Capitalogix

Weekly Commentary through August 8th 2008

The Markets are up, but relatively trendless.  Yes the recent lows have held, and I'm seeing higher lows (and that is a bullish sign).  However, recently, the thing to note has been the markets' volatility.  For the Dow, there have been seven 200-point up or down days and two 300-point up days ... but in that time, the Dow is only up 36 points. It is tough to hold trades overnight in this type of trading environment.  Going home bullish or bearish hasn't led to peaceful sleep lately.

Here are some other stats to ponder.  First, 300-point rallies are pretty normal during bear markets (and in the beginning of new bull markets).  Also, It is quite normal to have intermediate term rallies in bear markets that last 2-3 months. The last one lasted 2 months; but only had narrow leadership in the Commodities.  This time the leadership is much broader (most everything, except Commodities).

Also this week, the Fed held rates steady, and the US Dollar Index now trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a breakout from its five-month trading range.

Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

• IPOs at 5-Year Low, Worldwide (WSJ)
• Wharton Finance Professor, Jeremy Siegel Calls a Market Bottom (Morningstar)
• Rackspace IPO loses 20% on first day of trading (WSJ)
• President Bush: "Wall Street got drunk"..."and now it's got a hangover" (Wall $t. Folly)
• Does the 4-Year Presidential Cycle have predictive power in the markets? (CXO Advisory)
• Too many ETFs, too little volume; the weakest are closing (Bespoke)
• Crisis Averted: Improvisation is one thing, Policy is another (NYTimes)
• Foreign money buying US properties at deep discounts (NYPost)

And, a little bit extra:

• Big Brother is watching: Apple shuts down "I Am Rich" Application for iPhones (Download Squad)
• Innovations show how water-starved countries could solve their food crises (NYTimes)
• At $6BB spent, Olympic Security is No Game; but they do ride Segways (BusinessWeek)
• Twitter's micro-blogging success suggests I'm old, because I still don't get it (Fortune)
• Caffeine Myths De-Bunked; go get a cup of coffee (NYTimes)

Cool Chart Showing Olympic Medals Won

Technical traders use a lot of data visualization tools.  So it isn't surprising that this tendency spills over into other areas of my life.  Consequently, I enjoy chart porn like this map showing which countries won Olympic medals.  It is interactive, and fun to play with for a minute or two.

(NYTimes)

Olympic Extra

In China, "8" is believed to be a most powerful, and lucky, number.

So it is not surprising that Chinese began the Olympics on 08-08-08 at 8:08 PM.

Here is a link to Wikipedia's info page  and NBC's covering these Olympic games.

And here is a link to Wired's coverage of the tech behind the games.

An Olympic Attempt At Humor

As the Olympics begin, I saw this and thought it was worth sharing.

The artist/author has a blog called "Indexed" here, and a book here.

By the way, the Court threw out fine against CBS for airing the wardrobe malfunction. (DMN)

Let's just say she captured a few eyeballs; in most replayed moment in Tivo history. (CNet)

Market Commentary from August 1, 2008

Three out of the four trading days this week experienced 200-point daily moves in the Dow.  Some were up, some were down.  Still the recent low has held.

The following picture shows charts of the S&P 500 Index on two timeframes: daily and 5-minute bars.

There are clearly a series of higher lows (on both charts).  Nonetheless, the market has been fragile lately.  A move up from here would be a big confidence booster.

Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

• Hulbert Says The Stars Have Yet to Align to End the Bear Market (NYTimes)
• Big Mac Index: currencies are expensive in Europe, cheap in Asia (The Economist)
• Real Estate is down; so flip a website instead (NYTimes)

And, a little bit extra:

• Nassim Nicholas Taleb auther of Fooled by Randomness & Black Swan profiled (TimesOnline)
• Randy Pausch Gave His Last Lecture (Big Picture)
• Can you use technical analysis on baseball? (Daily Options Report)
• How Are They Doing Now? From "Good to Great" to not-so-hot (NYTimes Freakonomics Blog)

Innovating is Thought Leadership

I've been thinking a lot about innovation lately. It is a form of "thought leadership" ... intuitively identifying the underlying issues and figuring-out the best things to do, now, to transform the situation and create new possibilities.

To paraphrase Peter Drucker, innovation is a tool that transforms challenge into an opportunity for a different business or service. It is capable of being presented as a discipline, capable of being learned, capable of being practiced. 

Learning and innovation go hand in hand. It is often folly to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow. This is a close cousin to the idea that "you are either growing or dying."

Japanese Gadget Innovation

Chindōgu is the Japanese art of inventing ingenious everyday gadgets that, on the face of it, seem like an ideal solution to a particular problem.

When allergies bother you, why carry tissue?

 

When you're a busy parent and don't have time to clean, why mop?

When you're in the mood for a hot quickee, what you need is a good blow.

Don't be a slave to fashion, be a salaryman.

Here are a few other links to see more of these. (Linkinn.net and Picdit)

While you are at it, translate your name into Japanese.