Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Some Thoughts on the Budget and Government Spending

    This graphic highlights some of what is wrong with political discourse.

     

    110417 Everything Wrong With Politcs

    So, the government avoided a shut-down.  Is that a good or bad thing? 

    Understanding the Scope of the Budget Deficit.

    What were they really fighting about?

    Philip Greenspun puts the the budget deficit into easier-to-grasp context: just divide everything by 100,000,000.

    • We have a family that is spending $38,200 per year.
    • The family’s income is $21,700 per year.
    • The family adds $16,500 in credit card debt every year in order to pay its bills.
    • After a long and difficult debate among family members, keeping in mind that it was not going to be possible to borrow $16,500 every year forever, the parents and children agreed that a $380/year premium cable subscription could be terminated.
    • So now the family will have to borrow only $16,120 per year.

    If you are a visual thinker, here is different way to look at it.

    110417 The Budget Pie Chart Cartoon by Michael-Ramirez

    Government Shutdown Averted – Fiscal Crisis Assured!

    I saw this video and thought it made some interesting points .

     

     

    For a different perpective, you can watch the introduction video released by a new political movement called the Win+Win Revolution. 

    We do live in interesting times.
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  • A Business Book Based On The Story of Passover

    Passover is this week, so Jewish people are once again getting ready to teach the story of Exodus to their children.  This happens during the meal featured in DaVinci's Last Supper.

    110417-DaVinci_LastSupper
    Part of the tradition is to present the information in way tailored to the audience.  For example, the wise child, the wicked child, the simple child and the child unable to ask … each perceive the story and how it relates to them differently.

    Coincidently, I just read an interesting book, written by a friend of mine, that weaves the archetypical learners in the Passover Seder into a business fable about communication and persuasion.

    110417 ROAR The book talks about how you tailor your message to those four personality types.  For example, a business might look at creating different messages for wise, cynical,  simple and disinterested buyers.

    The book's title, "ROAR!", is an acronym for the persuasion model:

    • Recognize the type;
    • Observe from their perspective;
    • Acknowledge who they are;
    • Resolve their need.

    The book also provides a strong approach to bringing empathy and differentiation into your value proposition.  This is equally important in an elevator pitch or tough conversation with a stakeholder.

    It’s pretty good stuff and something worth thinking about.  You can check out a video and a couple free chapters here.

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  • A Business Book Based On The Story of Passover

    Passover is this week, so Jewish people are once again getting ready to teach the story of Exodus to their children.  This happens during the meal featured in DaVinci's Last Supper.

    110417-DaVinci_LastSupper
    Part of the tradition is to present the information in way tailored to the audience.  For example, the wise child, the wicked child, the simple child and the child unable to ask … each perceive the story and how it relates to them differently.

    Coincidently, I just read an interesting book, written by a friend of mine, that weaves the archetypical learners in the Passover Seder into a business fable about communication and persuasion.

    110417 ROAR The book talks about how you tailor your message to those four personality types.  For example, a business might look at creating different messages for wise, cynical,  simple and disinterested buyers.

    The book's title, "ROAR!", is an acronym for the persuasion model:

    • Recognize the type;
    • Observe from their perspective;
    • Acknowledge who they are;
    • Resolve their need.

    The book also provides a strong approach to bringing empathy and differentiation into your value proposition.  This is equally important in an elevator pitch or tough conversation with a stakeholder.

    It’s pretty good stuff and something worth thinking about.  You can check out a video and a couple free chapters here.

    Related articles
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  • Video Captures Obama’s Favorite Catch-Phrases

    ‘Make no mistake,’ Obama is a big fan of his own catchphrases.

    This video shows that there’s no mistaking it: “Make no mistake” is President Obama’s favorite catchphrase.
      

    Statistics gathered by the Global Language Monitor reveal that Obama has said it 2,924 times since he was sworn into office more than two years ago.

    Other signature Obama sayings include: "Win the future" (1,861 times),  “Here’s the deal” (1,450 times), and “Let me be clear,” (1,066 times). In a nod to the tough financial times he has faced, the president’s fifth most popular motto is “It will not be easy” (1,059 times).

     
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  • Video Captures Obama’s Favorite Catch-Phrases

    ‘Make no mistake,’ Obama is a big fan of his own catchphrases.

    This video shows that there’s no mistaking it: “Make no mistake” is President Obama’s favorite catchphrase.
      

    Statistics gathered by the Global Language Monitor reveal that Obama has said it 2,924 times since he was sworn into office more than two years ago.

    Other signature Obama sayings include: "Win the future" (1,861 times),  “Here’s the deal” (1,450 times), and “Let me be clear,” (1,066 times). In a nod to the tough financial times he has faced, the president’s fifth most popular motto is “It will not be easy” (1,059 times).

     
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  • Here a Few Links for Weekend Reading

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • ETFs to Top 2nd $ Trillion in 3 Years; it took 18 years to get the 1st. (STM)
    • Market Confidence, Tricks and Placebos. (PsyFiTec)
    • Is Apple On Target For Its First $100 Billion Revenue Year? (Forbes)
    • McDonald's to hire 50,000 workers, starting April 19th. (Money)
    • Data Guru Warns of Future 'Bots Hacking the Markets. (Barrons)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Are Cracks Starting to Show in the Rally’s Foundation?

    Newsweek had a great cover:  "Apocalypse Now". Think about it, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Nuclear Melt-Downs, Revolutions, Governments on the Verge of Shutting-Down …

    110410 Newsweek Apocalypse Now Cover

    And, yet, despite a cavalcade of horrors … the markets have held up well.

    Is This as Good as it Gets?

    Barron's notes:

    Having snagged its best first quarter since 1998, the U.S. stock market began April on a hopeful, if hesitant, note, encouraged by evidence that our economy is improving, but a little fearful that this may be as good as it gets.

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged briefly above its recent February peak to reach its highest level in nearly three years, effectively brushing aside recent concerns such as high oil prices, flailing European banks and disruptions in the wake of Japan's disaster that had so alarmed investors mere weeks earlier.

    Are Cracks Starting to Show in the Rally's Foundation?

    Bloomberg posted a chart showing the bull market move put in by the S&P 500 Index.  Note, however, the dwindling volume of shares traded, especially since prices rebounded off lows earlier this year.

     

    110410 Trading Volume Down as Markets Rise

    Barry Ritholz notes "Fed induced rallies tend to be liquidity, not conviction driven. Thus, the anemic volume".

    Breadth is Starting to Show Signs of Fatigue as Well. 

    The following chart shows the percent of stocks trading above their 50-Day Moving Averages.

     

    110410 SP500 Issues Above 50-Day Moving Average 
    In strong markets, this indicator goes up as price rises.  However, as the market rally loses momentum, this indicator starts tracing-out lower highs.

    So what do you do?  With the charts shown above and QE2 is supposedly ending in June … price is still the primary indicator.  Until sellers show up with conviction, the liquidity rally is likely to continue.

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  • Are Cracks Starting to Show in the Rally’s Foundation?

    Newsweek had a great cover:  "Apocalypse Now". Think about it, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Nuclear Melt-Downs, Revolutions, Governments on the Verge of Shutting-Down …

    110410 Newsweek Apocalypse Now Cover

    And, yet, despite a cavalcade of horrors … the markets have held up well.

    Is This as Good as it Gets?

    Barron's notes:

    Having snagged its best first quarter since 1998, the U.S. stock market began April on a hopeful, if hesitant, note, encouraged by evidence that our economy is improving, but a little fearful that this may be as good as it gets.

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged briefly above its recent February peak to reach its highest level in nearly three years, effectively brushing aside recent concerns such as high oil prices, flailing European banks and disruptions in the wake of Japan's disaster that had so alarmed investors mere weeks earlier.

    Are Cracks Starting to Show in the Rally's Foundation?

    Bloomberg posted a chart showing the bull market move put in by the S&P 500 Index.  Note, however, the dwindling volume of shares traded, especially since prices rebounded off lows earlier this year.

     

    110410 Trading Volume Down as Markets Rise

    Barry Ritholz notes "Fed induced rallies tend to be liquidity, not conviction driven. Thus, the anemic volume".

    Breadth is Starting to Show Signs of Fatigue as Well. 

    The following chart shows the percent of stocks trading above their 50-Day Moving Averages.

     

    110410 SP500 Issues Above 50-Day Moving Average 
    In strong markets, this indicator goes up as price rises.  However, as the market rally loses momentum, this indicator starts tracing-out lower highs.

    So what do you do?  With the charts shown above and QE2 is supposedly ending in June … price is still the primary indicator.  Until sellers show up with conviction, the liquidity rally is likely to continue.

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  • Cartoon Shows How GE’s Logo Reflects Its Corporate Values

    GE has been in the news recently because of its clever use of tax loopholes.

     

    110331 GE Logo Reflects Corporate Values

    Clever.

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  • Cartoon Shows How GE’s Logo Reflects Its Corporate Values

    GE has been in the news recently because of its clever use of tax loopholes.

     

    110331 GE Logo Reflects Corporate Values

    Clever.

    Related articles
    Enhanced by Zemanta