Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Do We Still Need Humans?

    BrainIn my office, we use a lot of what seems like "futuristic" artificial intelligence approaches to understanding financial markets. Most of my team are technical or data-science specialists that develop and drive the systems that create our systems. 

    Pretty soon, we may start to question where using humans is still smart or cost-effective. 

    In the meantime, I'm fascinated by what is becoming possible … and how, even when the A.I. is little more than an elegant use of brute force, incredible results are becoming commonplace.

    MIT has been looking at work by many different organizations – including Google Brain – who are working on AI that can develop machine learning software

    In many cases, the results coming from machines coding other machines are matching or exceeding work done by humans

     As a point of reference, virtually all of our training techniques were developed or created by an A.I. process.

    Humans Need Not ApplyAI creating AI has many benefits.

    But, at this point in time, it still requires lots of human input and insight. 

    I suspect that won't be true for long.

      When that is true, what jobs will humans be doing?

     I have some thoughts, but I'd love to hear yours.

  • Quick, Draw!

    Our non-human overlords haven't taken over yet.

    However, A.I. is getting smarter faster.

    Can a neural network learn to recognize doodles?

    Google's Quick, Draw! will try and guess what you're drawing.

    It did pretty well with mine, and I did not inherit my dad's artistic skills. 

    Try it by clicking below!

     

    1212017 Quick Draw

     

    Kind of cool!

  • Millenials: Can’t Live With ‘Em … And Can’t Kill ‘Em Either

    Simon Sinek is a best-selling author (Start With Why), and gave a Ted Talk on how great leaders inspire action (that got 30 million views). 

    Recently, in an interview with Tom Bilyeu (co-founder of Quest Nutrition), he addresses the issue of  Millennials – and why they seem lazy and unfocused.

     

     

     

    Sinek points to four characteristics that help "create" this issue:

    • Parenting,
    • Technology,
    • Impatience, and
    • Environment.

    Sinek suggests that this generation is a product of failed parenting strategies … being told they're special without effort, being told they can have anything they want, and being handed trophies for showing up.

    Next, add technology to the mix.

    Before millennials, interaction happened in person much more frequently … meaningful trust-based relationships were built with time and effort, and when you were at dinner with friends, or watching a movie, you were at a dinner with friends … not on your phone.

    For added irritation, next add impatience (which is a byproduct of instant gratification).  

    Why wait for amusement when it's a text away?  You've got Netflix making video rental a thing of the past, Tinder making dating as easy as "swiping right" and Amazon making it so you don’t have to checkout when you go to a store.

    Is it any wonder that these kids have short attention spans?

    Now, put those kids in an environment where they're forced to realize you can't rush success, and you can't force meaningful relationships. 

    It's a recipe that has often terminated without a happy ending.

    I thought it would be fun to ask one of them, what they thought about it …

    So I asked my son, Zachary.  Here are his thoughts.

     

    I was born in 1993. When I was in elementary school, I was already using a computer almost daily, and a lot of my education and entertainment was computer-centric. 

    As such, I am a textbook “Millennial.”

    I use Snapchat too much, I relax by playing video games, and at times I can be unacceptably lazy.

    Because of that, I found this interview with Simon Sinek particularly interesting.

    I’ve been lucky. My dad did a good job of forcing me to work hard, and valued my efforts more than my results.  So, while I'm constantly reminded that I'm lucky I'm not working 80 hour days (and being forced to get a haircut every week) I do feel as if I'm a step ahead of many of my peers.

    I still find myself falling in to a lot of the "traps" Sinek describes – I'm reliant on social media;  I'm frustrated when my effort doesn't transfer in to immediate impact; and I struggle to not take my phone out in social situations. 

    I do think the issue is bigger than millennials. It's not just our generation that takes their phones out at meetings and ignores who they're with for someone on their phone. If you pay attention I'll bet you'll notice you do it as well.

    The difference, I think, is that millennials spent their formative years in this environment.

    This does effect the way we see and interact with the world.

    Will we ever measure up to your expectations?

    Perhaps not … because our generations approach the world the world so differently.

    Nonetheless, we are still capable of great things.  We are still driven to create and pursue great things.  It's just that we are playing a different game and keeping score a little differently.

    Understanding that, in and of itself, can help to close the gap.

     

    I’d love to hear your thoughts on the subject, and any tips you might have for someone relatively new to the corporate world. You can e-mail me at [email protected].

    Thanks.

  • The Internet in 1973

    Here's a map of the entire "Internet" in 1973:

     

    170107 The Internet in 1973

    Reddit via @WorkerGnome.

    Wonder what that map would look like today?

    Oftentimes, a small breakthrough has awesome and immense consequences.

    Onwards!

  • The Time Value of Time

    Einstein_1979_USSR_StampIn many senses time is relative. 

    You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand this quote from Einstein.

    "When you are courting a nice girl, an hour seems like a second.  When you sit on a red-hot cinder, a second seems like an hour.  That's relativity."

    It is about more than perception.  Here is something that highlights the relative value of time.

     

    The Value Of Time:

    • To understand the value of a year, talk to a student who has failed an important exam.
    • To understand the value of a month, talk to a mother who has given birth to a baby a month prematurely.
    • To understand the value of a week, talk to the publisher of a weekly newspaper.
    • To understand the value of an hour, talk to a couple in love who are separated and want only to be together again.
    • To understand the value of a minute, talk to someone who has just missed their train or plane flight.
    • To understand the value of a second, talk to someone who has lost a loved one in an accident.
    • And to understand the value of a millisecond, talk to someone who won the silver medal at the Olympic Games.

    Time waits for no one.  So it is important to remember to make the best use of the time you have.

     

    That Doesn't Mean Time Is Scarce Or Has To Be A Constraint:

    090614 time Time is often thought of as a constraint or a scarce resource. There are lots of phrases that highlight this type of thinking.  For example: I don't have enough time; I'm running late; I'm up against a deadline; There are only 24-hours in a day; or, I’m going as fast as I can. As you might guess, that list goes on further.  Yet, time does not have to be that way … it can be a tool instead.

    So, I started to think about how I used time.  Was I making the most of it … or taking it for granted?  It didn’t take much introspection to notice a few of the ruts I fell into.  I'm going to talk about one of them, here, because a small shift had a massive impact.  The thing we changed was our pace.

     

    A Change of Pace:

    When I jog, the beginning and the end are the hardest for me. Yet, after I find that initial pace and I settle into a comfortable rhythm, the majority of the run is relatively painless. My mind and body switch to an nearly automatic mode and I have time to think about many things.

    Work is similar in many respects. Once a team gets in a rhythm, work and progress are somewhat automatic. Breaking inertia is a challenge; but people recognize that it's a challenge. The more insidious problem is to fail to recognize that the work rhythm that's comfortable, and which produces progress, is still a rut. It doesn't stretch and challenge the team to strive for more. Yet, this stretching is what drives innovation. It's the thought we haven't had yet … and a new perspective that changes everything.

    Changing your pace can be an incredible catalyst to make that happen for you. For example, imagine that we put together a new portfolio in two weeks, on a wholly new tech platform, with new markets, and using new techniques. Then we tested, re-balanced and rebuilt that portfolio in one week. What we did, or the time in which we did it, wasn’t important. The important part is that it caused the team to work at a radically different pace than before. It was a sprint.

    Moreover, this sprint caused us to re-think what we do, and more importantly, how we do it.  Many of the innovations and new distinctions that we discovered through this process will work their way into other areas of our work,  and will act as a catalyst for us to re-evaluate the way we do things.

     

    A Challenge For You:

    I challenge you to consciously change the pace of something that you are already comfortable doing a certain way. The pace can be faster, or the pace can be slower … it doesn't matter.  Then notice what comes up for you, and what new opportunities and possibilities you discover.

    Time is a valuable resource. Take this opportunity to re-examine how you can best view and use time to make the most of it.

  • You Just Dodged a Bullet: The Holidays And Cardiac Mortality

    On Christmas, I saw Rogue One with my family, and was impressed at what Disney had done to bring back the likenesses of Peter Cushing and Carrie Fisher

    Peter Cushing played Grand Moff Tarkin, a character who they couldn't just cut from a movie featuring the Death Star so heavily (despite Cushing being dead since 1994).  In addition, the likeness of Carrie Fisher was brought back to play a young Leia.

    At the time, I didn't know Carrie Fisher would be dead 2 days later, from heart attack complications.  Only a few days later, her mother, Debbie Reynolds died as well (presumably due to a broken heart).

    Here is a chart showing cardiac mortality around the holidays.

      

    1227 Cardiac Holidays

    via the American Heart Association.

    Good news – if you are reading this, you are on the right side of the daisies.

    Let's keep it that way!

  • What Are Your New Year’s Resolutions?

    I got my yearly physical a couple of weeks ago, and while it went largely without any surprises, my doctor recommended a more thorough cardio workup.

      201711 Echo Cardiogram

      

    Good news, the tests went well – and I'm not pregnant (even though I'm pretty sure I saw the baby move).

    Clearly time for some New Year's resolutions about becoming more healthy, fit, and vital.

    What about you?