There are a number of destabilizing events that make me hope for peace, love, and prosperity. There are increasingly dangerous active military conflicts, a contentious election in front of us, and a host of other issues related to the promise or peril associated with the clash between exponential technologies and human fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.
With that said, random worry isn't a good strategy. I like to measure subjective things as objectively as possible. With that in mind, this post discusses something called the Doomsday Clock.
The History of the Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 (following the successful testing of the first atomic bomb by the United States) to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons. The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world. The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.
In 1953, after both the US and Soviet Union tested hydrogen bombs, the clock was set at two minutes to midnight, which is the closest it has ever been to a global catastrophe. In recent years, the clock has taken into account not only nuclear weapons but also climate change and other emerging threats.
The Significance of the Doomsday Clock in Modern Times
Today, the Doomsday Clock remains an important symbol of humanity's vulnerability and the need for urgent action to prevent a global disaster. The clock serves as a reminder that we must work together as a global community to address existential threats facing our planet.
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board determines where to set the clock each year based on international events and scientific advancements. As such, it provides an objective measure of how close we are to destruction.
Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one. A list of the most significant existential threats to humanity includes:
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Nuclear War: The threat of atomic weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.
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Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.
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Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.
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Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not adequately regulated and controlled.
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Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.
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Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.
Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat. So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.
The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947. In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times. The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds. This was a small but significant shift. But, this year, 2024, there was no shift.
Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception.
via flowingdata
The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity. Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act.
And necessity is often the mother of invention.
We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions). Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges.
With collaboration among the brightest minds across the globe and private industry, we can solve even the world's most significant problems.
If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity.
Onwards!
Warren Buffett's Lifetime Legacy
Warren Buffet is 93 - and he just released his 2023 annual letter. Berkshire Hathaway saw record profits of $97 billion last year. If you scroll to the bottom of this year's letter, you can see he's got an almost 20% CAGR since 1965 and an overall gain of 4,384,748% since 1964. That is hard to imagine. It's even harder to do.
I think part of it comes from how grounded in reality he is. He focused on what doesn't change instead of what does and on who his "actual" competition is.
Buffet is not looking for lottery tickets; he's stacking little wins. There's power in that. He also pointed out that as stock trading has become more accessible - it's made daily buying and selling easier, but also more erratic. That, unfortunately, benefits the "house" more than these individuals.
Warren Buffett is a legend for many reasons. Foremost among them might be that he's one of the few investors who clearly has an edge ... and has for a long time.
From 1976 to 2017, his Sharpe ratio (excess return relative to risk) was approximately double the overall market. He even did well in 2021. Berkshire Hathaway passed a trillion in assets last August (up from $700 billion in 2019) – and is still performing well.
While many people consider Buffett to be an investor, I also consider him to be an entrepreneur.
At the age of six, he started selling gum door to door. Obviously, selling gum wasn't the key to his path to riches. So, how did he make his first million? Here's a video that explains it.
via Coolnimation
He made his first million at age 30 (in 1960). For context, a million dollars in 1960 would be worth about $10.4 million today.
Buffet has always been honest about his bread-and-butter "trick" ... he buys quality companies at a discount and holds on to them.
It is fascinating to recognize how much the world has changed – and yet how much it has stayed the same.
For one last bonus, here's one of my favorite quotes from his 2011 letter.
Further, the Pragmatic Capitalist highlights this lesson:
Fear, uncertainty, and greed are all hallmarks of every year. There are undoubtedly ebbs and flows to everything, but we are clearly marching towards greener pastures.
A great lesson to learn from Buffet is that the game isn't about the next year or even three years ... it's about a lifetime and the generations that come after us.
Let's continue to make our tomorrows bigger and better than our today.
Onwards!
Posted at 05:49 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
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