Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Airlines are trying to make it easier to choose your seat for summer travel.  But, here is one I wouldn't choose.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Here Are The Top 10 Skills For The Future. (Forbes)
• The Surprising Reason We Procrastinate. (Salon)
• Where Do Our Thoughts Physically Exist? (EpochTimes)
• The Science of 'Transcendence' isn't Just Fiction—It's Surprisingly Real. (DailyDot)
• Meet the New Google Self-Driving Car: No Steering Wheel, No Pedals, No Problems? (GigaOM)

 

Trading Links:

• Will Russia Colonize The Moon? (PopularScience)
• Disruptive Innovations List 2014. (Citi Research)
• What Are The $10+ Billion Big Industries Of The Future? (Forbes)
• Share Of Teens Working Tumbles 42% Since 2000 In Labor Market Crisis. (Investors)
• The Average Stock Is More Expensive Now Than It Was At The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble In 2000. (BusinessInsider)

Across the world, the number of people who say the economic situation in their country is “bad” is climbing

Across the world, the number of people who say the economic situation in their country is “bad” is climbing — despite the much-vaunted recovery we all keep hearing about from politicians.

  

 
via Grant Williams.

The stock market is not the economy, and vice versa ... but when you are interested in one, it doesn't hurt to pay attention to the other.

Tech Immigrants: A Map of Silicon Valley's Imported Talent

Did you ever wonder where talent in Silicon Valley comes from?

Here is a map that purports to show that ... and a lot more.

 

 via Businessweek.

Some of the data is hard to believe.  Interesting though.

Related articles

Global Tech: Way Beyond Silicon Valley

12 Innovation Lessons from 2014 (Fast Company)

What It Is Like to Prepare to Speak at a TEDx Conference (Part 3) [The Video]

Here is the TED Talk I delivered at the TEDx Plano event.

It is about the time value of life.  I hope you like it.

 

 

via YouTube.

 

Part of the talk is about lessons learned during my father's year-long fight with cancer. 

One of my biggest take-aways from that struggle was about the time value of life.

Let me explain.

In finance, the "time value of money" refers to the principle that the purchasing power of money can vary over time (meaning, money today might have a different purchasing power than money later). In part, this is because the value of money at a future point in time might be calculated by accounting for other variables (like interest earned, or inflation accrued, etc.).

It occurred to me that a similar calculation applied to life ... or living.

Live Like You Only Have a Year Left.

During the last part of my Dad's life, I think he would have done almost anything for a little more time.

Things that used to be unimportant, or even mildly irritating, took on increased importance. For example, a dinner together became almost a sacred event; a kiss goodnight was truly heart-felt; and saying good-bye meant something ... because it could be the last time.

Nevertheless, as a result of that focus, he took more life out of that time.

Shouldn't we do the same thing?  Think about it ... We are never going to be younger than we are, right now.  We are never going to have more time to fix a big mistake.  Isn't it likely that the time value of your life, is worth maximizing?

 

Instead, "life" (the noun) often gets in the way of "living" (the verb).

That is why I called the talk:  The Time Value of a Life Worth Living.

 

Here are some other excerpts from the talk.

 

People Who Are Good Take Advantage of Opportunities.  People Who Are Great Create Them.

When I think back to that year, I spent so much time moving away from pain ... that I forgot to move towards opportunity.  I feel like I wasted so much time.

My Dad said the difference between good and great is infinitesimal.  People who are good take advantage of opportunities ... But people who are great create them.

I think what he meant was that when they see the opportunity, they move towards it.  They shoot through it.

It is easy to say, "I see that opportunity; but it's not the right time."  Or, "I see that opportunity, and I really want to remember it for when this is over."  And as much as I want to believe that's true ... deep down, I know that it's always a good time to take the right action. 

 

The Game of Life.

Do you like playing games?  That's like asking if you like surprises ... You like the good ones!

Life is like a blank game board.  And we get to choose the games to play. We get to choose the rules, the scorecard ... even how we show up, and when we play.   And together, that determines whether we feel like we're winning or losing ... or growing or dying.

I believe that, to some extent, how you do 'something' is how you do 'everything'.  And so, how you play games probably says a lot about how you deal with life.

 

To Improve Your Life, Improve Your Minimum Standards.

Minimum standards define your life, your accomplishments, and your sense of who you are.

Most goals are aspirational ... They define things that you know you want, and want to move towards.  But some goals really define the absolute minimum.  The absolute 'Yes'es and the absolute 'No's ... with no leeway.

Think about the water line when you are treading water.  If your nose is beneath, you can't breathe.  If you stay there too long, you die. So you have to kick hard enough to get above.  And it's only when you're above, that you can see the other areas that are falling beneath.  And it seems like there's always something falling underneath.

That's precisely why minimum standards define the quality of your life.  It is because so many of your thought cycles, so much of your effort, so much of your activity, is spent trying to kick back above ... that you don't always have time for more.

 

To Change Your Life, Change Your Perspective.

When you are 'stuck' ... a shift in role, or a shift in perspective, is often all you need to see a new path forward or a new possibility.

Have you ever been stuck playing a role that you knew didn't serve you?  Where you knew what the best next step was, from your perspective, but you had a sense that it wasn't the right action?  Sometimes it makes sense to step back and ask, "What role can I play that would get a better result?" 

That is often all it takes to change the game.  Other times, what it takes is the decision to play a new game.

There is a lot more, so hopefully you will watch the TEDx Talk.

Please contact me if you have questions or comments.   I'd love to hear from you.

Sign-up for our Weekly Commentary, here is the link.

 

 

Related articles

What It Is Like to Prepare to Speak at a TEDx Conference (Part 1)

What It Is Like to Prepare to Speak at a TEDx Conference (Part 2)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

The Game of Thrones is getting more popular.  Who do you think will win?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Sun Tzu's 33 Best Pieces Of Leadership Advice. (Forbes)
• Lessons From The Samurai: The Secret To Always Being At Your Best. (Bakadesuyo)
• Obama Is Finally Acting Like Lincoln. (The Week)
• John Oliver: Stop Calling It Net Neutrality; It's 'Preventing Cable Company F**kery'. (TechDirt)
• Scientists Discovered A Way To Reverse The Process Of Aging. First Succesful Organ Regeneration in a Living Animal. (Discover)

 

Trading Links:

• Record Numbers Renounce U.S. Citizenship---And Many Aren't Counted. (Forbes)
• 5 Dirty Secrets About the U.S. Economy. (Harvard Business Review)
• AngelList’s Newest Experiment: a $25 Million Fund to Invest in Angel Investors. (WSJ)
• The End of Behavioral Finance? (PragCap)
• Introduction of the Commodity Markets. (Voices)

Smart Money Expects a Short-Term Top, Will the Rally Continue?

Traders are often confronted by mixed signals. 

Personally, when I have to choose between something straightforward or something complex - simple is better.

For example, when large "Smart Money" traders show their directional bias, it often pays to follow in their tracks.

Another technique would be to bet against the smaller retail "Dumb Money" traders (because, historically, they are often wrong at major turning points.

However, if I have to decide between following "Smart Money" or doing the opposite of what "Dumb Money" does ... then in the absence of other information, following Smart Money wins because it is more straightforward and simpler.

Here is an example.

Smart Money - Dumb Money Confidence Index.

The chart, below, compares the bets made by small traders (a.k.a. the "Dumb Money"), to those of large commercial hedgers (a.k.a. the "Smart Money").

In practice, Confidence Index readings rarely get below 30% or above 70% (they usually stay between 40% and 60%). When they move outside of those bands, it's time to pay attention.

Even more noteworthy is when there is a wide confidence spread between the bets made by the Dumb Money and Smart Money traders. This type of sentiment spread only happens a few times a year. We often get substantial reversals when it happens.

Consequently, you might want to note this chart from SentimentTrader. It shows that the confidence spread is at extreme levels.

 

Conventional trading wisdom says that Crowds are usually wrong at turning-points.  That doesn't mean they are wrong all the time (yet, as discussed, it makes sense to notice when the Smart Money clearly disagrees). So, after such a strong rally, this is the kind of data that causes me to pay closer attention.

Could this be  a trend-break?  Will Smart Money start actively making Bearish bets?

Price is the primary indicator, and until it breaks down, expect that dips will be met with buying.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

In 2013, the United States Patent and Trademark Office issued 277,835 patents for inventions—the most issued in a single year.

 

Here is a list of the top patent-holders in the U.S.

 

via Popular Science.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• What Would Happen If You improved Everything by 1%: The Science of Marginal Gains. (Buffer)
• The Science Behind 'Brain Training'. (The Atlantic)
• 12 Rules for Learning Foreign Languages in Record Time. (Tim Ferriss)
• Device Aims to Translate Dog Thoughts Into Words. (Yahoo)
• These 11 Charts Show What's Wrong With The Modern Diet. (BusinessInsider)

 

Trading Links:

• NYSE Is Still No. 1, But Not By Much. (Wall Street Journal)
• Here's Your Guide To Monitoring The Economy Just Like Janet Yellen. (Morgan Stanley)
• Why Does Google Need So Many Robots? To Jump From the Web to the Real World. (TechCrunch)
• What Does an Economist at Facebook Do? (Marginal Revolution)
• Can Twitter Predict Major Events? The idea that the Twitter stream is a window into the future is persuasive. But is it true? (MIT Technology Review)

Does the Market's Complacency and Low Volatility Scare You?

The S&P 500 has been hitting highs in a rally that's had only modest sell-offs.

Here is a chart from BusinessInsider illustating Societe Generale's Andrew Lapthorne's research.

 

 

Lapthorne notes: "The number of 1% down days for the S&P 500 in any given year has averaged 27 since 1969; the S&P 500 has seen just 16 1% down days over the last 12 months. It has now been [almost 500] days since a market correction of 10% or more, the fourth longest period on record, and, as we show below, the annualized peak to trough loss has only been 5% compared to typical annual draw-down of 15%."

As you can see, recently, volatility has been dramatically below normal.

10 Life Lessons from Basic SEAL Training [Commencement Speech]

This has been making the rounds.  Good stuff.

 

Naval Admiral William H. McRaven, ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, delivered the Commencement Address at The University of Texas at Austin this year.

 

 

 

via YouTube.

These are lessons worth sharing.

10 Life Lessons from Basic SEAL Training

 

1. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.
“If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.”

2. If you want to change the world, find someone to help you paddle.
“You can’t change the world alone—you will need some help— and to truly get from your starting point to your destination takes friends, colleagues, the good will of strangers and a strong coxswain to guide them.”

3. If you want to change the world, measure a person by the size of their heart, not the size of their flippers.
“SEAL training was a great equalizer. Nothing mattered but your will to succeed. Not your color, not your ethnic background, not your education and not your social status.”

4. If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.
“Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie*.”

*For failing the uniform inspection, the student [in Basic SEAL training] had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand.

The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day—cold, wet and sandy. There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill: You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.

5. If you want to change the world, don’t be afraid of the circuses.
“Life is filled with circuses. You will fail. You will likely fail often. It will be painful. It will be discouraging. At times it will test you to your very core.”

6. If you want to change the world sometimes you have to slide down the obstacle head first.

7. If you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.
“There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.”

8. If you want to change the world, you must be your very best in the darkest moment.
“At the darkest moment of the mission—is the time when you must be calm, composed—when all your tactical skills, your physical power and all your inner strength must be brought to bear.”

9. If you want to change the world, start singing when you’re up to your neck in mud.
“If I have learned anything in my time traveling the world, it is the power of hope. The power of one person—Washington, Lincoln, King, Mandela and even a young girl from Pakistan—Malala—one person can change the world by giving people hope.”

10. If you want to change the world don’t ever, ever ring the bell.

“In SEAL training there is a bell. A brass bell that hangs in the center of the compound for all the students to see. All you have to do to quit—is ring the bell. Ring the bell and you no longer have to wake up at 5 o’clock. Ring the bell and you no longer have to do the freezing cold swims. Ring the bell and you no longer have to do the runs, the obstacle course, the PT—and you no longer have to endure the hardships of training. Just ring the bell. If you want to change the world don’t ever, ever ring the bell.”

To end, here are a few extra ...

“Start each day with a task completed. Find someone to help you through life. Respect everyone. Know that life is not fair and that you will fail often . . . [T]ake some risks, step up when the times are toughest, face down the bullies, lift up the downtrodden and never, ever give up.”

“Changing the world can happen anywhere and anyone can do it.”

Click here or the full text of the speech.

The Scariest Chart in the World Just Got a Lot Less Scary

Last week, the Jobs Report hit a big milestone.

The U.S. economy has finally recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession.

 

 via Calculated Risk.

It took more then 6 years to exceed the previous employment peak. However, this recovery took place during a period of declining participation - partially due to demographics - and that made making the  milestone harder.

Of course because of population growth, we're still "behind" in terms of total jobs, but at least this is one benchmark that's been cleared.

Many people called it the "Scariest Jobs Chart Ever".  Well, it got a lot less scary.

Nonetheless, there is still a long way to go.