Capitalogix

It's That Time Of Year ...

It is that time of year again. We are in the midst of our annual planning for 2024.

If you haven't started planning for your business (or yourself), now is a great time to start.

The best place to start is to analyze where you are and where you've come from. I like to begin annual planning by reviewing the past year and looking back at where we were three years ago (in order to note direction, progress, and new capabilities). 

Then it is time to look forward.

The process is relatively straightforward. We start by deciding what the company's three highest priority goals are. With those goals as the base, each department (and manager) creates a big three representing what they can do to reach the company's big three. From there, we dive into quarterly rocks, SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, actionable, relevant, and timed), as well as the explicit tactical steps it will take to accomplish what we set out to achieve. We use the Entrepreneurial Operating System (EOS) to plan and execute our meetings. 

The meetings are going well. There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.

We've gotten a lot better at dialogue - but for many years, what we thought was a dialogue was often multiple monologues. 

The disconnect (or misconnect) was because the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other. 

I shot two videos that I think help teams get to alignment.

Thinking About Your Thinking

The first video discusses several techniques to enhance your decision-making. 

One of the ideas is something called "Think, Feel, Know." It explains that you have to deal with superficial thoughts before getting to deeper feelings. Then, you must deal with those feelings before you get to "knowing." 

Another technique discussed in the video involves adding time to look for "insights" after working on something. Those insights are often the seeds for something greater.

Chunking Higher

The second video is about how to chunk high enough to start from a place of agreement. Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.

I'll add one more concept for good measure ... Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages. To get aligned on what to do next, you first have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.

With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of a common language. Words can mean different things to different people. Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.

To summarize these concepts:

1. Make sure you have a common language
2. Begin with the end in mind
3. Start with the highest level of agreement
4. Make distinctions from there

Hope that helps. 

The Difference Between Gen Z And Millennials

I had friends in town for today's Cowboys game against the Giants. If you care, it was a massive win.

We discussed the difference between Gen Z and Millennials on our way back from dinner last night. 

During the conversation, my youngest, Zach (who is 30), called to tell me that his face had been sewn back together after a rugby game. 

Wonderful. 

But, it was a great chance to hear his opinion about the difference between Gen Z and Millennials. 

I'm paraphrasing, but he stressed that the main difference was that he lived through a transition of technologies that they didn't experience. 

For example, he is old enough to remember cassette tapes, floppy discs, boomboxes, and more. His first computer was an old-school Mac with a black-and-white display (how primitive). 

So, though he didn't see the prior shifts that I did (like the invention of the color TV), he is still aware of the shift between the "old world" and the "new world" ... and how radical the difference was. 

Meanwhile, Gen Zers were raised with the technology we see today as their only reality. 

As a result, they're much more immune to how awkward or cringy it is to share their entire life online, hopping from instant gratification to instant gratification. 

 

via blackbear

We hear a lot of doom and gloom from (and about) Gen Z - which isn't new. The younger generations are always derided ... in part because they're young.

Nonetheless, GenZ still believes the future is bright. 

What do you think about Gen Z? And, what differentiates them from Millennials? I'm curious.

The Cost Of Thinking Linearly In Today's Age

Humans can’t do a lot of things.

Honestly, the fact that we’re at the top of the food chain is pretty miraculous. 

We’re slow, we’re weak, and we’re famously bad at understanding large numbers and exponential growth. 

Our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.

It’s a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications. 

Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … RadioShack didn’t foresee a future where shopping was done online.  Kodak didn’t think digital cameras would replace good ol’ film.  Blockbuster dismissed a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes because they were anchored to the belief that “part of the joy is seeing all your options!” They didn’t even make it long enough to see “Netflix and Chill” become a thing. 

 

via Diamandis

Human perception is linear.  Technological growth is exponential.

There are many examples.  Here is one Diamandis calls “The Kodak Moment.”

In 1996, Kodak was at the top of its game, with a market cap of over $28 billion and 140,000 employees.

Few people know that 20 years earlier, in 1976, Kodak had invented the digital camera.  It had the patents and the first-mover advantage.

But that first digital camera was a baby that only its inventor could love and appreciate.

That first camera took .01 megapixel photos, took 23 seconds to record the image to a tape drive, and only shot in black and white.

Not surprisingly, Kodak ignored the technology and its implications.

Fast forward to 2012, when Kodak filed for bankruptcy – disrupted by the very technology that they invented and subsequently ignored.

via Diamandis

Innovation is a reminder that you can’t be medium-obsessed.  Kodak’s goal was to preserve memories.  It wasn’t to sell film.  Blockbuster’s goal wasn’t to get people in their stores; it was to get movies in homes.  

Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers but never asking them what they wanted.

Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do.  Being conscientious of your consumers doesn’t necessarily mean listening to them.  It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.

Tech and AI are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world.  It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible.  History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).

Opportunity or Chaos …  You get to decide.

Onward!

The Power of One Data Point

I love statistics.  But I also recognize how easy it is to be tricked by data.

Here is an example illustrating how factually accurate statistics can be misleading without proper context. 

Take a quick look at this chart showing Robotics funding in July 2023.

  

 

If you look at that chart, you might conclude that Pittsburgh is a Mecca of innovation in robotics.  Carnegie Mellon is there.  That makes sense, right?

However, there's an immediate red flag ... it's only for the month of July 2023. 

So the question becomes ... why? 

Turns out, that entire number is essentially the result of a single check to Stack AV to recapitulate what was Argo.  Argo is a Ford and VW-backed autonomous vehicle startup, and Stack AV is the founders' new self-driving startup. 

One significant move skewed the scale so strongly that it trumped major countries' expenditures that month. 

There's often an issue about not having enough data to be statistically significant.  Another common issue is confusing coincidence with causality.

This isn't meant to undermine the effect of one data point on a chart.  For example, think about Taylor Swift's impact on the economy.  Taylor's Eras Tour has already netted more than $100M but also reportedly has had a $5B impact on the economy.

Cincinnati reported that Taylor Swift's Concert Tour brought $90M to their city in two days.  Her 60,000 attendees pushed the city's hotels to 98% occupancy rates.  Beyond that, her concert-goers also consumed the city's restaurants, bars, tourism, and retail. 

Here is a different example of accurate data leading to an unusual conclusion, At a Genius Network meeting this week, the creator of OsteoStrong and the X3 bar spoke about people's misconceptions about fitness and workouts.  One point, in particular, caught my attention.  He claimed that most people only get stronger as a direct result of their workouts about ten times in their lives.  This isn't true of competitive athletes or weightlifters - but the average gym goer.  Why? His logic was you only get stronger when you take your muscle to failure, past its previous limits.  Most people rarely work out to exhaustion and don't keep track of their best.  They often stop one rep - or even half a rep - before there's a meaningful improvement. 

A good lesson for life. 

As entrepreneurs, we've all seen people get the "one big break" or the "one domino" that led to success.  The goal is often to be good enough that you only have to get lucky once.

While one data point can ruin a statistic, it can also change your life. The power of an inflection point. 

Hope that helps.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 8th, 2023

Reports of bed bug infestations in Paris are so bad the government is deploying sniffer dogs to inspect trains.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Collaboration With Generative AI is So Tricky—And How to Make It Work. (Fortune)
• AI-Assisted Decision-Making. (Every)
• 10 Questions to See If You Have a Great Idea. (Entrepreneur)
• At What Age Do You Hit the Peak of Your Career? (Economist)
• Rethinking Flow States by Introducing 9 Antecedents. (PsychologyToday)

 

Trading Links:

• Visualizing the Pyramid of Financial Risk. (Advisor)
• The Invisible Hand: AI in Financial Markets and Algorithmic Trading. (Medium)
• India Surpassed China as the World's Most Populous Country this Year. (UnitedNations)
• 10 Fast Food Chains Ranked by Average Sales Per Store in the U.S. (Infographic)
• Even Michael Lewis Can't Make a Hero Out of Sam Bankman-Fried. (NYT)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 1st, 2023

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Sphere's First Show Looks Like It Was a Mind-Blowing Spectacle. (TheVerge)
• How to Use ChatGPT's New Image Features. (Wired)
• Nvidia Outlines Jensen 'Huang's Law' of Computing. (Tom's Hardware)
• They Studied Dishonesty. Was Their Work a Lie? (NewYorker)
• Sam Altman Says AI Systems Will Automate Some Tasks But Also Lead to 'New and Much Better Jobs'. (Insider)

 

Trading Links:

• Money Mentor Trading Podcast – Sunny Harris Interviews Howard Getson. (Podcasters)
• ‘AI is Not a Writer:' Why the Writers' Strike Deal Matters Beyond Hollywood. (TheHustle)
• How to Copyright Your AI Creations. (HackerNoon)
• Elon Musk Says One of His Ventures Will Reach a $1 Trillion Market Cap by 2030. (TheStreet)
• A Top Economist Who Studies AI Says It Will Double Productivity in the Next Decade: ‘You Need to Embrace this Technology and Not Resist It'. (Fortune)

Tikkun Olam & Kintsugi: Happy Rosh Hashanah

Yesterday, I celebrated the Jewish New Year - Rosh Hashanah - with my family and our friend Ben Hardy.

Ben joined us for services and lunch at one of our favorite local delis.

Next week is Yom Kippur, which is the Day of Atonement in the Jewish religion.

As part of the holiday, participants read a list of sins (available here), apologize for those committed, and ask for forgiveness.  Read the list ... much has changed, but apparently, human nature hasn’t.  

Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

To help mark the importance of the day, participants read a poem called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt that captures the spirit. 

Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor), or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.  Your choices about these things have very real power to create the experience and environment you will live in during the next year.

As we shared our holiday with Ben, I started to think about what lessons from other cultures we could leverage in our interpretation of the day.  One concept came straight to mind ... the Japanese art of Kintsugi. In Kintsugi, the Japanese mend broken pottery by gilding the fractures with gold, silver, or platinum.  This treats the breaks and damage as an element that adds value and enhances the beauty of an object (preserving a part of its history) - rather than something that simply diminishes the object. 

This concept is an excellent reminder as we try to repair some of the breaks happening in the American culture war, and the damages of the isolation and death during COVID.  Our steps backward are just as much a part of our journey as our steps forward.  As you heal, it is also important to remember to heal the world around you as well.  In the Jewish faith, that concept is called Tikkun Olam. 

One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you’re only ever one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others.  As you recognize and repent for your sins, it’s important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well. 

100 Days Left

There are just over 100 days before the start of 2024.  Many will spend those 100 days stressing about the upcoming elections, grumbling about how 2020 was mishandled, and pretending it’s the universe’s fault they didn’t accomplish what they set their mind to ... yet, 100 days is enough time to sprint, to make a change, and to end the year on a high note. 

There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet.  What can you do?  What will you do?

What could you do to make the life of someone around you better?  Likewise, how can you let others know you’re thankful for them?

To reference a book by Ben Hardy (and Dan Sullivan), transformational change is often easier than incremental change (because you don’t have to drag the past forward).

So, what can you do that would trigger 10X results?   Will you?

I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  

Best wishes for a great day, and an even better year!

Media Bias and You in 2023

Information is Power.

Consequently, your choice of information source heavily contributes to your perceptions, ideas, and worldview.

Coincidently, news sources are a lightning rod for vitriol and polemic.

I am still somewhat surprised by the abject hatred I hear expressed toward a particular news source by those who hold an opposing bias.  This often leads to claims of fake news, delusion, and partisan press.  Likewise, it is common to hear derision toward anyone who consumes that news source.

Perhaps the reality is that most sources are flawed – and the goal should simply be to find information that sucks less?

It's to the point where if you watch the news, you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news, you're uninformed. 

News sources aren't just reporting the news ... they're creating opinions and arguments that become the news.  Moreover, many consumers don't care enough to think for themselves or to distinguish facts from opinions.

Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank on various scales.  It has default options and over 1400 sources you can add to the interactive version.  You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details.  It gets updated every year, and this year's just got released.

via Ad Fontes Media

I once spent fifteen minutes arguing about how you know whether the information in this chart is accurate.  If you're curious about their methods, click here. 

The "new normal" is to distrust news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

Perhaps even more dangerous is the amount of fake news and haphazard research shared on social media.  Willful misrepresentations of complex issues are now a "too common" communication tactic on both sides ... and the fair and unbiased consideration of issues suffers.  

Social media spreads like wildfire, and the damage is done by the time it has been debunked (or proven to be an oversimplification).  Once people are "convinced," it is hard to get beyond that. 

In reality, things aren't as bleak as they seem.  People agree on a lot more than they say they do.  It is often easier to focus on "us" versus "them" rather than what we agree upon jointly.  This is true on a global scale.  We agree a lot.  Most Democrats aren't socialists, and most Republicans aren't fascists ... and the fact that our conversation has drifted there is intellectually lazy.

This idea that either side is trying to destroy the country is clearly untrue (OK, mostly untrue).  There are loonies on the fringes of any group, but the average Democrat is not that unlike the average Republican.  You don't have to agree with their opinions, but you should be able to trust that they want our country to succeed. 

I don't know that we have a solution.  But there is one common "fake news" fallacy I want to explain at least a little. 

It's called the Motte and Bailey fallacy.  It's named after a style of medieval castle prioritizing military defense.

Launceston Castle via Chris Shaw, CC BY-SA 2.0

On the left is a Motte, an artificial mound often topped with a stone structure, and on the right is a Bailey, the enclosed courtyard.  The Motte serves to protect not only itself but also the Bailey. 

As a form of argument, an arguer conflates two positions that share similarities.  One of the positions is easy to defend (the Motte), and the other is controversial (the Bailey).  The arguer advances the controversial position, but when challenged, insists they're only advancing the moderate position.  Upon retreating, the arguer can claim that the Bailey hasn't been refuted or that the critic is unreasonable by equating an attack on the Bailey with an attack on the Motte. 

It's a common method used by newscasters, politicians, and social media posters alike.  And it's easy to get caught in it if you don't do your research. 

Conclusion

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe ... so it is hard to change a belief (even in the face of contrary evidence). 

But, hopefully, in learning about these fallacies, and being aware, we do better. 

I will caution that blind distrust is dangerous – because it feels like critical thought without forcing you to think critically.

Distrust is good ... but too much of a good thing is bad. 

Not everything is a conspiracy theory or a false flag.

Do research, give more credence to experts in a field - but don't blindly trust them either.  How well do you think you're really thinking for yourself?

We live in a complicated world that is getting more complex. 

Hopefully, knowing this encourages you to get outside your bubble and learn more about those with whom you disagree.

Who knows ... Something good may come from it?

Camp Kotok: Back Again!

I was just in Maine at Camp Kotok, a private gathering of economists, fund managers, and other financial industry professionals. 

There was limited phone service or access to the Internet… so people had to talk with each other.  And unlike most of my schedule, almost everything happened outside.  Discussions, while vigorous, often take place while fishing or grilling. 

At a past Camp Kotok, I did this interview with Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors' Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist.  Check it out. 

 

Cumberland Advisors via YouTube

 

Camp Kotok is an interesting place. The event transformed from a simple retreat after 9/11 ... when many attendees experienced the WTC collapse and came together for some fellowship and to discuss their experiences.  From then on, attendance grew, and the gathering evolved. 

As a side note, before the gathering became known as Camp Kotok, it was referred to as the “Shadow Fed” (in part because of the people who attend).

Attendees are bound to “Chatham House Rules” (participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed).  However, general thoughts, ideas, forecasts, and comments can be discussed and published.

On this trip, I talked with David Kotok about the event, what it means, and how it’s grown.

The intent of the participants (and the environment) helps create a platform for meaningful and productive conversations about the opportunities and obstacles facing America and the world. 

Every year, I come back with new ideas and fresh perspectives on things I forget to think about. 

AI was on everyone's mind.  The financial industry is changing quickly, and I’m confident that advanced technology will become an even bigger driver. 

In general, economically, the mood was cautiously optimistic to bullish. 

Remember, it is an election year!

Social Media Is Changing Everything ... 10+ Years Later

In 2009, I wrote an article highlighting the audacious amount of texts and data my then-16-year-old son was using compared to the rest of the family ... It's funny to look back on.

Here is an excerpt from that post. 

_______

My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

 Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

• My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
• I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
• My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
• My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

_______

Fourteen years later, I send more text messages than my son, and we both use multiples of that amount of data a month. 

I also remember scoffing at my son having his phone on hand at meetings - that it was a distraction. And yet, here I am, phone on my desk at meetings. But, e-mail is just as important as it was in 2009. 

One of the things we miss in discussions about generations is that the trends of the younger generation are often adopted by the previous - even if they're not as tech literate. 

Technology changes cultures for better or worse ... but it's hard to look at the impact of social media and believe it hasn't been deleterious. 

The promise and peril of technology!