Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Video Captures Obama’s Favorite Catch-Phrases

    ‘Make no mistake,’ Obama is a big fan of his own catchphrases.

    This video shows that there’s no mistaking it: “Make no mistake” is President Obama’s favorite catchphrase.
      

    Statistics gathered by the Global Language Monitor reveal that Obama has said it 2,924 times since he was sworn into office more than two years ago.

    Other signature Obama sayings include: "Win the future" (1,861 times),  “Here’s the deal” (1,450 times), and “Let me be clear,” (1,066 times). In a nod to the tough financial times he has faced, the president’s fifth most popular motto is “It will not be easy” (1,059 times).

     
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  • Here a Few Links for Weekend Reading

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    • ETFs to Top 2nd $ Trillion in 3 Years; it took 18 years to get the 1st. (STM)
    • Market Confidence, Tricks and Placebos. (PsyFiTec)
    • Is Apple On Target For Its First $100 Billion Revenue Year? (Forbes)
    • McDonald's to hire 50,000 workers, starting April 19th. (Money)
    • Data Guru Warns of Future 'Bots Hacking the Markets. (Barrons)
    • More Posts Moving the Markets.

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

  • Are Cracks Starting to Show in the Rally’s Foundation?

    Newsweek had a great cover:  "Apocalypse Now". Think about it, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Nuclear Melt-Downs, Revolutions, Governments on the Verge of Shutting-Down …

    110410 Newsweek Apocalypse Now Cover

    And, yet, despite a cavalcade of horrors … the markets have held up well.

    Is This as Good as it Gets?

    Barron's notes:

    Having snagged its best first quarter since 1998, the U.S. stock market began April on a hopeful, if hesitant, note, encouraged by evidence that our economy is improving, but a little fearful that this may be as good as it gets.

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged briefly above its recent February peak to reach its highest level in nearly three years, effectively brushing aside recent concerns such as high oil prices, flailing European banks and disruptions in the wake of Japan's disaster that had so alarmed investors mere weeks earlier.

    Are Cracks Starting to Show in the Rally's Foundation?

    Bloomberg posted a chart showing the bull market move put in by the S&P 500 Index.  Note, however, the dwindling volume of shares traded, especially since prices rebounded off lows earlier this year.

     

    110410 Trading Volume Down as Markets Rise

    Barry Ritholz notes "Fed induced rallies tend to be liquidity, not conviction driven. Thus, the anemic volume".

    Breadth is Starting to Show Signs of Fatigue as Well. 

    The following chart shows the percent of stocks trading above their 50-Day Moving Averages.

     

    110410 SP500 Issues Above 50-Day Moving Average 
    In strong markets, this indicator goes up as price rises.  However, as the market rally loses momentum, this indicator starts tracing-out lower highs.

    So what do you do?  With the charts shown above and QE2 is supposedly ending in June … price is still the primary indicator.  Until sellers show up with conviction, the liquidity rally is likely to continue.

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  • Are Cracks Starting to Show in the Rally’s Foundation?

    Newsweek had a great cover:  "Apocalypse Now". Think about it, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Nuclear Melt-Downs, Revolutions, Governments on the Verge of Shutting-Down …

    110410 Newsweek Apocalypse Now Cover

    And, yet, despite a cavalcade of horrors … the markets have held up well.

    Is This as Good as it Gets?

    Barron's notes:

    Having snagged its best first quarter since 1998, the U.S. stock market began April on a hopeful, if hesitant, note, encouraged by evidence that our economy is improving, but a little fearful that this may be as good as it gets.

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged briefly above its recent February peak to reach its highest level in nearly three years, effectively brushing aside recent concerns such as high oil prices, flailing European banks and disruptions in the wake of Japan's disaster that had so alarmed investors mere weeks earlier.

    Are Cracks Starting to Show in the Rally's Foundation?

    Bloomberg posted a chart showing the bull market move put in by the S&P 500 Index.  Note, however, the dwindling volume of shares traded, especially since prices rebounded off lows earlier this year.

     

    110410 Trading Volume Down as Markets Rise

    Barry Ritholz notes "Fed induced rallies tend to be liquidity, not conviction driven. Thus, the anemic volume".

    Breadth is Starting to Show Signs of Fatigue as Well. 

    The following chart shows the percent of stocks trading above their 50-Day Moving Averages.

     

    110410 SP500 Issues Above 50-Day Moving Average 
    In strong markets, this indicator goes up as price rises.  However, as the market rally loses momentum, this indicator starts tracing-out lower highs.

    So what do you do?  With the charts shown above and QE2 is supposedly ending in June … price is still the primary indicator.  Until sellers show up with conviction, the liquidity rally is likely to continue.

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  • Cartoon Shows How GE’s Logo Reflects Its Corporate Values

    GE has been in the news recently because of its clever use of tax loopholes.

     

    110331 GE Logo Reflects Corporate Values

    Clever.

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  • Cartoon Shows How GE’s Logo Reflects Its Corporate Values

    GE has been in the news recently because of its clever use of tax loopholes.

     

    110331 GE Logo Reflects Corporate Values

    Clever.

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  • With Business Confidence High and a Teflon Market, What’s The Fed’s Next Move?

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average kicked off a new quarter by touching the highest point since the summer of 2008.

    A strengthening job market has private payrolls and business confidence surging … and layoffs waning. 

    Large corporations, which have been sitting on record troves of cash, could be poised to start hiring again. Fifty-two percent of top CEOs said they plan to increase hiring the next six months, according to the Business Roundtable's first-quarter survey. That's up from 45% in the fourth quarter and the highest in the survey's eight-year history. 

    Results like this imply that corporations are more optimistic and likely to expand.

    Does That Mean the Fed Has Met Its Mandate?

    * St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said “the economy is looking pretty good” and that the Fed should “see if we want to decide to finish the program or to stop a little bit short.”

    Bullard added that “it may be reasonable to send a signal to markets that we’re going to start withdrawing our stimulus, and I’d start by pulling up a little bit short on the QE2 program … We can’t be as accommodative as we are today for too long, we’ll create a lot of inflation if we do that.”

    * Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher went even further, telling a European audience that “We’ve done enough” and “we’re at risk of doing too much.” Fisher even went so far as to say the Fed’s dual mandate of controlling inflation and boosting employment should be changed. He wants the Fed to have no responsibility for employment, and to focus solely on inflation.

    * Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has the potential to be even more market moving this month, at the April 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Not only will this be the first meeting after these more hawkish remarks, but it will also be the first time the Fed holds a post-meeting press conference.

    Yes, you read that right … Rather than hide behind prepackaged statements, Ben Bernanke will stand in front of the microphone and explain the Fed’s actions. He’s going to do that several times a year going forward — with this year’s briefings scheduled for April 27, June 22, and November 2.

    If Bernanke shows any shift in policy, we could see some real market fireworks.  Just something to watch for.

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  • Here Are Some Links That Caught My Eye This Week

    110402 Butler Bulldog Some weekend reading.
     
    First, you may have seen that Butler will be making another trip to the NCAA Championship game. 
     
    Well, the Onion has it covered.  Here is a link to their article: "Butler Bulldogs Inspire Thousands Of Tall, Goony-Looking Midwestern Dorks".
     

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Paul Allen Slams Bill Gates in Memoir: When $13BB Isn't Enough. (MW & VF)
    • First-Person Account of Southwest's Plane Landing After Roof Blew Off. (Insider)
    • Clearest Picture of Japan’s Crisis Comes from 1000s of Miles Away. (NYTimes)
    • Great Visualization of the Imperial History of the Middle East. (Forbes)
    • Lost City of Atlantis, Swamped by Tsunami, Found by Researchers? (Reuters)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

  • Here Are Some Links That Caught My Eye This Week

    110402 Butler Bulldog Some weekend reading.
     
    First, you may have seen that Butler will be making another trip to the NCAA Championship game. 
     
    Well, the Onion has it covered.  Here is a link to their article: "Butler Bulldogs Inspire Thousands Of Tall, Goony-Looking Midwestern Dorks".
     

    Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

    Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

    • Paul Allen Slams Bill Gates in Memoir: When $13BB Isn't Enough. (MW & VF)
    • First-Person Account of Southwest's Plane Landing After Roof Blew Off. (Insider)
    • Clearest Picture of Japan’s Crisis Comes from 1000s of Miles Away. (NYTimes)
    • Great Visualization of the Imperial History of the Middle East. (Forbes)
    • Lost City of Atlantis, Swamped by Tsunami, Found by Researchers? (Reuters)
    • More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

  • Comparing Chinese Provinces with Countries

    China is still a toddler from an economic perspective.  No doubt, It is growing quickly.  What will happen as it matures?

    110331 An Overgrown Toddler photo of toddler from Sun article.

    Here is an infographic from the Economist that shows which countries match the GDP, population and exports of Chinese provinces.

     

    110331 Chinese Equivalents

     

    China is now the world’s second-biggest economy; but some of its provinces by themselves would rank fairly high in the global league.

    This map shows the nearest equivalent country. For example, Guangdong's GDP (at market exchange rates) is almost as big as Indonesia's; the output of both Jiangsu and Shandong exceeds Switzerland’s.

    They also produced an interactive country comparison to the US states.

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