Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Could the Adoption of the iPad Really Be as Significant as the Adoption of the Internet?

    A small software company, started by a friend of mine, just did something that surprised me. It bought a new iPad for each of its employees.

     

    110501 iPad2 Image

    Some companies will justify purchasing an iPad for key executives as a consumption tool. Other companies may justify purchasing an iPad for a developer, as a way to get them used to the form factor. Still other companies may purchase iPads as an incentive to recruit or retain employees and to foster a sense of a "cool" environment.

    This Time It Is Different.

    What strikes me is how fast this wave of tablet computing is taking-off. Yes, I remember how many times companies have tried non-traditional PC initiatives. In fact, my attic is an electronics graveyard for many of the earlier attempts. However, this time is different. I see 60-year-old men in McDonald's using and iPad to play Scrabble. I see 50-year-old business-people doing their work using iPads on an airplane. Moreover, I see data being formatted for easier consumption on those devices.

    The result is that this probably represents a fundamental change.

    Back in the 90s, the Internet finally took off. Early adopters talked about how long they were doing similar things with AOL, CompuServe or Delphi. Yet, when the Internet finally took off something changed.

    Would you have guessed that a decade later electronics chain stores (like Circuit City) or bookstores (like Borders) would be casualties? Think how it affected the U.S. Post Office, telephone companies, etc. The list of winners and losers from that shift can be a lesson or an example.

    A Different Look at the Same Issue.

    I grew up with LP records. In high school, I watched eight-track tapes give way to cassettes. Then CDs gathered market share. After that, MP3s came along. Something funny happened along the way though … An MP3 file is just a song; but modern MP3 players allow you to carry your entire music library with you wherever you go. It's not just a linear progression; something happened and the whole value proposition transformed.

    We are watching a similar technology shift happen right now. To borrow a line from Sun Microsystems, "the network is the computer".

    More of our data, applications, and services are moving to the "Cloud". And a tool like the iPad can become much more significant than merely the device itself. It becomes the portal giving you access to everything on your company's private computers, as well as what's available on the public Internet. Again, the whole value proposition transforms.

    A decade from now, there will be a whole new list of beneficiaries and casualties from this quantum shift.

    Something to think about; who will be the big winners and losers?

    Related articles
    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Markets at New Highs – So Why Hasn’t It Been Easy to Trade?

    While the US Equity Indices have broken out above recent highs to continue their up-trend, I hear traders complain that this hasn't been an easy market to trade.

    Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index.

    110501 SP500 Index at New High
    On one hand, you'd think that a straight-shot bull run higher would feel as safe as the kiddie rides at the amusement park. On the other hand, sagging internal breadth, divergences, and the impending end of QE2 have triggered cautious instincts in many professional traders. As a result, many are selling strength, and end up under-invested during the next push higher.

    It's been even more challenging for the Bears, who keep trying to identify and sell a top in this market. However, there's been little selling follow-through. My guess is that because so few people are fully invested in the equity markets, each dip (no matter how small) seems like a buying opportunity to someone.

    So, how long can the markets continue to produce these straight up moves to new highs? While the answer would seem to be "indefinitely", we know that's not realistic either. This seems a lot like the market did from December through February, where we barely saw a red day; but you couldn't help wondering each day if this was the top.

    A Little Politics and Economic Policy.

    On a side note, Fed Chairman Bernanke held a press conference last week. It was the first ever press conference immediately following a Federal Reserve meeting.  Historically, the Fed has released minutes of their meetings about three weeks afterwards. Now, they expect to hold these sessions after every meeting.

    On the surface, Bernanke's comments reiterated that the Fed was resolute in their intent to stop QE2 and doesn't desire to reverse the current trend of inflation or a weakening dollar. What caught my eye, however, was how Gold and Silver spiked as he spoke.

    It is worth noting that the U.S. Dollar has fallen 31% so far this year compared to Gold. Likewise the Dollar has fallen 25% against the Swiss Franc (which many consider the gold standard of Fiat Currencies). For what it is worth, the Dollar Index is barely a percentage point above the all-time lows set before the financial panic in 2008.

    Related articles
    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Markets at New Highs – So Why Hasn’t It Been Easy to Trade?

    While the US Equity Indices have broken out above recent highs to continue their up-trend, I hear traders complain that this hasn't been an easy market to trade.

    Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index.

    110501 SP500 Index at New High
    On one hand, you'd think that a straight-shot bull run higher would feel as safe as the kiddie rides at the amusement park. On the other hand, sagging internal breadth, divergences, and the impending end of QE2 have triggered cautious instincts in many professional traders. As a result, many are selling strength, and end up under-invested during the next push higher.

    It's been even more challenging for the Bears, who keep trying to identify and sell a top in this market. However, there's been little selling follow-through. My guess is that because so few people are fully invested in the equity markets, each dip (no matter how small) seems like a buying opportunity to someone.

    So, how long can the markets continue to produce these straight up moves to new highs? While the answer would seem to be "indefinitely", we know that's not realistic either. This seems a lot like the market did from December through February, where we barely saw a red day; but you couldn't help wondering each day if this was the top.

    A Little Politics and Economic Policy.

    On a side note, Fed Chairman Bernanke held a press conference last week. It was the first ever press conference immediately following a Federal Reserve meeting.  Historically, the Fed has released minutes of their meetings about three weeks afterwards. Now, they expect to hold these sessions after every meeting.

    On the surface, Bernanke's comments reiterated that the Fed was resolute in their intent to stop QE2 and doesn't desire to reverse the current trend of inflation or a weakening dollar. What caught my eye, however, was how Gold and Silver spiked as he spoke.

    It is worth noting that the U.S. Dollar has fallen 31% so far this year compared to Gold. Likewise the Dollar has fallen 25% against the Swiss Franc (which many consider the gold standard of Fiat Currencies). For what it is worth, the Dollar Index is barely a percentage point above the all-time lows set before the financial panic in 2008.

    Related articles
    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Great Video – “The Race” is an Uplifting Reminder of What’s Possible

    Worth watching.
     
    Heather Dorniden, from the University of Minnesota, races the 600m at the Big 10 Indoor Track Championships. What happens reminds what a race really is about … and, perhaps, what life is really about.
     
    Here is the video.
     

     

    We will fall. We can rise.  It is a choice.

    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Great Video – “The Race” is an Uplifting Reminder of What’s Possible

    Worth watching.
     
    Heather Dorniden, from the University of Minnesota, races the 600m at the Big 10 Indoor Track Championships. What happens reminds what a race really is about … and, perhaps, what life is really about.
     
    Here is the video.
     

     

    We will fall. We can rise.  It is a choice.

    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Here a Few Links for Your Weekend Reading Enjoyment

    My week flew by.  Meetings, site visits, too many business meals at restaurants seemingly conspiring to make a 300 pounder out of me.
     
    Here are some of the links that caught my eye or attention … hope you find something interesting.

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • Why Record Corporate Profits Might Not Be Good for the U.S. Economy. (Slate)
    • "Something's Brewing" Behind These Fascinating Financial Times. (HL)
    • 24 Signs Warning Something Is Wrong With Our Economy. (BusinessInsider)
    • Hong Kong & Singapore Closing in on NY as Dominant Hedge-Fund Hub. (efinance)
    • Creative Destruction: Japan and the Economics of Natural Disasters. (NewYorker)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Four Reasons Any Action Is Better than None. Makes Sense. (HBR)
    • Genetically Modified Cows Produce 'Human' Milk. (Telegraph)
    • College Grants for Vegans? Students Tap Unusual Sources for Financial Aid. (WSJ)
    • Why the Cloud Is Actually the Safest Place for Your Data. (Mashable)
    • Guess Who Doesn't Tweet? 87% name recognition, But Only 7% Use It. (MediaPost)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

     

  • Gold Has Been Glittering, But Silver Has Had a Stronger Move

    Gold continues to receive the headlines, yet silver is really moving.

    Bespoke posted a chart that highlights how remarkable silver's run has been.

     

    110424 Silver Gold and the SPX

    Had you invested $100 in silver ten years ago today, your investment would now be worth $1,037.  A $100 investment in gold would be worth about half that at $569, and a $100 investment in the stock market (S&P 500) would be worth just $107.48.

    Here is what Jim Rogers thinks about silver's move.

     

     

     

    For more on that, here is a link to an article where he reminds that parabolic moves always collapse.

     

    Related articles
    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Gold Has Been Glittering, But Silver Has Had a Stronger Move

    Gold continues to receive the headlines, yet silver is really moving.

    Bespoke posted a chart that highlights how remarkable silver's run has been.

     

    110424 Silver Gold and the SPX

    Had you invested $100 in silver ten years ago today, your investment would now be worth $1,037.  A $100 investment in gold would be worth about half that at $569, and a $100 investment in the stock market (S&P 500) would be worth just $107.48.

    Here is what Jim Rogers thinks about silver's move.

     

     

     

    For more on that, here is a link to an article where he reminds that parabolic moves always collapse.

     

    Related articles
    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Do You Get Too Much E-Mail? Here’s How to Handle it.

    Am4-boxbanner Auto-Mate is a Microsoft Outlook add-in that automatically organizes your inbox and other mail folders. It  makes it easy for you to focus on the items that are important or related to a topic you choose.

    Do you get too much e-mail?

    I'm amazed at the volume of information that passes through my inbox. It's a challenge to figure out what's important, what's relevant, and what deserves time and attention.

    That's where Auto-Mate shines. It watches your message traffic and takes action based on the rules and filters you've enabled.  Pergenex ships Auto-Mate with many pre-built tools and templates. In addition, it's easy to customize based on the way that you work and use mail. For example, it will automatically create folders for any contact that you have corresponded with, or it can put your mail into folders based on years and months.

    Personally, I use a different organization structure than that.  I prefer to sort items based on topics. So, I have a categories for business, hedge funds, family, internal company matters, etc.

    Here's an example of a screenshot of my folder structure. I've taken a before and after snapshot. Notice how many items are in my inbox versus the topic folders. The Auto-Mate rule engine puts things where they should be, so you can spend your time more efficiently and effectively.

     

    110423 Auto-Mate's Effect on Folders
    Why You Should Use Auto-Mate.

    Outlook comes with a pretty powerful rule engine itself. Auto-Mate extends these capabilities significantly. Some of the ways that Auto-Mate is better include the number of rules you can store and manage, the types of activities, actions, and exceptions you can use to customize your workflow. 

    Another key benefit is that Pergenex lets you take different action based on time.  That means Auto-Mate lets you run a rule on a particular message that has been in a certain folder for a certain period of time. 

    For example, I use my inbox as a point of focus … when I get an e-mail from someone important (like a direct report, key stakeholder, family member, accountant, or advisor), I want it to stay in the inbox for a period of time (so that I notice it, pay attention to it, and deal with it).  However, if it's there for over a week, then it makes sense for this program to automatically file it in the appropriate folder. That's just one example of how these rules keep your inbox as a productivity tool rather than a distraction.

    Am4-collage

    Here are some examples of what you can do with Auto-Mate.

    • You can create an unlimited number of rules and organize them how you want.
    • You can also easily to update your rules when it makes sense to do so.
    • Not only can you run rules when new mail arrives or when new mail is sent, but you can also run rules "on demand" or in the background to perform general cleanup and archiving.
    • Speaking of archiving, Auto-mate can easily reduce your mailbox storage size by extracting attachments and saving them to your hard disk or a network folder. It even leaves a link in your email messages so you can easily re-open the attachment.

     In addition, there are many features for advanced users, from auto-responders, auto-printing of certain messages, auto-compressing attachments in messages, and even executing other programs.

    Best of all, it works reliably and does great job.  All in all, this is a well-designed tool and worth a try.

    Here's a link to download a copy for yourself.

    Enhanced by Zemanta

  • Do You Get Too Much E-Mail? Here’s How to Handle it.

    Am4-boxbanner Auto-Mate is a Microsoft Outlook add-in that automatically organizes your inbox and other mail folders. It  makes it easy for you to focus on the items that are important or related to a topic you choose.

    Do you get too much e-mail?

    I'm amazed at the volume of information that passes through my inbox. It's a challenge to figure out what's important, what's relevant, and what deserves time and attention.

    That's where Auto-Mate shines. It watches your message traffic and takes action based on the rules and filters you've enabled.  Pergenex ships Auto-Mate with many pre-built tools and templates. In addition, it's easy to customize based on the way that you work and use mail. For example, it will automatically create folders for any contact that you have corresponded with, or it can put your mail into folders based on years and months.

    Personally, I use a different organization structure than that.  I prefer to sort items based on topics. So, I have a categories for business, hedge funds, family, internal company matters, etc.

    Here's an example of a screenshot of my folder structure. I've taken a before and after snapshot. Notice how many items are in my inbox versus the topic folders. The Auto-Mate rule engine puts things where they should be, so you can spend your time more efficiently and effectively.

     

    110423 Auto-Mate's Effect on Folders
    Why You Should Use Auto-Mate.

    Outlook comes with a pretty powerful rule engine itself. Auto-Mate extends these capabilities significantly. Some of the ways that Auto-Mate is better include the number of rules you can store and manage, the types of activities, actions, and exceptions you can use to customize your workflow. 

    Another key benefit is that Pergenex lets you take different action based on time.  That means Auto-Mate lets you run a rule on a particular message that has been in a certain folder for a certain period of time. 

    For example, I use my inbox as a point of focus … when I get an e-mail from someone important (like a direct report, key stakeholder, family member, accountant, or advisor), I want it to stay in the inbox for a period of time (so that I notice it, pay attention to it, and deal with it).  However, if it's there for over a week, then it makes sense for this program to automatically file it in the appropriate folder. That's just one example of how these rules keep your inbox as a productivity tool rather than a distraction.

    Am4-collage

    Here are some examples of what you can do with Auto-Mate.

    • You can create an unlimited number of rules and organize them how you want.
    • You can also easily to update your rules when it makes sense to do so.
    • Not only can you run rules when new mail arrives or when new mail is sent, but you can also run rules "on demand" or in the background to perform general cleanup and archiving.
    • Speaking of archiving, Auto-mate can easily reduce your mailbox storage size by extracting attachments and saving them to your hard disk or a network folder. It even leaves a link in your email messages so you can easily re-open the attachment.

     In addition, there are many features for advanced users, from auto-responders, auto-printing of certain messages, auto-compressing attachments in messages, and even executing other programs.

    Best of all, it works reliably and does great job.  All in all, this is a well-designed tool and worth a try.

    Here's a link to download a copy for yourself.

    Enhanced by Zemanta