Conversions
Ideas
Travel
That's it for now. Let me know if I forgot your favorite or you found something worth sharing.
This week I'm listing the iPhone business and productivity apps that I find worth using.
Click here to explore last week's list of the fun stuff.
At first I wanted to create a list of the coolest iPhone apps. However, cool doesn't necessarily mean useful. Instead, this is a list of the applications that I use most. I limited myself to the top two applications per category.
For more information about these applications, click the links to go to the developer's site. Even if you don't have an iPhone, check-out the links to see what is
available. I am amazed at how much of my computing and basic research
are now done on my phone (as opposed to laptop or desktop computers).
Stock Market Info
Business News
General News
Reference
To-Do Lists
Calculators
Conversions
Ideas
Travel
That's it for now. Let me know if I forgot your favorite or you found something worth sharing.
Another week of strong performance by the markets leaves me searching for clues and signs of weakness. It's not that I don't like how the markets are reacting; because this has been a nice traders market. However, trading is about risk management and doing your best to recognize fear or greed.
So, one of the indicators I use to probe beneath the surface of the market is a measure of what the largest traders, Mutual Funds, are doing. There is a phrase that explains this well. Elephants leave tracks.
As you can see, while the markets continue to make new highs, Long-term mutual fund investors have reversed this month; selling shares, rather than dumping money in. Based on the first two weeks of the month, September's outflows will be bigger than the inflows seen in the last three months combined.
It's not surprising that commercial traders are far less bullish than retail investors at this point of the rally. This Dilbert cartoon sums up the way traders have been playing: "Forage during daylight and Hide at Night."
More telling, perhaps, is that company insiders have been doing their best to sell recently. For example, in August, each dollar of insider buying was dramatically overshadowed by $30 of insider selling. Here is a chart from Insidercow showing how bearish insiders are right now.
Another indicator of indecision shown by the Japanese candlestick pattern called a Doji. It forms when the market opens and closes at approximately the same price, despite having gone higher and lower throughout the day. It indicates a fundamental disagreement between buyers and sellers, and as you can see by the chart below, often marks a reversal point. In the daily chart of the NASDAQ, below, I marked Doji reversals.
None of this means that the market is going to make new lows. Instead, they're just clues. In my experience though, it's better to prepare for a storm before it hits. If it passes without incident, the planning and preparation are probably still worthwhile.
If remember the every trade is the result of a disagreement, someone is betting that the price will go up, while someone else is betting that prices going down. Being able to see a trade from both perspectives is a good skill to develop. If you're bullish right now, use the opportunity to understand what a short seller might be seeing at this point in time. And if you're convinced the market is going down, then remember the adage don't fight the Fed and how important sentiment is. Look for areas of breakout to the upside.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
Another week of strong performance by the markets leaves me searching for clues and signs of weakness. It's not that I don't like how the markets are reacting; because this has been a nice traders market. However, trading is about risk management and doing your best to recognize fear or greed.
So, one of the indicators I use to probe beneath the surface of the market is a measure of what the largest traders, Mutual Funds, are doing. There is a phrase that explains this well. Elephants leave tracks.
As you can see, while the markets continue to make new highs, Long-term mutual fund investors have reversed this month; selling shares, rather than dumping money in. Based on the first two weeks of the month, September's outflows will be bigger than the inflows seen in the last three months combined.
It's not surprising that commercial traders are far less bullish than retail investors at this point of the rally. This Dilbert cartoon sums up the way traders have been playing: "Forage during daylight and Hide at Night."
More telling, perhaps, is that company insiders have been doing their best to sell recently. For example, in August, each dollar of insider buying was dramatically overshadowed by $30 of insider selling. Here is a chart from Insidercow showing how bearish insiders are right now.
Another indicator of indecision shown by the Japanese candlestick pattern called a Doji. It forms when the market opens and closes at approximately the same price, despite having gone higher and lower throughout the day. It indicates a fundamental disagreement between buyers and sellers, and as you can see by the chart below, often marks a reversal point. In the daily chart of the NASDAQ, below, I marked Doji reversals.
None of this means that the market is going to make new lows. Instead, they're just clues. In my experience though, it's better to prepare for a storm before it hits. If it passes without incident, the planning and preparation are probably still worthwhile.
If remember the every trade is the result of a disagreement, someone is betting that the price will go up, while someone else is betting that prices going down. Being able to see a trade from both perspectives is a good skill to develop. If you're bullish right now, use the opportunity to understand what a short seller might be seeing at this point in time. And if you're convinced the market is going down, then remember the adage don't fight the Fed and how important sentiment is. Look for areas of breakout to the upside.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
Let's Get Ready to Rumble.
Football season came just in time. The economy, health-care, and wars were starting to harsh my mellow.
Watching football is like a national meditation technique; it helps
quiet the noise and is a great distraction from the daily grind.
The Markets seem to be doing a good job of avoiding what's going on around them. Price going up despite seemingly bad news is bullish. Sometimes it seems hard to remember that.
Where Do We Stand on a Longer-Term Chart of the Markets?
This chart of the S&P 500 Index goes
back to 2002. The thick horizontal red line marks the naturally occurring support and resistance line
going back to 2003 and 2004. Just above
that is the 50% retracement level of the recent decline. So, while price has rallied nicely for more than five months off the recent lows, overhead resistance may soon come into play. Click the chart to see a bigger version.
The chart above also shows that Volume has
been a little light; but some of that is seasonal. I expect volume to
pick-up soon. The question, of course, is whether prices will trade
higher or lower when that happens.
Average Daily Change Plummets.
Bespoke reminds that one of the most remarkable characteristics of last year's market crash was its daily volatility. At its peak, the 50-Day Average Absolute Daily Change of the S&P 500 surpassed 4%. That means that the Market gained or lost 4% to 5% of its total value on a daily basis for two months.
In contrast, the 50-Day Average Absolute Daily Change of the S&P 500 is now under 1%. This is the lowest level since July of last year. Markets fall much faster than they rise, so it's no surprise that this number has gone down significantly as the S&P rallied off of its lows.
Shorter-Term, The Market Looks Strong.
The next chart overlays the NASDAQ's Net New Highs on top of the index
itself. This measure counts the number of NASDAQ Components making new
52-week highs, and subtracts the number of NASDAQ components
making new 52-week lows . So, we get more Net New Highs when the markets
are doing better. As it stands, A lot of NASDAQ Components are making highs for the year.
Yet, there are slightly less Net New Highs than we saw in mid-July. So,
while this is a little picky, it does constitute a negative
divergence. Consequently, I'm watching for a drop-off in this measure
as a potential early warning indicator of impending market weakness.
It's been easier to make money on the long side for a long time. I sense a lot of the smart money is daytrading long exposure. In other words, they're happy to trade long, but they're not as happy to take that risk home overnight.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
Let's Get Ready to Rumble.
Football season came just in time. The economy, health-care, and wars were starting to harsh my mellow.
Watching football is like a national meditation technique; it helps
quiet the noise and is a great distraction from the daily grind.
The Markets seem to be doing a good job of avoiding what's going on around them. Price going up despite seemingly bad news is bullish. Sometimes it seems hard to remember that.
Where Do We Stand on a Longer-Term Chart of the Markets?
This chart of the S&P 500 Index goes
back to 2002. The thick horizontal red line marks the naturally occurring support and resistance line
going back to 2003 and 2004. Just above
that is the 50% retracement level of the recent decline. So, while price has rallied nicely for more than five months off the recent lows, overhead resistance may soon come into play. Click the chart to see a bigger version.
The chart above also shows that Volume has
been a little light; but some of that is seasonal. I expect volume to
pick-up soon. The question, of course, is whether prices will trade
higher or lower when that happens.
Average Daily Change Plummets.
Bespoke reminds that one of the most remarkable characteristics of last year's market crash was its daily volatility. At its peak, the 50-Day Average Absolute Daily Change of the S&P 500 surpassed 4%. That means that the Market gained or lost 4% to 5% of its total value on a daily basis for two months.
In contrast, the 50-Day Average Absolute Daily Change of the S&P 500 is now under 1%. This is the lowest level since July of last year. Markets fall much faster than they rise, so it's no surprise that this number has gone down significantly as the S&P rallied off of its lows.
Shorter-Term, The Market Looks Strong.
The next chart overlays the NASDAQ's Net New Highs on top of the index
itself. This measure counts the number of NASDAQ Components making new
52-week highs, and subtracts the number of NASDAQ components
making new 52-week lows . So, we get more Net New Highs when the markets
are doing better. As it stands, A lot of NASDAQ Components are making highs for the year.
Yet, there are slightly less Net New Highs than we saw in mid-July. So,
while this is a little picky, it does constitute a negative
divergence. Consequently, I'm watching for a drop-off in this measure
as a potential early warning indicator of impending market weakness.
It's been easier to make money on the long side for a long time. I sense a lot of the smart money is daytrading long exposure. In other words, they're happy to trade long, but they're not as happy to take that risk home overnight.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
I wanted to create a list of the coolest iPhone apps. However, cool doesn't necessarily mean useful. Instead, this is a list of the applications that I use most.
This week I'm listing the lighter and more fun iPhone apps. Here is the link to the list the business and productivity apps that I use most.
I limited myself to the top two applications per category. Hope you find some cool stuff in here.
Social Media
Food & Fun Finders
Games: Strategy
Games: Puzzle
Games: Pattern Matching
Games: Text
Music
Photo Fun
Health & Fitness
Relaxation
Sports News
Shopping
Even if you don't have an iPhone, check-out the links to see what is available. I am amazed at how much of my computing and basic research are now done on a Smartphone.
That's it for now. Let me know if I forgot your favorite or you found something worth sharing.
I wanted to create a list of the coolest iPhone apps. However, cool doesn't necessarily mean useful. Instead, this is a list of the applications that I use most.
This week I'm listing the lighter and more fun iPhone apps. Here is the link to the list the business and productivity apps that I use most.
I limited myself to the top two applications per category. Hope you find some cool stuff in here.
Social Media
Food & Fun Finders
Games: Strategy
Games: Puzzle
Games: Pattern Matching
Games: Text
Music
Photo Fun
Health & Fitness
Relaxation
Sports News
Shopping
Even if you don't have an iPhone, check-out the links to see what is available. I am amazed at how much of my computing and basic research are now done on a Smartphone.
That's it for now. Let me know if I forgot your favorite or you found something worth sharing.
Listen to the clever word-play in this Louis Armstrong and Danny Kaye duet and you'll hear the seeds from which a bunch of modern music sprouted from …
If this doesn't make you feel better after you watch it, please contact me and I will send the fun police by your house!
(hat tip to Perro Grande)