I'm grateful for the many groups I'm in, and smart people I know, because they're shortcuts to insights that can be hard to find.
One can also find inspiration through events, books, and more.
But, while it's easy to discredit mainstream news sources ... there's plenty of insight to be gained just from keeping track of various news sources. You have to take them with a grain of salt, and find the articles that provide a different perspective too, but it's still a valuable exercise.
It's part of the reason I share my weekly links and this newsletter. They give me a reason to continue to do research and stay on my toes.
With that, here are some interesting articles I found recently on advancements in technology.
In VR, You Can Become Your Own Psychologist - There's a new VR psychology treatment where you play both patient and psychologist. It has promising results in leading to detachment from habitual ways of thinking about personal problems. This is on top of already interesting VR technology around meditation and psychedelics.
Synthetic tissue can repair hearts, muscles, and vocal cords - 3D-printed tissues have been growing in popularity recently. Also making progress is synthetic tissue made of a new biomaterial in the form of an injectable hydrogel. It's durable and porous, both important qualities in creating wound repair that can handle the movement and stress put on hearts and vocal cords.
AI Is Discovering Patterns In Pure Mathematics That Have Never Been Seen Before- Mathematicians using computers to discover patterns is not new, but now deep learning models are not only assisting in analysis but formulating conjectures and approaches for formerly unproven ideas. This is a promising indicator for many spaces including chemistry, metallurgy, and material sciences (on top of trading of course).
DARPA Funded Researchers Accidentally Create The World's First Warp Bubble - Warp drives have been part of science fiction for a long time - and science for a decent amount of time as well. Warp drives have been theoretically possible since 1994 but were deemed "impossible" due to their use of theoretical materials and massive amounts of energy. Now, there's tangible progress as a real (but very tiny) warp bubble was successfully modeled. This is very fledgling, but it's always exciting to see science fiction become reality.
Renewables 2021 by IEA - I remember when renewable energies were not only ineffective but very costly. Now, 95% of the new electricity capacity from 2021-2026 is expected to be from renewables. Now, IEA bases their estimates on historical data, so they over underestimate the adoption curves. I would take that number as conservative. Just remember that capacity is different than coverage. Several countries are making a lot of progress on renewables, and several are making none.
Have you found any other articles you found interesting?
A few months ago, I brought my cousin Matt Pinsker, an expert in civil war history and Abraham Lincoln, to talk to an exclusive mastermind. He did an outstanding job of relating Lincoln's letters and history to the entrepreneurial mindset.
It was a hit.
So, I'm excited that I also convinced him to do a podcast with me, Dan Sullivan, and Steven Krein on the ultimate entrepreneurial president. Steven Krein is also my cousin, so it was a family affair.
We talk about revolutions, technology, future-orientation, and more. It's a great episode, and worth listening to for entrepreneurs, history buffs, and anyone looking to thrive in a changing world.
Looking at the list, we see new editions like Clubhouse and Strava. Partially due to the quarantine, you're still seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams.
Just to pick out some of the key figures in the chart this year.
Amazon users spend $283,000
6M people shop online
TikTok users watch 167M videos
and, Zoom hosts 856 minutes of webinars.
Before 2020, I already thought that big tech had a massive influence on our lives. Yet, somehow this past year has pushed their impact even higher.
One other thing this chart also helps put into perspective is the rapid rate of adoption. As you look at different year's charts, you can see how quickly apps have become part of the cultural zeitgeist.
How do you think these numbers will grow or change in 2022?
We had Nick Nanton and his crew in our office, recently, to film for a documentary on 'Getting to Next' – How AI is transforming the world and humanizing technology.
Nick is also working on a documentary with Chris Voss - who wrote Never Split the Difference. I spent time in D.C. watching Nick shoot with Chris and his son Brandon Voss, who is the president of Black Swan Group.
While I've done podcasts and interviews before, this was a surprisingly fun and cool experience for me.
It was also interesting to watch some of our more introverted data scientists in front of the camera.
The documentary just started shooting - but I look forward to showing you the finished product when it's ready.
Small distinctions separate wise men from fools. Perhaps one of them has to do with what the wise man deems important.
Socrates' Triple Filter
In ancient Greece, Socrates was reputed to hold knowledge in high esteem. One day an acquaintance met the great philosopher and said, "Do you know what I just heard about your friend?"
"Hold on a minute," Socrates replied. "Before telling me anything, I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."
"Triple filter?"
"That's right," Socrates continued. "Before you talk to me about my friend, it might be a good idea to take a moment and filter what you're going to say. That's why I call it the triple filter test.
The first filter is Truth. Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"
"No," the man said, "Actually I just heard about it and…"
"All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me about my friend something good?"
"No, on the contrary…"
"So," Socrates continued, "You want to tell me something bad about him, but you're not certain it's true. You may still pass the test though, because there's one filter left. The third filter is Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me about my friend going to be useful to me?"
"No, not really."
"Well," concluded Socrates, "If what you want to tell me is neither true, nor good, nor even useful … then why tell it to me at all?"
With all the divisiveness in both media and in our everyday conversations with friends, family, and strangers ... this is a good filter for what you say, what you post, and even how you view markets.
How Does That Apply to Me or Trading?
The concept of Socrates' Triple Filter applies to markets as well.
When I was a technical trader, rather than looking at fundamental data and scouring the news daily, I focused on developing dynamic and adaptive systems and processes to look at the universe of trading algorithms to identify which were in-phase and likely to perform well in the current market environment.
As we've transitioned to using advanced mathematics and AI to understand markets it becomes even more true.
Filter Out What Isn't Good For You.
In contrast, there are too many ways that the media (meaning the techniques, graphics, music, etc.), the people reporting it, and even the news itself, appeals to the fear and greed of human nature.
Likewise, I don't watch TV news anymore either. It seems like story after story is about terrible things. For example, during a recent visit with my mother, I listened to her watch the news. There was a constant stream of "oh no," or "oh my," and "that's terrible". You don't even have to watch the news to know what it says.
It's also true with what you feed your algorithms. Garbage in, garbage out. Just because you can plug in more data, doesn't mean that data is adding value. Deciding what not to do, and what not to listen to is equally as important as deciding what to do.
Artificial intelligence is exciting, but artificial stupidity is terrifying.
What's The Purpose of News for You?
My purpose changes what I'm looking for and the amount of attention I pay to different types of information. Am I reading or watching the news for entertainment, to learn something new, or to find something relevant and actionable?
One of my favorite activities every week is looking for new insights and interesting articles to share with you and my team. If you aren't getting my weekly reading list on Fridays - you're missing out. You can sign up here.
Getting back to Socrates' three filters and the business of trading, I often ask myself: is it important, does it affect our edge, or can I use it as a catalyst for innovation?
There's a lot of noise out there competing for your attention. Stay focused.
The six largest religions in the world are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism and Sikhism.
We often think about the differences between religions. However, the many similarities are obvious if you look (and may be indications of a more integral "truth".
Below is a wordcloud for each of those religions based on their major religious text.
If you find the name "Keith" it's because it was the translator's name, and the word "car" in the Hinduism wordcloud is an old-fashioned word for "chariot".
It's also worth acknowledging that this wordcloud is from the English translations so some words that may mean slightly different things in other languages can be all translated to one word in English. For example, it's very common in Biblical Hebrew to see different words translated into the same English word. A good example is Khata, Avon, and Pesha--three different ways of committing a wrong, that may all be translated the same.
Getting old is tough ... and it gets tougher the older you get. As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life become increasingly important as well.
2020 was a year of massive upheaval for many. Stress, change, pandemics, quarantine, new jobs, new goals ... or at the other end of the spectrum, lack of change, lack of a job, or lack of purpose.
Regardless of the reason, many people struggle to get up in the morning. This is a shame because life is so much better than the alternative (and life becomes even better when you learn to enjoy living and let go of what isn't serving you).
There's a Japanese concept called Ikigai that may help.
Ikigai centers around finding purpose as you grow older. Paradoxically, it makes sense to start the process as early as possible.
Here is an infographic that lays out some "Reasons for Being."
Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose are keys to making the most of your time.
The beauty of 2021 being a fresh start is that you can also change your approach and your vision.
The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) ... When two areas intersect, it creates something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission). However, where three areas intersect, it creates a pain point (for example it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it ... but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).
Worth examining and thinking about for a bit.
On a related note, here is a TEDx talk about the 9 common diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100.
Man acts as though he were the shaper and master of language, while in fact language remains the master of man. - Martin Heidegger
Words are powerful. They can be used to define reality, obscure reality, or create reality. Words can be constructive or destructive ... uplifting or demoralizing.
In a sense, the power of words is seemingly limitless. But that power cuts both ways. Language is also the cause of many of our problems.
We created language to aid social interactions and to facilitate our understanding of the world. However, language also remains a constraint in how we perceive the world and a limitation on our understanding of new things (e.g., ideas, advances in technology, etc.).
Before I go into where language fails us, it’s important to understand why language is important.
Language Facilitates Our Growth
Because without our language, we have lost ourselves. Who are we without our words? – Melina Marchetta
Language is one of the major keys to advanced thought. As infants, we learn through watching our environment, reading faces, and learning to infer things from body language. As we begin to understand "language," our brains develop faster. In this context, language isn't limited to the spoken word – intelligence grows with the catalyst of language, whether it's vocalized or not.
It's this ability to cooperate and share expertise through language that has allowed us to build complex societies and advance technologically – but it is becoming an increasingly inadequate tool as the world becomes more complex.
Language as a Limitation
When it comes to atoms, language can be used only as in poetry. The poet, too, is not nearly so concerned with describing facts as with creating images. -Niels Bohr
Language conveys cultural values and biases, personal values and biases, and influences how we perceive “reality.” Linguistic differences create a wedge between various political groups – even when people probably want similar things. In these cases, differences in language and perception create strife (rather than define it).
We use language and our past to sift and categorize existence into heuristics instead of exploring the true nature of things (in part because if you're trying to survive in the jungle, shortcuts increase your chance of survival by saving time and energy ... and accuracy is secondary to survival).
On the other hand, when you're trying to expand the breadth and depth of humanities' capabilities, those same heuristics become shackles (or at least blinders). Ultimately, they can lead to issues like groupthink and echo chambers that limit not only innovation but communication.
Look at groups like Democrats v. Republicans or Israelis v. Palestinians. In reality, there are more similarities than differences. Nonetheless, on a day-to-day basis, each of them focuses more on their differences than finding collaborative solutions for life's tougher problems (or focusing on the things they do agree upon).
Throwing rocks at our enemies also counterintuitively makes us feel better and promotes in-group unity. The problem is it comes at the cost of progress and true unity.
This is not to say that there aren't real (and important) differences between those groups. It simply recognizes that part of the problem is our willingness to accept "get-to-next" compromises rather than seeking understanding and committing to coming up with real and complete solutions.
Humans Are The Real Black Box
But if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought - George Orwell
People often refer to Artificial Intelligence as a "black box" - because the complexity and coding of the algorithms, etc. make it mysterious to a layman. But, Artificial Intelligence is programmed; it is precise and predictable. It is only influenced by the coding used to create it and the data fed to it; this creates its own form of transparency (and bias).
Meanwhile, humans are nuanced and (to some extent) non-rational creatures. We’re prone to cognitive biases, fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes. We create heuristics on previous experiences, and we can’t process information as cleanly or efficiently as a computer.
When humans explain their own behavior, they’re often inaccurate - what we hear is more likely a retrospective rationalization or confabulations than a summary and explanation of the choices they made.
All-in-all, it results in a lot of confusion in trying to understand world events, each other, and even ourselves.
Conclusion
I have friends on both sides of the political divide in America, and once you get past the rhetoric - there's a lot more in common than it seems. Excluding extremist groups, most are looking for unity, the "truth", and solutions to the problems in front of us.
Conflict is often a symptom, not the disease.
On a smaller scale, inside my company, I focus on creating a universal lexicon for our "intellectual shortcuts" because alignment starts with shared understanding. If the language I'm using means something else to another team member, even if we think we're moving toward the same goal, we'll slowly stray further and further apart.
As a practical matter, spending too much time moving away from each other (or measuring the distance we are from each other) creates a self-fueling irritation that becomes increasingly annoying, and ultimately caustic.
Today's problems can't be fixed purely with semantics and semiotics, but they are not bad places to start.
If we start from a place of agreement and common desire to pursue something worthwhile, the distinctions will call us forward rather than pull us apart.
For all his great writing, and all the complexities, he simplified stories into a few basic story shapes.
Here is a graphic that explains the concept.
Here is a 17-minute video of Vonnegut discussing his theory of the Shape of Stories. You can get the basic concepts in the first 7 minutes ... but he is witty and the whole video is worth watching.
You can explore a bit more elaborate version of his "Shapes of Stories" from his rejected Master's thesis from the University of Chicago.
A Look At The Future Through Today's News
Inspiration comes from many places.
I'm grateful for the many groups I'm in, and smart people I know, because they're shortcuts to insights that can be hard to find.
One can also find inspiration through events, books, and more.
But, while it's easy to discredit mainstream news sources ... there's plenty of insight to be gained just from keeping track of various news sources. You have to take them with a grain of salt, and find the articles that provide a different perspective too, but it's still a valuable exercise.
It's part of the reason I share my weekly links and this newsletter. They give me a reason to continue to do research and stay on my toes.
With that, here are some interesting articles I found recently on advancements in technology.
Have you found any other articles you found interesting?
Always looking for more sources to read.
Posted at 06:48 PM in Books, Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
Reblog (0)