Capitalogix

GPT-3: Boom or Bust?

GPT-3 was released by OpenAI in 2020 - and was considered by many a huge jump in natural language processing. 

GPT stands for Generative Pre-trained Transformer. It uses deep learning to generate text responses based on an input text. Even more simply, it's a bot that creates a quality of text so high that it can be difficult to tell whether it's written by a human or an AI.

GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. On top of that, it can be tuned to your specific use after the fact. 

via Towards Data Science

Here are some interesting GPT-3 based tools: 

• Frase - AI-Curated SEO Content 
• Emerson - AI Chatbot
• Viable - Customer Feedback Analytics Platform
• Sapling- Customer Service

Practically, GPT-3 was a huge milestone. It represents a huge jump in NLP's capabilities and a massive increase in scale. That being said, there was a frenzy in the community that may not match the results. To the general public, it felt like a discontinuity; like a big jump toward general intelligence.  

To me, and to others I know in the space, GPT-3 represents a preview of what's to come. It's a reminder that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is coming and that we need to be thinking about the rules of engagement and ethics of AI before we get there. 

Especially with Musk unveiling his intention to build 'friendly' robots this week. 

On the scale of AI's potential, GPT-3 was a relatively small step. It's profoundly intelligent in many ways - but it's also inconsistent and not cognitively concrete enough.

Take it from me, the fact that an algorithm can do something amazing isn't surprising to me anymore ... but neither is the fact that an amazing algorithm can do stupid things more often than you'd suspect.  It is all part of the promise and the peril of exponential technologies.

It's hard to measure the intelligence of tools like this because metrics like IQ don't work.  Really it comes down to utility.  Does it help you do things more efficiently, more effectively, or with more certainty? 

For the most part, these tools are early. They show great promise, and they do a small subset set of things surprisingly well. If I think about them simply as a tool, a backstop, or a catalyst to get me moving when I'm stuck ... the current set of tools is exciting.  On the other hand, if you compare current tools to your fantasy of artificial general intelligence, there are a lot of things to be improved upon. 

Clearly, we are making progress. Soon, GPT-4 will take us further. In the meantime, enjoy the progress and imagine what you will do with the capabilities, prototypes, products, and platforms you predict will exist for you soon.

Onwards. 

AI Meets Dr. Seuss

Dr. Seuss was recently in the news for stopping the release of 6 of its books. 

Whether it was a marketing ploy or not, I've been seeing a lot more Dr.Seuss content. 

To start, here's a video of an A.I. written Dr. Seuss book with animation. 

 

via Calamity AI

In addition, here's an A.I. remastered World War II cartoon written by Dr. Seuss with a character named Private Snafu. It's one episode of a series of shorts that were banned post-WWII, and it's one of the more tame episodes.  For an extra piece of trivia, the name of Private Snafu and his series of shorts was based on the military acronym for "Situation Normal: All F***ed Up". 

It's an interesting piece of history ... enjoy. 

 

via Adam Maciaszek

While produced by Warner Bros., these shorts which were made for the US military did not have to go through the Production Code Administration and thus got away with raunchier humor, foul language, and what we would today categorize as racist propaganda against the Japanese and Germans. 

While it's okay to acknowledge that we should be doing better today, I also think it's interesting and informative to watch older materials in the context and time period they were written. 

Racism isn't okay, but if you don't know history, you're doomed to repeat it, and art can be discussed and enjoyed within that context as well.  

 

The Shapes of Stories

Seemingly complex things are often simpler when understood.

This applies to many things.

For example, great writing is diverse and nuanced ... but its underlying structure isn't.

Kurt Vonnegut wrote a number of "Classics", including Cat's Cradle, Slaughterhouse-Five, and The Sirens of Titan.

For all his great writing, and all the complexities, he simplified stories into a few basic story shapes.

Here is a graphic that explains the concept.

Here is a 17-minute video of Vonnegut discussing his theory of the Shape of Stories.  You can get the basic concepts in the first 7 minutes ... but he is witty and the whole video is worth watching. 

 

 

You can explore a bit more elaborate version of his "Shapes of Stories" from his rejected Master's thesis from the University of Chicago.

Vonnegut's idea was fulfilled not too long ago--a computer was used to identify story shapes. Researchers extracted the emotional trajectories of 1,327 stories and discovered that there are six core emotional arcs:

• Rags to riches (a rise)
• Tragedy (a fall)
• Man in a hole (fall, then a rise)
• Icarus (rise, then a fall)
• Cinderella (rise, then a fall, then a rise)
• Oedipus (fall, then a rise, then a fall)

 For more on writing from Kurt Vonnegut:

• How To Write With Style
• Eight Rules For Writing Fiction

 

Chunking Higher

We've been doing annual planning for 2021.

The meetings are going well.  There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.

Nonetheless, I had a sneaking suspicion that sometimes what seemed like a dialogue, was really multiple monologues. 

The reason for the disconnect (or misconnect) was that the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other. 

I shot this video to explain how to fix that issue.   

The short answer is to chunk high enough that you truly start from a place of agreement.  Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.

 

 

 

I'll add one more concept for good measure ... Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages.  Before you can truly get alignment on what to do next, you have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.

With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of common language.  Words can mean different things to different people.  Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.

To summarize these concepts:

1. Make sure you have a common language
2. Begin with the end in mind
3. Start with the highest level of agreement
4. Make distinctions from there

Hope that helps.

A Look At Razors (No, Not That Kind)

In philosophy, a razor is a rule of thumb that allows one to eliminate unlikely solutions or actions in relation to a hypothesis. They're called razors because they shave off those unlikely explanations. 

Most people have heard of Occam's Razor ... even if you don't recognize the name, I bet you recognize the idea of abductive reasoning. 

When presented with competing hypothetical answers to a problem, one should select the answer that makes the fewest assumptions.

Essentially, the fewer assumptions a solution requires, the more likely it is to be true. As with any rule of thumb, it's a good starting point but is not definitive. There are plenty of exceptions to the rule.  It is still a good starting point for intellectual conjecture. 

I recently found out there are more philosophical razors, and they're all interesting.  Here are some of the more interesting ones:

• Hanlon's Razor - Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity;
• Hitchens' Razor - What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence; and
• Alder's Razor (also known as Newton's Flaming Laser Sword) - What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.

I've had to remind myself about Hanlon's Razor a lot recently.  Also the other kind ...

 

As I told my mother on a Coronavirus Quarantine Mother's Day, "Yes, I know I need a haircut and a shave."  

I'm planning on getting them on May 19th, because our part of Texas is opening up to a new normalcy that week.

I hope you are doing well and staying positive.

Looking forward to seeing people in real life again soon!

The Oxford Comma: Still Important, Even If Oxford Doesn't Think So

Grammar isn't everyone's cup of tea ... but it's something I spend a lot of time thinking about. 

Should I use an ellipsis here or a dash? Is this an unnecessary parenthetical?

Because of that,  the serial comma (commonly known as the Oxford comma) is surprisingly important to me. 

If you don't know what an Oxford comma is, it is the comma before the word "and" at the end of a list. 

I love it (and use it). I think it adds clarity in most situations, and while some lists make sense without it, it is helpful if not necessary in many lists.

Like below: 

 

Who wants that?

Use the Oxford Comma ...  Save yourselves the imagery. 

If you need a guide of when to use it, Check out this infographic ... Click it to see the whole thing. 

 

via PRDaily

A Beautiful Rendition of Hallelujah

Sometimes the real thing is worth paying attention to ...

In a world of fake news and technologically enhanced music, this performance of Hallelujah should do the trick. 

Watch and listen to K.D. Lang sing Leonard Cohen.

 

 via Tower of Song: A Memorial Tribute to Leonard Cohen

Masterful!

A Look Back at "The Crazy Ones"

I remember being mesmerized the first time I saw Apple Computers iconic "Crazy Ones" video as part of their Think Different campaign.

Steve Jobs originally recorded a version of "The Crazy Ones" himself, but chose to release the Richard Dreyfuss narrated version. 

 

via YouTube

Here is the text version of the script.

 

Here's to the crazy ones.
The misfits.
The rebels.
The troublemakers.
The round pegs in the square holes.

The ones who see things differently.

They're not fond of rules.
And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them, disagree with them,
glorify or vilify them.
About the only thing you can't do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They push the human race forward.

While some may see them as the crazy ones,
we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

    –     © 1997 Apple Computer, Inc.

Click here for extra material about the video and campaign. 

I think it has held up pretty well, and I had this piece of art commissioned for my office. 

There's a lot to be said for carving your own path, for pushing past perceived limits and accomplishing something hard to ignore.  

 

An Investment Guaranteed to Pay Dividends

I think about investments a lot ... that makes sense given my profession.

Yet, as my kids get older, there is an investment I made that paid-off in a big way ... and I want to share it with you.

Like many parents, I wanted to teach my children that, to a large extent, they control what happens to them. One of the first ways I did that was to set up a "compensation system" for them to earn video games.

Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games. I tried something different.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books.  Here is a photo from way back then.

 

 

Paid With Play.

Here's how it worked. When they were younger, 10 books was enough to earn a small game. When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished the requisite number of books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store or game store for them to choose any game they wanted.

When they finished a hundred books, they got a bonus of earning the next game system. That meant if they had a Nintendo, they could now also get a PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360.

How Can You Encourage a Jump to the Next Level?

There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortable reading a certain type of book, and didn't want to read the kind of books that I read.  So, I created a bonus system that counted a particular book as three books.  I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

It Is a Great Way to Learn About Your Kids.

I also used the bookstore visits to get a sense of how the boys were doing. For example, I might say "I notice that you read five books in that series, maybe you'd like this book".  Or, "That sure is a lot of science fiction; what was the last biography you read?"  For the most part, though, I didn't care what they read.  The key was to get them to want to choose certain books for their own reasons.  Ultimately, their preference meant they were learning to love reading.

It Puts Them In Control of Their Destiny and Rewards.

My younger son likes competition. He also broke or misplaced many things. So, in order to earn back the Game Boy unit that he lost, I challenged him to read five books in five days. These weren't easy books either. It was designed to stretch him, and also to teach him that he could read a book a night. The bet was that he either finished all the books in the allocated time, or none of them counted towards games or Game Boys. On the other hand, if he read a book a night for two weeks, not only would he get to have his Game Boy back, the books would count towards a game too. It worked like a charm, and we were both happy.

So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

As they started to get into their teenage years, I needed to up the ante a little. So, 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice. Both boys cashed in ... and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad.

I got what I wanted, though; both my boys love reading.  And know that they can accomplish anything they put their minds to … one step at a time.

 

 

That's an investment that pays dividends for a long time.

  

Executing Your Vivid Vision of the Future

Many companies have flashy mission and vision statements. Fewer have mission or vision statements that truly capture the spirit of the business or inspire proper action.

Likewise, some companies have identified their core values (but fewer have identified the values that truly represent the business and what it aspires to become) ... and even fewer have real actionable plans to get where they say they are going. 

This is easily fixed!

Cameron Herold is famous for helping entrepreneurs and other organizational leaders translate their "Vivid Vision" into a complete and actionable roadmap for their companies. 

He originally presented the Vivid Vision exercise in a chapter of his book, the Double Double.

The basic idea is that most entrepreneurs have an idea in their mind of what the company will look and feel like in the future (literally, a Vivid Vision),  but that employees can't read their mind.  The exercise translates those ideas into actionable direction.

Here is a short video of Cameron explaining the process. 

 

It's a fun and useful exercise.  Ultimately, you end up with a 4-5 page document.  Here is an example of Cameron's Vivid Vision for himself.  This can be used internally, for recruiting, and as a way to align with stakeholders.

He just released his fourth book  (called "Vivid Vision") – and it goes into more detail on how to align your business around a shared vision of the future.  It's terrific ... and surprisingly short.

And, if you want help generating or writing your vivid vision ... email Jennifer Hudye.  She can write it from scratch or take your draft and make it “pop”.  Tell her Howard sent you.

Cameron also has a podcast and offers some tools and exercises you can download.