Here is jigsaw graphic that shows the size of Africa relative to other countries.
via Kai Krause.
This video from the second season of "West Wing" presents other misleading map distortions.
Interesting stuff … Click here for more.
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Here Are Some Links to Start Your Week
We just passed the five-year anniversary of economic stimulus.
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
- Are We Alone in the Universe? (NYTimes)
- Some of the Most Plausible Scenarios for Alien Civilizations. (Io9)
- Lockheed Martin Working on a Spy Plane that Can Fly Anywhere on Earth—in an Hour. (Newser)
- The Future of Health Tech Is Going to Try to Improve Your Life In 2014. (TechCrunch)
- Six Famous Thought Experiments, Animated in 60 Seconds Each. (Brain Pickings)
- Are Banks Obsolete? (Forbes)
- How close are we to the self-driving car age? (The New Yorker)
- Drone Deliveries May Be a Sideshow to Amazon’s Real Ambition for the Skies. (Quartz)
- Why colonize planets when you can colonize outer space? (Dvorak)
- A “Future-Hunter” Examines the Dangers of Stock Trading at the Speed of Light. (ScientificAmerican)
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This is What a Bull Market Feels Like
Were you surprised how quickly Markets digested the risk of Russia and the Ukraine?
It’s not the news … it’s what markets do after the news hits. In Bear Markets, markets are looking for excuses to pull-back and take risk off the table. In Bull Markets, things can advance, even with uncertainty.
The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt. Historically, surging peaks of margin debt often happen before big market pull-backs.
The chart, below, shows the relationship between margin debt and the market (using the S&P 500 as the proxy for the market). Even adjusted for inflation, the latest data puts margin debt as at an all-time high.
via Doug Short.
Victor Sperandeo advised speculators to ride the false train of hope as far as possible and jump off just before it falls into the abyss.
Good luck.
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Chris Hadfield’s Interview — Don’t Just Aim For the Finish Line [Video]
As the Olympics ended, I saw something that caught my eye … and speaks to a wider audience.
It was an interview with astronaut, Chris Hadfield. In it, he talks about life, the universe, and what’s really out there.
One of the noteworthy points is not to focus solely on the finish line.
If you view crossing the finish line as the measure of your life, you’re setting yourself up for a personal disaster.
There are very very very few people who win gold at the Olympics. And if you say, ‘if I don’t win gold then I’m a failure or I’ve let somebody down or something,’ … What if you win a silver? What if you win a bronze? What if you come fourth? What if your binding comes apart? … What if all of those millions of things that happen in life happen?
Only a few people that go there are going to win gold. And it’s the same, in some degree, I think in commanding a spaceship or doing a spacewalk. It is a very rare, singular moment-in-time event in the continuum of life.
And you need to honor the highs and the peaks in the moments — you need to prepare your life for them — but recognize the fact that the preparation for those moments is your life and, in fact, that’s the richness of your life.
The challenge that we set for each other, and the way that we shape ourselves to rise to that challenge, is life.
Here is the video.
Focusing on the finish line can be tough, even if you win.
Let's say you set a big goal (for example: winning a gold medal, playing in the Super Bowl, IPOing your company, making a billion dollars, etc.). Achieving a goal like that is often anti-climactic. Why, because what's next? Was that the high point … and everything else is down-hill from there?"
Instead, focus on the process, the growth, and what it makes possible. That is where you will likely find the energy and motivation to find more ways to win and a bigger future.
What do you think?
If you want more Chris Hadfield, here is something.
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Here Are Some Links to Start Your Week
If ignorance is bliss … Why are the ignorant so angry?
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
- Don’t Make a Resolution; Find a Word. (Leadership Freak)
- Isaac Asimov’s 1964 Predictions about What the World Would Look Like in 2014. (OpenCulture)
- IBM's Artificial Intelligence Problem, or Why Watson Can't Get a Job. (Businessweek)
- Scientist: Cats Think You Are Just a Big, Stupid Cat. (CNet News)
- The Top Six Vitamins You Should Not Take. (Forbes)
- Why the West Sells Gold and China Buys It. (FuturesMag)
- Big Data Keeps Getting Bigger. Can Google Trends Predict the Market? (Forbes)
- How Many Turns in a Screw? Big Data Knows. Imagine this level of precision in trading. (WSJ)
- Trench Warfare Comes to Algobot Land. (MotherJones)
- Correlation vs Causation. (ChartPorn)
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Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter: The Oracle of Omaha Shares Some Wisdom
Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders is out.
Why should you care? Well, his fund posted a record profit, last year, of $19.5 billion. It owns meaningful parts of American Express, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, IBM, Exxon, Phillips 66, Walmart, Coca Cola … and the list goes on.Buffett's annual letter is always an interesting read … even if you don’t agree with everything he says. There is a reason he is called “the Oracle of Omaha.”
Here are a few of the ideas that I noted.
Own Low-Cost S&P 500 Index Funds:
Mr. Buffett advocates going long "the economic future of the United States."
That sentiment was nothing new for him: "We’ve been making similar wagers ever since Buffett Partnership Ltd. acquired control of Berkshire in 1965. For good reason, too. Charlie and I have always considered a 'bet' on ever-rising U.S. prosperity to be very close to a sure thing."
Historically, Mr. Buffett has cautioned against trying to pick winning stocks. Instead “own a cross section of businesses that, in aggregate, are bound to do well.” A low-cost S&P 500 index fund helps any investor do this well.
Mr. Buffett has emphasized this point throughout his investing career.
“In the 20th century, the Dow Jones industrial average advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial.”
Mr. Buffett writes that when he passes away, he has left instructions for his trustee to invest the cash designated for his wife in two ways — 10% in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P index fund. He suggests Vanguard’s index fund.
“I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors who employ high-fee managers.”
Swing Both Ways When It Comes To Investing:
Buffett said Berkshire likes to buy businesses outright, but also will invest large sums in stock or partial ownership of a company, to increase its profit opportunities.
"Woody Allen stated the general idea when he said: 'The advantage of being bisexual is that it doubles your chances for a date on Saturday night.' Similarly, our appetite for either operating businesses or passive investments doubles our chances of finding sensible uses for our endless gusher of cash."
A Hint Towards the Future:
Three things struck me here.
First, in describing the large purchase and financing of ketchup maker (H.J. Heinz), Mr. Buffett called it a 'template' that Berkshire Hathaway could use in future acquisitions.
Second, near the end of this year's letter, Mr. Buffett notes that most Americans don’t understand the math behind pensions … and cautions about the 'accelerating' dangers of local and state financial problems. Pensions, he says, have become a "gigantic financial tapeworm" because "public entities promised pensions they couldn’t afford." Mr. Buffett predicts: "During the next decade, you will read a lot of news — bad news– about public pension plans."
Third, he said: "Next year’s letter will review our 50 years at Berkshire and speculate a bit about the next 50." Interesting …
Mr. Buffett has often said: "At Berkshire, our time horizon is forever." That perspective makes it a lot easier for the game not to end until you've won.
It reminds me of a lesson from an earlier Annual Letter:
Nothing stopped so many innovators and entrepreneurs more than the fear of failure. If you allow yourself to be constantly scared into thinking that the world is doomed you will never take that risk which might result in great reward. And perhaps worse, if you never fail you will never learn to get up, brush yourself off, move on and succeed in the future. This does not mean you should wander through this world with great complacency and blind optimism, but if you deny yourself the ability to maximize your full potential, you will always come up short.
Two Other Things:
- Quicken Loans announced on Tuesday a $1 billion prize paid out over 40 years—insured by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway—to anyone who pulls off the ultimate forecasting feat in sports: predicting every tournament game's winner.The winner also gets investment advice from Mr. Buffett. (WSJ)
- Buffett bulleted five fundamentals of investing (BusinessInsider)
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Here Are Some Links to Start Your Week
Are the Olympics over yet? No? Here are some worthwile momements, in case you missed them.
For example, here, a woman tried to snap a picture of the hockey game between Russia and Slovenia — but instead she got an eyeful. Call it a new form of 'Selfie'.
And here's one the Wide World of Sports would call the "Thrill of Victory and the Agony of Defeat".
For more Olympic pictures, click here.
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
- Why Big Data Might Be More About Automation Than Insights. (GigaOM)
- Better Than Human: Why Robots Will — And Must — Take Our Jobs. (Wired)
- Why Are We Here? Evolution’s Dirty Secrets. (Salon)
- How Roommates Replaced Spouses in the 20th Century. (The Atlantic)
- Debunking the Myth of the 10,000-Hours Rule: What It Actually Takes to Reach Genius-Level Excellence. (Brain Pickings)
- FED: "Lower Rates Don't Induce Investment." Wasn't That a Central Tenet of Monetary Policy? (BI)
- Are Trading and Gambling the Same? (FuturesMag)
- Statistics Done Wrong: A Guide to Common Analysis Mistakes. (Online)
- IBM Announces $1B Watson Group, Moves Jeopardy Ace Computer To NYC. (Forbes)
- DeathWatch 2014 – Companies on the edge of irrelevance. These five companies won’t die, but they may not escape 2014 in one piece. (ArsTechnica)
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Why Facebook Thinks WhatsApp Is Worth $19B
When Facebook bought Instagram for $1B, I remember thinking that seemed like a lot of money. Well, this deal is like Facebook buying 19 Instagrams … That's lots of lots of money!
So, why does Facebook think WhatsApp is worth $19 Billion dollars?
The answer is surprisingly easy to understand.
When Facebook announced its acquisition of WhatsApp last week, it revealed some interesting statistics about WhatsApp's user base and overall usage. They are eye-popping.
According to Facebook's presentation slides, WhatsApp's 450 million monthly active users send 19 billion messages per day … and receive 34 billion (the seeming discrepancy is caused by WhatsApp's group chat feature, where one message can be sent to several receivers).
This chart shows how much an average user uses WhatsApp per month.
via Statista.
WhatsApp's growth and usage numbers are absolutely mind-boggling. As noted, it has 450 million monthly users … but 70 percent of them (310 million) use the service daily.
More impressively, Facebook claimed that the number of messages being sent through the company’s service is “approaching the entire global telecom SMS volume” (according to telecom market researcher Informa, this was about 19.5 billion last year).
And for a 'cherry-on-top', Whatsapp continues to bring in over a million new users each day. That’s the kind of growth that Facebook can’t ignore if it wants to remain a leader in social networking and communication, and the company knows it.
In other words, WhatsApp has both offensive and defensive value to Facebook.
One last thought on the subject … word on the street is that Whatsapp only had 55 employees. It is a testament to what cloud-scale is making possible.
Hope you have a great week. Sign-up to get this delivered once a week.
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Change may happen in an instant … but it’s easier to recognize over time.
These side-by-side pictures of me were taken almost exactly one year apart (the skinnier one was taken last week).
While I'm proud of the progress, there's still more work to do.
The result didn't come from Photoshop or fasting; it came from a consistent application of focus and activity.
On a day-to-day basis, my weight went up or down (seemingly randomly). Nonetheless, over time, burning more calories than I ate, measuring results, and adjusting the plan — led to meaningful progress on many levels.
Change can happen in an instant … Yet, it's often easier to see over time.
The goal, itself, can act as a compass heading – pointing in the right direction. The best next step is often simply being willing to take the best next step.
Entropy and inertia are always there if you stop along the way.
It's easy to get distracted by the practical realities and minor urgencies of life. This can pull you off track.
Likewise, while it seems like human nature to focus on how far you still have to go in order to reach your goal … this can be de-motivating. A better strategy is to recognize the progress you've made towards the ultimate goal, and use it as fuel towards more progress (or something better).
Samuel Johnson said, "If your determination is fixed, I do not counsel you to despair. Few things are impossible to diligence and skill. Great works are performed not by strength, but perseverance."
Given enough resources, you can do anything you commit to do. Some of those resources include money and time; but I believe that focus and energy are important as well.
As long as you continue to make progress, and don't give-up, possibility turns into probability … and probability turns into realized successes.
Hope you have a great week. Sign-up to get this delivered once a week.
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Here Are Some Links to Start Your Week
Age may come with some aches and pains, but it sure beats the alternative. Right?
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
- Leadership Is About Emotion. (Forbes)
- The Science Behind Storytelling — and Why It Matters. (Slideshare)
- How Many of Your Memories Are Fake? (The Atlantic)
- 16 Free Online Business Courses That Are Actually Worth Your Time. (BusinessInsider)
- What Will New York Look Like In 2050? (FastCompany)
- The World's 85 Richest People Are as Wealthy as the Poorest 3 Billion. (The Atlantic)
- Annual Forecast 2014. (Stratfor)
- U.S. Can Be World's Energy Superpower. (Wilmott)
- 4 Reasons You Shouldn’t Use Checklists & 4 Reasons You Should. (Institutional Investor)
- Does a "Machine-Based Economy" Threaten the End of Capitalism? (Huffington Post)
