Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Language as a Limitation to Understanding

    Man acts as though he were the shaper and master of language, while in fact language remains the master of man. – Martin Heidegger

    Words are powerful. They can be used to define reality, obscure reality, create reality. They can be constructive and destructive, uplifting and demoralizing.  Their power is seemingly limitless.

    We created language to aid social interactions and to facilitate our understanding of the world, but it not only becomes a constraint in how we perceive the world, but a limitation in our understanding of new advances in technology.

    Before I go into where language fails us, it’s important to understand why language is so important.

    Language Facilitates Our Growth

    Because without our language, we have lost ourselves. Who are we without our words? – Melina Marchetta

    Miscommunication

    Language is one of the major keys to advanced thought. As infants we learn through watching our environment, reading faces and body language, contemplating. As we begin to understand language our brains develop faster.

    It's this ability to cooperate and share expertise that has allowed us to build complex societies and advance technologically – but it is becoming an increasingly inadequate tool.

    What happens when we don't have a word for something?

    The limits of my language mean the limits of my world – Ludwig Wittgenstein

    English is famous for coopting words from other languages; there are many cases of languages having nuanced words that you can't express well in other languages. 

    • Schadenfreude – German for pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune.
    • Layogenic – Tagalog for someone who looks good from afar but appears less and less attractive closer as you see the person closer
    • Koi No Yokan – Japanese for the sense upon first meeting a person that the two of you are going to fall in love 
    • And more…

    Expressing new concepts opens up our minds to new areas of inquiry. In the same vein, the lack of an appropriate concept or word often limits our understanding.

    An artist who has studied extensively for many years can often tell you a work is a fake but not tell you why. A professional athlete can recognize the potential in an amateur much better than a bystander. 

    They’re subconsciously evaluating factors that others couldn’t consciously evaluate. 

    Language as a Limitation

    When it comes to atoms, language can be used only as in poetry. The poet, too, is not nearly so concerned with describing facts as with creating images. -Niels Bohr

    In Buddhism, there's the idea of an Ultimate Reality and a Conventional Reality. The Ultimate Reality is the objective nature of something and the Conventional is tied inextricably to our cognition – heavily influenced by our language. Language conveys cultural values and biases, personal values and biases, and influences how we perceive “reality”.

    Reality is a construct

    To paraphrase philosopher David Hume, our perception of the world is drawn from ideas and impressions. Ideas can only ever be derived from our impressions through a process that often leads us to contradictions and logical fallacies.

    Instead of exploring the true nature of things or thinking abstractly, language sifts and categorizes experiences into our previous heuristics. When you're concerned about survival those heuristics save you a lot of energy; when you're trying to expand the breadth and depth of humanities’ capabilities they’re a hindrance. 

    The world around us is growing and changing faster than ever and our complexities are increasing exponentially.  It will only get harder to describe the variety and magnificence of existence with our lexicon … so why try?

    We personify the world around us and it limits our creativity. Many of humanity’s greatest inventions came from skepticism, abstractions and disassociations from norms.

    A mind enclosed in language is in prison.  – Simone Weil

    What could we create if we let go of language and our intertwined belief systems?

    When people come into my office, they often ask the question: When will A.I. have human-like consciousness?

    I could attempt to answer this, but I find it more helpful to deconstruct the idea because I believe it’s a presumptive question based on our inclination toward personification & past heuristics.

    For AI, Consciousness is likely a misnomer.

    What is consciousness, and what makes us think that for technology to surpass us it needs it?  The idea that A.I. will eventually have a "consciousness" is a symptom of our own linguistic biases. 

    Artificial consciousness may not be anything like human consciousness in the same way that alien lifeforms may not be carbon-based.  An advanced AI could solve problems that even the brightest humans are unable to solve, but, being made of silicon, may never have a conscious experience. It likely won’t feel emotions, shame, or greed.

    Humans Are The Real Black Box

    But if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought – George Orwell

    Depositphotos_63198269_l-2015

    Humans are nuanced and non-rational creatures. We’re prone to cognitive biases, fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes. We create heuristics on previous experiences, and we can’t process information as cleanly or efficiently as a computer.  We unfailingly search for meaning where there often isn’t any.  

    When scientists use expensive brain-scanning machines, they can’t make sense of what they see. When humans give explanations for their own behavior, they’re often inaccurate – more like retrospective rationalizations or confabulations than summaries of the complex computer that is the human brain.

    Artificial Intelligence is programmed; it is precise and predictable. It doesn’t rely on instinct and is only influenced by the coding used to create it and the data fed to it; this creates an inherent transparency. As well, AI is already showing evidence of being better than the experts in various cases (here’s a particularly interesting case with pneumonia detection)

    If we (and by we, I mean whoever created the specific AI) understands what they did to create it, if it’s performing consistently with its programming, and it’s getting the desired results then we don’t need to understand how or why it’s succeeding.

    Do you agree? What do you think?

  • This Year’s Most Brutal Campaign Ad

    2018 has been stranger than fiction in many regards … Regardless of your political leanings, some of the recent news has seemed more like a sitcom than usual. 

    For all the different ridiculous headlines, this still stands out. 

    Six siblings are running campaign ads against their brother

    Yes … You read that right. 

    Check it out

     

    Brill For Congress via Youtube

    Here are some quotes from Congressperson Paul Gosar's (R-Arizona) siblings.

    • "He just doesn't appear to be well"
    • "It would be difficult to see my brother as anything but a racist"
    • "Where is his integrity? I don't know"
    • “There isn’t a kooky, crazy, nutty thing that he isn’t a part of …What are we supposed to do?”

     

    Weird. 

    Make sure you're registered to vote in the upcoming madness (sorry, I mean midterms). 

  • Does Entry Level Still Mean Entry Level?

    We often hear millennials complaining about today's job climate.

    How can I get job experience if I can't even get a job to get experience?

     Is there any validity to that belief system?

    Apparently, yes. 

    According to TalentWorks, after analyzing a random sample of over 95,000 job listings they discovered that 61% of full-time "entry-level" jobs require 3+ years of experience

     

    4132018 entry-level-jobs-years-experience-1via TalentWorks

    Turns out "Experience Inflation" is a real thing.  Brings context towards the shift away from traditional education I mentioned a couple months ago

    TalentWorks also found that three, five, and eight years are the magic numbers for upgrading your job title.

    Mid-level jobs open up to you after five years, and senior level jobs open up after eight.

    I guess Millennials get a pass on this one … just this once

    With that said, we've had great success with the few high school interns we hired.  Perhaps the passion and interest that caused them to look for serious work, so early,  was a great way for them to get experience (and an early indicator of true talent)?

  • Why J.K. Rowling Doesn’t Have To Worry About AI Taking Her Job Any Time Soon

    In 2017, Botnik Group trained a bot on Harry Potter novels and set it out to create it's own Harry Potter book based on predictive text – Harry Potter and the Portrait of What Looked Like a Large Pile of Ash.

    Botnik feeds raw material into their predictive text app and sets it to work, then organizes the best sentences into a story. 

     

    via Botnik

    The result was hilarious (and inane).  Botnik's output blends the slightly "off" elements of machine-generated text with a human touch … and it resonated. 

    Since then, there have been many copycats and some are pretty funny.

    Here is an example, below. 

     

     Keaton Patti via Twitter

    You can find more examples here.  

    While it's clear that there is human intervention in these examples (normal neural networks would struggle to keep characters and the scenario consistent), it still provides a glimpse of the future. 

    While AI is progressing in leaps and bounds, it's unlikely that creatives have anything to fear any time soon.

    Below is an image we just had commissioned for our office.

      The Heart of Ai Is Still Human

     

    So, where is this going?

    I was talking with some people, recently, about something that Ray Kurzweil is attempting. Ray is training an AI to think like him. Every day he spends time refining the rules and working on having the AI use the frameworks/shortcuts/metrics that make him "him". His goal is then to use deep learning and reinforced learning to evolve past him so he can essentially ask his future-self questions. 

    In a way, this expresses the same sentiment I wanted to make the previous story about; that the heart of AI is still human.

  • The World’s 20 Largest Tech Giants

    Today, the technology universe is more uniform than you'd think.  All of the top 20 technology companies are based in America and China.

    Since 2013, China has added 5 to their side and America has lost 1. 

    Here is the list.

     

    Visualizing The World's 20 Largest Tech Giants

    via Visual Capitalist

    It's also interesting to note that there's a steep dropoff between the "giants" and the companies lower down the ladder. There isn't a single company with a valuation between $200 billion and $450 billion. 

    To put it in a different perspective, here's a pie chart showing the market capitalization of the top 5 tech companies in comparison to the bottom 282 S&P 500 companies. 

     

    via Michael Batnick

    It can be hard for a tech company to break into the upper echelons.  However, with tech, change is the only constant. 

    What are some of the companies you think have a chance to enter the realm of these giants?

  • Something To Celebrate …

    Capitalogix hosted a party for a private group of investors, partners, and friends this week.

     

    Image (2)
     

    We celebrated how far we've come and how excited we are about where we're going. 

    I am grateful for all the help and advice that got us here.  If the past is any predictor, we're going to need a lot more. 

    Thanks for being a part of our journey.

    Onwards!

  • Entrepreneur Weekly Podcast – AI and the Futures Industry

    You are the average of the five people you spend the most time with.  ~ Jim Rohn

     

    2Surrounding yourself with the right people, and joining peer groups like Strategic CoachGenius Network, Vistage, or the Entrepreneurs' Organization is vital to your growth. They bring together brilliant minds and industry transformers together in forums focused on innovation, creative disruption, and possibility. 

    Peer groups help you set (and raise) standards. They help bring new capabilities, but also new possibilities, new found energies and a reconnection to your purpose, mission, and values. 

    If you're not ready for that commitment, listening to podcasts from those people that have done what you want to do and gone where you want to go is a great step towards reaching those same goals.

    In that vein, I recently went to Alaska with some friends.  While there, I got to be on Entrepreneur Weekly with some of my close friends from Genius Network.

    The following podcast features me and these guys:

     

    The entire episode is less than 39 minutes. My piece starts around the 11:30 mark and goes for about 5 minutes.  I open with a pretty big claim … Check it out! 

     

    Pursue Passionately 

     

    If you understand what you really want and if you focus on that, rather than what you don’t want or all the things that are wrong; as long as you’re moving in that direction, and you don’t give up,  the result is inevitable.  ~ Howard Getson

     

    When I was a kid, I couldn't imagine being where I am today … nor could I imagine the path that took me here. 

    Looking back, it all makes sense. I didn't always know where I was going … but I was passionate about business, and I was driven towards a greater purpose.  From selling painted sand terrariums at the farmer's market to building an artificial intelligence powered hedge fund there's a common thread and a driving force. 

    Don't be afraid to take the risks that may injure your present to make way for your future. 

     

    The Fourth Industrial Revolution

     

    The advent of AI is going to be as dramatic for society as the invention of electricity.  ~ Howard Getson

     

    Artificial intelligence will solve problems and create opportunities on a scope and scale that is beyond our current comprehension. 

    I was lucky to be in the right place at the right time to build this company and capitalize on this opportunity.  Realize, however, that I had to recognize the vision before there was an opportunity to capture. 

    Life is about making your future bigger than your past.  There are plenty of opportunities out there if you know what you want.

    Let me know what you are passionate about.  I'd love to help.