Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • A Humorous Look at How Bail-Outs Work – Life in an Irish Town

    101227 Irish Pub Bailout So this is how it's done …

    It is a slow day in a damp little Irish town. The rain is beating down, and the streets are deserted.

    Times are tough. Everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit.

    On this particular day, a rich German tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

    The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

    The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.

    The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.

    The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the pub.

    The bar owner slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.

    The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note.

    The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect anything. At that moment, the traveler comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money and leaves town.

    No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.

    And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the bailout package works.

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  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/27/10 – Sentiment in Holiday Spirits

    Market Commentary.

    The S&P 500 Index has had quite a run.  On Wednesday, Bespoke noted that it has been up 14 out of 16 days.  Since 1990, the S&P has only been up 14 out of 16 trading days two other times — once in September 1995 and once in May 1990.

    101226 SP500 Up 14 Out of 16 Days

    So, You Might Guess That Bullish Sentiment is High.

    Well, it is probably higher than you realize.  We haven't seen readings like this in a long time.  The American Association of Individual Investors poll had the highest percentage of bulls (63) since October 2004, and the lowest percentage of bears (16) since October 2005.

     

    101226 AAII Bullish Percent at Extremes

    Moreover, lots of other sentiment measures are showing similar readings

    Carl Swenlin, from DecisionPoint, reminds that while high levels of bullish sentiment among advisors, investors, and money managers usually occur at market tops, market tops do not always occur when sentiment is very bullish. Sometimes people respond to the obvious and correctly align their market posture with the price trend. In situations like this we have to wonder whether or not they are wrong.

    In other words, an excess of bullish sentiment is a caution sign and should cause concern because such sentiment peaks are often followed by price corrections, if not bull market tops.  However, that doesn't mean it is safe to use sentiment as a timing tool. Perhaps sentiment is better used as a simple indicator to help paint a picture of the market environment. So far we have no indication from our trend-following models that there are major problems ahead.

    Another Measure Brims With Confidence.

    Here is a slightly different take on perceived risk.  The Barron’s Confidence Index is a confidence indicator calculated by dividing the average yield on high-grade bonds by the average yield on intermediate-grade bonds. The discrepancy between the yields is indicative of investor confidence. For example, a rising ratio indicates investors are demanding a lower premium in yield for increased risk  and thus are showing confidence in the economy. 

    As shown below, there has been a solid improvement in the ratio since its all-time low in December 2008.  This indicates that bond investors have grown significantly more confident, opting for more speculative bonds over high-grade bonds. The ratio is back at levels last seen in October 2007, before the financial crisis.

    101226 Barron's Confidence Index

    Presidential Cycle Points to a Bullish 2011.

    Here is another piece of data pointing upwards.  Historically, the third year for a president produces a good return for investors. Investment strategists Liz Ann Sonders and Sam Stovall say why 2011 will be no different.


     

    Bottom-Line:  The economy and stock market end the year stronger than expected.  Happy New Year!

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Forecasters Predict a Strong Recovery in 2011. (NYTimes)
    • The Black Swans of 2011 – From Saxo Bank. (PragCap)
    • Meredith Whitney Says 50-100 U.S. Cities Might Go Bust in 2011. (BusinessInsider)
    • Amazon Sold 8MM Kindles in 2010 – Is There a Natural Limit? (Ritholtz)
    • Forbes List of the World's Billionaires – and the New Richest Man. (Forbes)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • A Look Back at the Biggest Controversies of 2010 (TheWeek)
    • Holiday Spoof: Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is … Jews". (Ritholtz)
    • "Think and Grow Rich" Download. Great Reading for the New Year. (Entrepreneur)
    • The FCC Splits the Internet in Two: Fast or Slow Are Your Choices. (TDB)
    • Trick Play Used to Win the TX High School Football State Championship. (BizInsider)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
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  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/27/10 – Sentiment in Holiday Spirits

    Market Commentary.

    The S&P 500 Index has had quite a run.  On Wednesday, Bespoke noted that it has been up 14 out of 16 days.  Since 1990, the S&P has only been up 14 out of 16 trading days two other times — once in September 1995 and once in May 1990.

    101226 SP500 Up 14 Out of 16 Days

    So, You Might Guess That Bullish Sentiment is High.

    Well, it is probably higher than you realize.  We haven't seen readings like this in a long time.  The American Association of Individual Investors poll had the highest percentage of bulls (63) since October 2004, and the lowest percentage of bears (16) since October 2005.

     

    101226 AAII Bullish Percent at Extremes

    Moreover, lots of other sentiment measures are showing similar readings

    Carl Swenlin, from DecisionPoint, reminds that while high levels of bullish sentiment among advisors, investors, and money managers usually occur at market tops, market tops do not always occur when sentiment is very bullish. Sometimes people respond to the obvious and correctly align their market posture with the price trend. In situations like this we have to wonder whether or not they are wrong.

    In other words, an excess of bullish sentiment is a caution sign and should cause concern because such sentiment peaks are often followed by price corrections, if not bull market tops.  However, that doesn't mean it is safe to use sentiment as a timing tool. Perhaps sentiment is better used as a simple indicator to help paint a picture of the market environment. So far we have no indication from our trend-following models that there are major problems ahead.

    Another Measure Brims With Confidence.

    Here is a slightly different take on perceived risk.  The Barron’s Confidence Index is a confidence indicator calculated by dividing the average yield on high-grade bonds by the average yield on intermediate-grade bonds. The discrepancy between the yields is indicative of investor confidence. For example, a rising ratio indicates investors are demanding a lower premium in yield for increased risk  and thus are showing confidence in the economy. 

    As shown below, there has been a solid improvement in the ratio since its all-time low in December 2008.  This indicates that bond investors have grown significantly more confident, opting for more speculative bonds over high-grade bonds. The ratio is back at levels last seen in October 2007, before the financial crisis.

    101226 Barron's Confidence Index

    Presidential Cycle Points to a Bullish 2011.

    Here is another piece of data pointing upwards.  Historically, the third year for a president produces a good return for investors. Investment strategists Liz Ann Sonders and Sam Stovall say why 2011 will be no different.


     

    Bottom-Line:  The economy and stock market end the year stronger than expected.  Happy New Year!

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Forecasters Predict a Strong Recovery in 2011. (NYTimes)
    • The Black Swans of 2011 – From Saxo Bank. (PragCap)
    • Meredith Whitney Says 50-100 U.S. Cities Might Go Bust in 2011. (BusinessInsider)
    • Amazon Sold 8MM Kindles in 2010 – Is There a Natural Limit? (Ritholtz)
    • Forbes List of the World's Billionaires – and the New Richest Man. (Forbes)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • A Look Back at the Biggest Controversies of 2010 (TheWeek)
    • Holiday Spoof: Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is … Jews". (Ritholtz)
    • "Think and Grow Rich" Download. Great Reading for the New Year. (Entrepreneur)
    • The FCC Splits the Internet in Two: Fast or Slow Are Your Choices. (TDB)
    • Trick Play Used to Win the TX High School Football State Championship. (BizInsider)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
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  • Holiday Wishes

    Hopefully you are spending some quality time with family and friends. 

    Holiday Time With Friends

    Let me start by taking a moment to wish you all the best during this holiday season.

    Your friendship and loyalty is deeply appreciated.

    May this holiday season bring you wonderful memories that last a lifetime – and may 2011 prove to be your most profitable year ever.

    Happy Holidays and Best Wishes for the New Year!

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  • Holiday Wishes

    Hopefully you are spending some quality time with family and friends. 

    Holiday Time With Friends

    Let me start by taking a moment to wish you all the best during this holiday season.

    Your friendship and loyalty is deeply appreciated.

    May this holiday season bring you wonderful memories that last a lifetime – and may 2011 prove to be your most profitable year ever.

    Happy Holidays and Best Wishes for the New Year!

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  • Uncle Jay Sings the News – Year-End Summary Song

    I look forward to this each year.  Watch as Uncle Jay sings his year-end summary of the news.

    Uncle Jay has a website he says "helps small minds understand big news".  Happy New Year.

  • Uncle Jay Sings the News – Year-End Summary Song

    I look forward to this each year.  Watch as Uncle Jay sings his year-end summary of the news.

    Uncle Jay has a website he says "helps small minds understand big news".  Happy New Year.

  • “Imagine” – A New Song Around the World, by Playing For Change

    Here is something worth sharing for the holiday season and new year. It is a video of different musicians, playing around the globe, combining their talents to create a new version of of John Lennon's classic, "Imagine".  Here is the video.

     

    Imagine from Playing For Change Foundation on Vimeo.

    Here is a link to "Stand By Me".  And here are more Playing For Change videos

    Song Around the World.

    It toook almost a year for the Playing For Change crew to complete John Lennon's "Imagine." Like other Song Around the World productions, it is played by various musicians from around the world.
    Creating this piece took the crew from the favelas of Brazil to the shrines of southern India, from villages in Nepal to the glittering urban landscape of Tokyo and New York, and beyond.
    The filmmakers asked musicians to record their version of the song by themselves. The finished project combines these performances to create an a "music video" of these artists playing together.
    The Playing For Change Foundation and Yoko Ono joined together to launch the Power to the People campaign. The campaign seeks to advance John Lennon’s vision of peace by engaging artists and audiences to contribute to music education programs worldwide. Proceeds raised will help build music schools, support teachers and music programs, purchase instruments, and connect schools for cross-cultural learning and conflict resolution across borders.  As they say "Music IS the power: Power to the People."
    Find out more at Playing For Change.
  • “Imagine” – A New Song Around the World, by Playing For Change

    Here is something worth sharing for the holiday season and new year. It is a video of different musicians, playing around the globe, combining their talents to create a new version of of John Lennon's classic, "Imagine".  Here is the video.

     

    Imagine from Playing For Change Foundation on Vimeo.

    Here is a link to "Stand By Me".  And here are more Playing For Change videos

    Song Around the World.

    It toook almost a year for the Playing For Change crew to complete John Lennon's "Imagine." Like other Song Around the World productions, it is played by various musicians from around the world.
    Creating this piece took the crew from the favelas of Brazil to the shrines of southern India, from villages in Nepal to the glittering urban landscape of Tokyo and New York, and beyond.
    The filmmakers asked musicians to record their version of the song by themselves. The finished project combines these performances to create an a "music video" of these artists playing together.
    The Playing For Change Foundation and Yoko Ono joined together to launch the Power to the People campaign. The campaign seeks to advance John Lennon’s vision of peace by engaging artists and audiences to contribute to music education programs worldwide. Proceeds raised will help build music schools, support teachers and music programs, purchase instruments, and connect schools for cross-cultural learning and conflict resolution across borders.  As they say "Music IS the power: Power to the People."
    Find out more at Playing For Change.
  • Capitalogix Commentary 12/20/10 – Price Stays High as Breadth Weakens

    The Markets are up, so all is well.  Meanwhile, Obama Claus is suited-up and ready to continue delivering the debt. Consider it our gift to future generations …

    101218 Obama Claus Delivering the Debt

    Market Commentary

    The S&P 500 Index remains at the top of its trading range and is making new highs for the year. 

     

    101218 SP500 Making New Yearly Highs

    Watch For Weakness as Breadth Weakens.

    Notice the negative divergence, marked by the red arrow.  While the S&P 500 Index surged higher, less than 80% of the stocks in the index are trading above their 50-day moving averages.  This means that not all stocks have been participating in the current rally, which is a potential warning sign of impending weakness.

     

    101218 SP500 Components Above Their 50 Day Average

    Looking For a Positive Sign? 

    Lumber is surging.  Moreover, the Homebuilders SPDR and the Home Construction iShares  both are showing strength. This may show an increase in demand and often implies more construction.

     

    101218 Lumber Surge Is a Good Sign

    Seems like good news to me.  Jim Cramer recently advised: "It is never too late to change. Things are good, not bad. Don't play irony. Don't be too skeptical. Be opportunistic."  What do you think?

    The Year-End Bespoke Roundtable.

      101218 Bespoke Roundtable 2011

    At the end of each year, the big financial media outlets typically conduct roundtables to get outlooks from key players in the financial markets.  The Bespoke Roundtable asks twelve of the most popular financial blogs/websites the same 34 questions regarding their 2011 outlooks and their take on 2010.  There are many insightful tidbits worth thinking about.

     

    101218 Bespoke Roundtable Matrix

    The consensus view is that the S&P 500 will be up in 2011, bonds will be down, oil will be up, the dollar will be up, US home prices will be up, and China's stock market will be up.  Interestingly, the consensus view was the exact same as it was last year for all asset classes except for gold.  Less participants think gold will go down in 2011 than they did in 2010.  Here is the link to the full post.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

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