I just shared an updated article on the difference between Skill and Luck.
Serendipitously, this article showed up in my feed from 2012. Instead of updating it, I want to share it as I wrote it, because it's still relevant, and it might lose some of its magic if I update it.
So, here it is:
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Title: Some Thoughts On Whether Luck Is Something You Create
Date: November 3rd, 2012
Doing the same things, the same ways, has predictable results. Sometimes, it is important to do things differently.
Here is a photo of me at the National Society of Black Engineers' Professional Development Conference, where I had the opportunity to present and participate in several panel discussions.
That is me, the Mitchell brothers, and Steadman Graham
I'm neither black, nor an engineer, and they aren't traders; so why would they ask me to present... and why would I say yes?
Value is often added at the edges. Likewise, good things often happen when you travel outside your comfort or habit zone.
I gained a lot from the experience. For example, I had a discussion with a nuclear physicist who talked about how they use computer simulations to model the effects of a nuclear explosion. That gave me great ideas about how to measure the effect of a particular trading system or algorithm on a market.
Luck does favor the prepared. That conversation could just as easily have been me simply saying 'hello,' shaking hands and moving on to the next person. To some extent, the ability to take advantage of opportunities comes from the intent to find them.
Is Luck Something That You Can Maximize, Or Would You Consider It Random?
It's possible that luck is both random and something you can maximize.
Here is an example. Many people consider the stock market to be random. Nonetheless, there are groups of people who consistently beat the market and trade profitably. How is that possible?
To explain, let's examine the decision to purchase Apple Computer stock. Regardless of whether that decision was based on gut instinct, fundamental analysis, or a technical chart pattern ... whether the price moves up or down the moment after that purchase is for the most part random.
However, if you make 10,000 trades over time, then your ability to make and keep money is about how you manage risk and opportunity. At that point, your system is not necessarily random. Consequently, it is something that you can improve.
Transform Results By Getting Un-Stuck.
Improvement means getting better and different results. And, as you already know, it doesn't make sense to continue to do the same thing, yet expect different results. So, a key skill is learning to recognize when things are "stuck" in a rut.
The trouble with many "ruts" is that you don't know you're in one, while you're in one. Consequently, it often takes a different perspective to become aware of new possibilities, opportunities, or best next steps.
Implications.
The interesting thing that this implies is that those opportunities were always there ... they just weren't there for you in your current state of awareness.
Similarly, recognize that many of the processes that we rely on limit our "luck" or opportunities precisely because they limit our choices. When this is done consciously it can be helpful. However, when it's an unconscious act, it can be dangerous.
In general, you can categorize many tools as either being multipliers or diminishers. Neither one is good or bad in and of itself. The trick is to recognize that you have a choice and that not choosing is still a choice.
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I think it holds up. What do you think?
Ranking The Most Popular AI Tools
Last week, I shared some of the tools I've been using recently to help run my business and life.
As we all know, several AI tools are taking the world by storm - notably ChatGPT, but others as well.
It only took ChatGPT 5 days to reach a million users. But the whole AI tools market is growing at a surprising rate.
VisualCapitalist put together a nice infographic on the most popular AI tools of 2023.
via VisualCapitalist.
I am familiar with some of the apps mentioned (such as Quillbot, Character.ai, or Hugging Face), but I don't use them. On the other hand, I had no prior knowledge of others (such as NovelAI, Janitor AI, and Civitai).
It's remarkable how much of the market ChatGPT currently controls on its own. In 2023, it is estimated that ChatGPT attracted 14.6 billion visitors, or more than 60% of all AI tool visits.
With that said, it's a marathon, not a sprint. The "feel" of this AI market reminds me of the dot-com bubble times of the late 90s and early 2000s. Many products took the world by storm only to be overthrown by a more robust competitor. For example, consider how few early web browsers or search engines still exist. I suspect that will be true of many early leaders here, too.
It isn't sexy, but it is a safe bet that Google's Bard and Microsoft's Copilot will continue to grow because of investment, acquisition, and distribution.
Remember, new technologies lead to new products and new platforms ... and the current crop of these AI tools are still only at the beginning of their cycles. I anticipate that many innovative frontstage products like ChatGPT will gain greater importance and profitability (albeit with less prominence) as they move backstage to become the backbone or plumbing infrastructure of various other products and services.
The development of new technologies brings about the emergence of new products and platforms.
AI capabilities and adoption are growing exponentially. It will be interesting to see what else stays on the list three years from now.
Posts like these are helpful reminders to consider technology adoption and hype cycles.
It's only the beginning ... Onwards!
Posted at 08:50 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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