About a month ago, I shared visualcapitalist's 2021 predictions to check how well they fared at the end of the year.
Honestly, the list was pretty good. It wasn't perfect, but you wouldn't expect it to be.
In that article, I asked this question:
What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022? - How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?
Let's be clear - most predictions are either vague and easily guessed (and therefore not helpful) or random conjecture.
But, there's value in prediction, and there's value in analyzing the data before you. The caveat is that prediction is better when it's applied to human nature and not the machinations of fate, and data can be a distraction if it's not being carefully curated and analyzed to remain relevant to your goals.
For example, I agree with their general direction for technology. Tech is continuing to grow in influence, and as Web 3.0, the blockchain, and AI mature as platforms for sub-technologies, I think their importance is only going to skyrocket.
Prediction can also be entertainment. I certainly catch myself looking for patterns and differentiators for everything from whether my meal is going to come to the table correctly, to who's going to win the Super Bowl.
I know the chances are low, but I still think it's going to be the Cowboys ...
It's always exciting for me to watch the Cowboys make the playoffs. Meanwhile, yesterday, the San Francisco 49ers ended the Cowboys season in the first round of the playoffs.
Only one team can win the Super Bowl. I know that. Yet, most seasons, somehow, I expect the Cowboys to have a real chance. That form of hope and wishful thinking comes with being a fan.
Whether you like football or not, one thing we can probably agree about is that geriatric white dudes shouldn't rap. At least ... that's what my kids tell me when I try.
Unfortunately, Cowboys owner, Jerry Jones, didn't get the memo.
Looking at the list, we see new editions like Clubhouse and Strava. Partially due to the quarantine, you're still seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams.
Just to pick out some of the key figures in the chart this year.
Amazon users spend $283,000
6M people shop online
TikTok users watch 167M videos
and, Zoom hosts 856 minutes of webinars.
Before 2020, I already thought that big tech had a massive influence on our lives. Yet, somehow this past year has pushed their impact even higher.
One other thing this chart also helps put into perspective is the rapid rate of adoption. As you look at different year's charts, you can see how quickly apps have become part of the cultural zeitgeist.
How do you think these numbers will grow or change in 2022?
When you ask children what they want to be, many likely say YouTuber, Influencer, or some other variant of that theme.
Influence is a complicated thing. From an abstract perspective, it's the ability to affect someone else's behavior. A high schooler can influence their classmates. As entrepreneurs, we can influence our employees, our industry, and more. You can have immense influence over a small number of people or a little bit of influence over many people - both still count as "influence."
But, in this case, many of the most popular influencers aren't famous for changing the world; they are celebrities or just famous for being famous.
Below is a chart of the top 50 "influencers" by social media platform.
In the digital age, it's worth acknowledging social reach as power. People with a large platform have the opportunity to exert enormous influence - and it's why you often see the spread of misinformation reach far, fast.
It would be interesting to see how many of these people use their platforms to be a beacon to their followers (rather than a beacon to attract followers).
It would also be interesting to see how much (or little) engagement many of these "influencers" actually have with their followers (and how that level of engagement relates to the growth or decay of their followings).
While I assume that the readers of this post aren't in the business of being "Influencers," Most of us recognize the value of influence – and getting more of it.
As a result, it is probably worth thinking about influence as an asset. And now is time to think strategically about how to grow and use that asset better.
I am writing this while flying back from watching a Cincinnati Reds game in their Owner’s Box.
It was a great experience – and reminded me of how much you can learn from watching what professional sports teams do.
Frankly, the whole business of professional sports fascinates me.
They have to do so many things right … just to compete. This includes how they build and manage their team, cultivate their brand, support their communities and causes … as well as how well they handle the practical realities of the logistical, operational, and financial challenges they deal with constantly.
It is more than a business. For the most successful, it is a mission or stewardship.
Personally, I pay attention to football more than other sports.
In 2017, I lightheartedly questioned the future of the NFL as a result of bad press around concussions, crimes, and more. I questioned it as a fan that's been a season ticket holder for as long as I can remember. My Dad and I had season tickets to the Eagles when I was young, and to the Patriots when I was a teenager. Recently, I’ve been a Cowboys season ticket holder for over 30 years. I questioned it knowing that the NFL wasn't really at risk. To support that assessment of the NFL’s stability, consider that (despite quarantine) the league-wise Season Ticket renewal rate is at 92%… equaling a 5-yr high.
Part of the stability stems from doing so many things right (or at least well). Which takes us back to the point that you can learn a lot from how sports teams thrive.
There's a lot to learn not only from the NFL's longevity, but from what it's like to be a part of a team, from the coaching, and the management side of things.
Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... which I’m reminded of each time I get to watch a Dallas Cowboys practice at The Star.
Think about it, even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choice to fill certain roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in a way that most businesses don't.
The picture, below, is of my brother's high school team way back in 1989.
Is it possible that most businesses are less prepared to win than an 8th-grade football team? At first, that may sound like hyperbole, but if you think about it ... it's likely true.
Losing to an 8th-Grade Team
Even middle school and high school teams have a playbook for offense, defense, and special teams. They scout opponents and create game plans. They think about how to improve and coach the team … and each player. They strategize and drill to perform well each game. Meanwhile, they also work to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.
Contrast that with many businesses.
Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today (or survival), and they often lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together.
The amount of thought that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business.
If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a normal business, what would happen to a business that operated similar to an NFL team?
Practice Makes Perfect
How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right.
Each time I've watched a Cowboys practice session, I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.
During practice, there's a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.
Every minute is scripted. There's a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.
They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter time periods than you'd guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span. And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but the skillsets as well (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).
They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, biometric tracking, and medical recovery devices ... but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets).
They don't just film games, they film the practices ... and each individual drill. Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablets as soon as they leave. It is a process of constant feedback, constant improvement, or constant renewal. Everything has the potential to be a lesson.
Beyond The Snap
The focus is not just internal, on the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.
During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been predicted, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems.
After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.
Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules, and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance, and they look to others for guidance.
Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.
Last week, ESPN televised a blow-out of Ohio's Bishop Sycamore high school football program by Florida's IMG Academy. The score was 58-0. But that has little to do with this story.
The supposed school in Colombus, Ohio, is not recognized by the state's athletic association … and the department of education doesn't list a school with that name. Despite that, they somehow scammed ESPN into scheduling the game.
Here are some of the troubling data-points.
The head coach of the team, Roy Johnson, has an active warrant out for his arrest
They falsely claimed they had multiple Division 1 college prospects
ESPN couldn't verify any of the players in their scouting databases.
The director of Bishop Sycamore claims the school is not a scam, and his son is in the program. On the other hand, the “school” currently doesn't even have a working website.
It's impressive that in this era of information access, a school could defraud the nation, not once, but twice.
I even heard that Cam Newton got picked up by Bishop Sycamore after getting dropped from the Patriots.
Not really … but this is an interesting story – and reflects how easy it is for “fake” things and get real coverage.
While the Olympics are more controversial this year than normal, I think most of us can appreciate watching the best athletes performing at their peak. We can also laugh at the cardboard "anti-sex" beds they put in the Olympic Village.
With that, I thought I'd bring back a video I shot with Sébastien Toutant who won a gold medal at the most recent winter Olympics. I met Sébastien while leaving an F1 race in Montréal. I had a chance to talk to him about what makes him tick and where he sees his future.
It's a great case study in self-actualization after you've reached the top of your proverbial mountain top.
There are multiple factors at work in high performance and in keeping yourself passionate and motivated.
1. Find Your Unique Ability
"Snowboarding is my passion. I was doing it every day ... Over time, It's my job, but it's still my passion. Every time I strap in on my board, I love it. You have to balance it. You have to keep the fun alive."
Unique Ability is where there's superior skill and it gives you energy, instead of taking energy. When you have to grind every day to become the best, and it's taking energy away from you, you're not going to stick with it.
When it lights you up, there's no limit to the hours or years you can commit to it.
2. Maintain Good Habits and Build New Skills
"Keep Snowboarding. Keep Training. Keep Trying New Tricks. The sport is moving so much, so you always have to improve your riding and invent new tricks. Push the sport to the next level."
Success is a war of attrition. You gain it every day through consistent habits and hard work. It's easy to talk the talk, but it's harder to set yourself up for success. Structure your life, and your environment in a way that makes success the default.
3. Stay Focused on the Future
"You have to make sacrifices to make it there. But it's worth it."
At my office, we practice the idea of "Measure Backwards, Plan Forwards".
To us that means it's important to take time to appreciate how far you've come ... yet, it's also important to stay focused on what you can still accomplish.
Your edge is decaying faster than ever before. Competition is growing not just from your competitors but from technology as well. Stay focused on next.
By the way, there is one other lesson this encounter reminded me about – opportunity is all around you ... waiting for you to notice and act! It would have been easy for me to filter out the "kid" standing behind me in a line after an event. Luck favors the prepared. Stay focused on what you want and keep your eyes, ears, and mind open for ways to get it!
2022 Predictions
About a month ago, I shared visualcapitalist's 2021 predictions to check how well they fared at the end of the year.
Honestly, the list was pretty good. It wasn't perfect, but you wouldn't expect it to be.
In that article, I asked this question:
With that, here are visualcapitalist's 2022 predictions:
Let's be clear - most predictions are either vague and easily guessed (and therefore not helpful) or random conjecture.
But, there's value in prediction, and there's value in analyzing the data before you. The caveat is that prediction is better when it's applied to human nature and not the machinations of fate, and data can be a distraction if it's not being carefully curated and analyzed to remain relevant to your goals.
For example, I agree with their general direction for technology. Tech is continuing to grow in influence, and as Web 3.0, the blockchain, and AI mature as platforms for sub-technologies, I think their importance is only going to skyrocket.
Prediction can also be entertainment. I certainly catch myself looking for patterns and differentiators for everything from whether my meal is going to come to the table correctly, to who's going to win the Super Bowl.
I know the chances are low, but I still think it's going to be the Cowboys ...
Posted at 03:38 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Games, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Science, Sports, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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