How safe is the Market?

 

According to popular trading rules, May 1st marks the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. This is often referred to as "Sell-In-May-and-Go-Away".

 

Research published by Yale Hirsch in the Trader's Almanac shows that the market year is often broken into two six-month seasonality periods.

 

 

Here is a recent chart showing the returns, for the past 20 years, of this Halloween through April bullish seasonality idea.

 

 
via Business Insider.

 

Superficially, it seems to work … a little.

While the statistical average results for these two periods are quite compelling, trying to ride the market in real-time in hopes of capturing these results is not always as easy as it sounds.

Assume that bull and bear market pressures tend to override seasonal tendencies.

So what is happening now?

While the NYSE Composite has been doing its best to break to the upside … but it continues to be stuck in a decision zone.

Short-term momentum indicators, like the the McClellan Volume Oscillator, shows slight weakness.

 

 via Stockcharts.com.

So, what does it mean?

 

There are no guarantees in trading.  Every year is different and presents its own challenges (despite 'Sell in May' seasonality).

 

As we approach May, traders get wary.  That doesn't mean they sell.  Instead, they acknowledge that, historically,  a volatile, sideways-moving market is likely … and they prepare accordingly.

 

Nonetheless, price is your primary indicator and it makes sense to follow the primary trend.

 

 

How safe is the Market?

 

According to popular trading rules, May 1st marks the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. This is often referred to as "Sell-In-May-and-Go-Away".

 

Research published by Yale Hirsch in the Trader's Almanac shows that the market year is often broken into two six-month seasonality periods.

 

 

Here is a recent chart showing the returns, for the past 20 years, of this Halloween through April bullish seasonality idea.

 

 
via Business Insider.

 

Superficially, it seems to work … a little.

While the statistical average results for these two periods are quite compelling, trying to ride the market in real-time in hopes of capturing these results is not always as easy as it sounds.

Assume that bull and bear market pressures tend to override seasonal tendencies.

So what is happening now?

While the NYSE Composite has been doing its best to break to the upside … but it continues to be stuck in a decision zone.

Short-term momentum indicators, like the the McClellan Volume Oscillator, shows slight weakness.

 

 via Stockcharts.com.

So, what does it mean?

 

There are no guarantees in trading.  Every year is different and presents its own challenges (despite 'Sell in May' seasonality).

 

As we approach May, traders get wary.  That doesn't mean they sell.  Instead, they acknowledge that, historically,  a volatile, sideways-moving market is likely … and they prepare accordingly.

 

Nonetheless, price is your primary indicator and it makes sense to follow the primary trend.

 

 

According to the Pew Research Center report projecting the future of religious groups, Muslims will grow more than twice as fast as the overall world population between 2010 and 2050.

This report projects that Muslims will likely surpass Christians as the world’s largest religious group in the second half of this century.

 

via Pew Research.

While the world’s population is projected to grow 35% in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 73% – from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.8 billion in 2050.

 

The main reasons for Islam’s growth ultimately involve simple demographics. To begin with, Muslims have more children than members of the seven other major religious groups analyzed in the study.

 

It comes down to a simple birth vs. death calculation.  For example, look at the number of children at typical married couple has in different countries. In general, two people have to 'make' two people in order for the birth and death rates to remain constant. Countries like Germany and Japan have birth rates dramatically less than that.

 

Meanwhile, on average, each Muslim woman has an average of 3.1 children, significantly above the next-highest group (Christians at 2.7) and the average of all non-Muslims (2.3). Moreover, in all major regions where there is a sizable Muslim population, Muslim fertility exceeds non-Muslim fertility.

It doesn't take much economic, statistical, or mathematical prowess to predict how many 18-year-olds there will be in 15 years. The reason is that you start by counting the three-year-olds.

Tectonic shifts are happening. It's important to recognize them, and to understand the consequences.

According to the Pew Research Center report projecting the future of religious groups, Muslims will grow more than twice as fast as the overall world population between 2010 and 2050.

This report projects that Muslims will likely surpass Christians as the world’s largest religious group in the second half of this century.

 

via Pew Research.

While the world’s population is projected to grow 35% in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 73% – from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.8 billion in 2050.

 

The main reasons for Islam’s growth ultimately involve simple demographics. To begin with, Muslims have more children than members of the seven other major religious groups analyzed in the study.

 

It comes down to a simple birth vs. death calculation.  For example, look at the number of children at typical married couple has in different countries. In general, two people have to 'make' two people in order for the birth and death rates to remain constant. Countries like Germany and Japan have birth rates dramatically less than that.

 

Meanwhile, on average, each Muslim woman has an average of 3.1 children, significantly above the next-highest group (Christians at 2.7) and the average of all non-Muslims (2.3). Moreover, in all major regions where there is a sizable Muslim population, Muslim fertility exceeds non-Muslim fertility.

It doesn't take much economic, statistical, or mathematical prowess to predict how many 18-year-olds there will be in 15 years. The reason is that you start by counting the three-year-olds.

Tectonic shifts are happening. It's important to recognize them, and to understand the consequences.